Will Adelaide continue its winning ways, or can Collingwood rediscover its early-season form and cause an upset?

Follow it LIVE: Adelaide v Collingwood from 7.10pm ACST

SUMMARY

THE BUDDING rivals begin their finals campaigns on different trajectories even after sharing top spot on the ladder for the last 15 rounds of the season.

Collingwood was the early pacesetter as it pulled out to a 14-2 record and was well down the path toward a top-two finish, leading the ladder by as much as two-and-a-half wins at one stage. But a late-season slump with five defeats from its last seven matches allowed a red-hot Adelaide to claim the minor premiership with nine straight victories to end its season, including a rousing triumph over the Magpies. 

The Crows return to finals for the first time since 2017 after a season where they have broken down barriers including snapping an 11-match winless streak against the Magpies. Despite that lopsided record over more than eight years, recent history has shown that the sides are more evenly matched with their past six clashes decided by a combined 25 points.

Izak Rankine’s suspension for directing a homophobic slur at a Magpies player during their round 23 clash will continue to hurt the Crows especially with Josh Rachele not quite ready to return from injury. Max Michalanney has recovered from a hamstring strain to bolster the Crows’ defence as it tackles a Magpies attack set to include Brody Mihocek and Beau McCreery after the duo made the most of the pre-finals bye to shake off injury concerns.

Where and when: Adelaide Oval, Thursday September 4, 7.10pm ACST

TEAM NEWS

Collingwood has confirmed the axing of Dan McStay, with Mason Cox recalled for just his ninth game this season and youngster Wil Parker also included.

McStay has made way alongside the injured Jeremy Howe, while there is again no room for Bobby Hill (personal), although forward Beau McCreery (foot) is fit to play.

The Crows have recalled young defender Max Michalanney and forward Luke Pedlar, who have both recovered from hamstring injuries, while Sid Draper and Billy Dowling have been omitted.

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 23: Adelaide 9.5 (59) d Collingwood 8.8 (56) at Adelaide Oval

Adelaide overcame a sluggish start to snap a 10-match losing streak against Collingwood with a three-point victory at Adelaide Oval. The Magpies burst out of the blocks to take a 25-point lead into the first break before the Crows surged back with five goals to none in the second term. It was an arm wrestle from the main break as both sides only booted three more goals despite the Magpies dominating the territory with 71-37 inside 50s for the game. Nick Daicos booted a monster goal in the dying stages to give the Pies a sniff before the Crows held on in a contentious finish. 

Round 10: Collingwood 11.12 (78) d Adelaide 10.8 (68) at the MCG

Collingwood was flying with seven wins in its past eight matches when Adelaide arrived at the MCG hoping to make a statement and shatter a seven-year horror streak. The two sides could not be separated by more than 10 points until the Magpies broke the game open with four straight goals either side of the last change while Billy Frampton clamped down on Riley Thilthorpe throughout. The Crows made one last surge after Darcy Fogarty booted his fourth goal and captain Jordan Dawson added another before the Magpies’ defence held firm in the dying stages. 

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Adelaide

The Crows’ formidable forward group helped the minor premier become the second-highest scoring team among the finalists. Riley Thilthorpe is the centrepiece of the attack with his 22 contested marks inside 50 the equal second-most in the competition as he gives the Crows a clear focal point to target. But the Crows found it harder to pinpoint Thilthorpe or their other forwards across the last four rounds, as they ranked 17th for marks inside 50, in a strength they will want to rediscover against the Pies.

Collingwood

If defence truly does win premierships, then the Magpies are well-placed to go all the way as they enter the finals with the fewest points conceded among all sides. The Pies are comfortable grinding out their victories as they are involved in the lowest-scoring matches (157.3 points per game), and perhaps most crucially concede the fewest points (34.9) in the League from opposition intercepts. Much of the Magpies’ success is built of their defensive effort and intensity as they win the vast majority (78.3 per cent) of matches when on top for pressure factor.

Alex Neal-Bullen is tackled by Brayden Maynard during the match between Adelaide and Collingwood at Adelaide Oval in round 23, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR …

Adelaide
Jordan Dawson was rewarded for another fine season with a second All-Australian blazer but will be carrying a heavier load as he leads the Crows into their first finals campaign in eight years. The former Sydney defender has become a line-breaking midfielder since joining Adelaide four years ago, but has done most of his damage further forward this year with a career-high 6.4 inside 50s at the same time as a career-low average of one rebound a game. But after the Crows were pinned in their back half for long periods the last time they faced the Magpies, Dawson and his sublime left boot could be critical to helping the defence launch their transitions this week. The Crows captain likes facing the Pies too, as he has averaged 28.8 disposals and 7.8 tackles in the past five matches against them. 

Jordan Dawson is tackled during the match between Adelaide and Collingwood at Adelaide Oval in round 23, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Collingwood
The Magpies need Darcy Moore to return to form after an indifferent end to the home-and-away season as his side now risks being exposed for a lack of defensive depth. The injured Jeremy Howe will be a huge loss as the Pies come up against the Crows’ multi-pronged attack, with Moore the obvious replacement to play a similar role at least when he is backing himself and flying for intercept marks. But the Magpies captain at times looked low on confidence during the run home as he too often made mistakes when under pressure in the back half. Billy Frampton did a job on Riley Thilthorpe when keeping the key forward goalless earlier in the year and Brayden Maynard is well-suited to minding Darcy Fogarty, but even if Moore lines up on Taylor Walker the Magpies will want their skipper to also help turn defence into attack.

Darcy Moore marks the ball during the match between Collingwood and Melbourne at the MCG in round 24, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

PREDICTION

Adelaide is stepping into the unknown with more than half its side to play in a first finals campaign while Collingwood has often fielded the oldest – and one of the most experienced – sides in history this year. The Crows will miss the suspended Izak Rankine but should still have enough firepower, while the Magpies have their own concerns in the forward half after struggling to put big scores on the board during the run home. Little has separated the two sides in their past six clashes but with a hostile crowd sure to turn Adelaide Oval into a cauldron the home support and greater variety in attack should be enough to fire the Crows over the line. Adelaide by 11 points.