Let’s talk about silver. Since April this year, I’ve been steadily accumulating silver ETFs — and I plan to hold this position at least until the end of 2025.
At first, my idea was simple: I wanted more exposure to basic materials, commodities, and even a foreign currency hedge against the risk of dollar devaluation from inflation.
But when I looked at gold, I saw a market that had already been rallying for three straight years. Buying at those levels felt like chasing the top — and I didn’t want to be trapped in a high entry price.
So I searched for an alternative. That’s when silver caught my attention, and here’s why.
Strong MomentumPress enter or click to view image in full sizeSource: Trading Economics
When COVID hit, governments around the world unleashed unprecedented money printing — and the U.S. led the way. Since then, commodities, widely considered inflation-hedge assets, began drawing investor attention and showing strong price momentum.
Earlier this year, silver broke above $30/oz, and as of now, it has surged past $40/oz — marking nearly 40% year-to-date growth. It’s the first time in 14 years since September 2011. That makes it one of the top-performing assets of 2025, far outpacing most other major asset classes.
2. Structural Supply Deficit & Industrial Demand
Silver is unlike gold. It is rarely mined on its own — about 70% of supply comes as a by-product of copper, zinc, and lead mining. This means that even if demand rises sharply, production cannot easily scale up. Supply growth is slow and structurally constrained.
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeImage generated by perflexity.ai
From 2015 to 2020, the silver market ran a cumulative surplus of +35.5 million ounces. But from 2021 through 2025, deficits have piled up to a cumulative -710.4 million ounces.
According to the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2025:
2024 deficit: 148.9 million ounces2025 deficit forecast: 117.6 million ounces
That marks the fifth consecutive year of shortfall. Mining output simply cannot keep up with surging demand.
So what’s driving this demand?
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeSolar PV: Silver is irreplaceable in PV cells, and renewable energy policies virtually guarantee continued demand growth.EVs: Traditional cars use 15–28g of silver, but EVs use 25–50g (~0.8–1.6 oz) each. Charging infrastructure adds more.5G & Electronics: Global rollout of 13 million 5G base stations by 2025, plus AI and data-center growth, is driving massive demand for silver-based components.
3. Supply Constraints
Global silver production is highly concentrated: the top three producers — Mexico, China, and Peru — account for 55% of global mine supply.
This concentration means that a strike, political crisis, or regulatory shift in just one or two countries can disproportionately impact global output. Unlike gold, silver mining lacks geographic diversification, leaving it vulnerable to geopolitical stress and trade tensions.
Recycling has grown, but it cannot keep pace with demand:
2015: 165 Moz (~17% of supply)2025: 212 Moz (~20% of supply)CAGR: +2.5%
Despite steady growth, recycling lags far behind the speed of industrial demand.
Short-term outlook shows persistent annual deficits of 100–150 Moz are expected, with only marginal gains from existing mine optimization.
4. Gold-to-Silver Ratio
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeSource: visualcapitalist.com
Price is relative. The gold-to-silver ratio measures whether silver is undervalued or overvalued relative to gold.
Historically, the ratio was much lower in the 19th century. In the 20th century, it fluctuated widely, averaging around 47, peaking at 98 in 1939, and then surging to 125 during the COVID — the highest on record.
Today, the ratio sits in the 90–100 range, suggesting silver remains undervalued relative to gold. Of course, these are two very different metals with distinct uses, so there’s no guarantee of strict correlation or mean reversion. Still, when viewed as safe-haven stores of value, silver offers a compelling relative hedge against fiat currency and inflation.
5. Policy Tailwinds
Recently, U.S. government policy has emerged as a new bullish catalyst for silver. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed adding silver to its draft 2025 Critical Minerals List — resources deemed essential to the U.S. economy and national security.
Citigroup analysts note that the U.S. relies on imports for about 64% of its silver supply, leaving it exposed to tariff risks. Based on these risks and underlying supply-demand fundamentals, Citi projects silver could reach $43/oz within the next 6–12 months.
Final ThoughtsStructural supply deficitsAccelerating industrial demandConcentrated and fragile supply chainsRelative undervaluation compared to goldSupportive policy tailwinds
This unique mix of fundamentals makes silver a powerful hedge. Volatility is part of the ride, but the long-term structural case is still exist.
That’s why I’ve chosen to add silver ETFs to my portfolio and plan to hold them at least through the end of 2025.
ETFs I was looking at were SIVR and SLV. Though SLV is almost ten times larger in AUM — around $19B versus $2.4B for SIVR — and therefore more liquid, I chose SIVR for its lower expense ratio (0.30% vs. 0.50% for SLV).
# Ticker SIVR buy @ 32.09
It consists 4% of my total asset, and current PnL is at +21.5%.
– ThinkingApe