This softness aligned with a new short-term support zone shifting higher to $2.913–$2.861, tightening the range for active traders. A breakout above $3.131 opens the door to test the intermediate pivot at $3.238, with stronger resistance seen near the 50-day moving average at $3.300—levels where sellers are likely to re-enter.
Weather Outlook Cools Bullish Enthusiasm
Despite technical gains, weather-driven demand remains subdued. NatGasWeather forecasts mild temperatures across the Midwest, Northeast, and parts of the South through September 8, reducing cooling demand. Atmospheric G2 also projects below-average temperatures for the East into mid-September. Light national demand continues to weigh on any sustained upside, reinforcing the need for stronger catalysts to hold above $3.00.
Is Tighter Supply Enough to Offset Cooling Demand?
Last week’s EIA storage build of just +18 Bcf came in well below the +27 Bcf consensus and the 5-year average of +38 Bcf, offering some support. Storage levels are now -3.5% year-over-year but remain +5.0% above the 5-year seasonal norm. LNG exports remain steady at 15.2 Bcf/d, while lower-48 gas demand was 71.2 Bcf/d (+1.2% y/y).
Meanwhile, active gas rigs declined by 3 last week to 122, just off the recent 2-year high. Although rig counts are rising from last year’s lows, the drop this week could support price stability if production doesn’t quickly rebound.
Market Forecast: Bearish Near $3.30 Unless Production Drops Deepen