At this weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys, all eyes will be on the three casting races for drama, comedy, and limited series. History tells us whatever shows win there have about an 80 percent chance of claiming victory in the corresponding program races at the Primetime Emmys.
But there are more key categories to watch for.
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The four guest star winners could end up tipping which shows the members of the acting branch (the biggest group within the Television Academy) prefers — particularly if there’s a shocker. Also pay attention to any categories where multiple nominees from the same show are represented, and whether vote-splitting can be overcome. Finally, the Best Reality Host contest is a strong bellwether in recent years for what will go on to win Best Competition Program.
Let’s break down what these pivotal Creative Arts races might signal for this year’s Primetime Emmys.
Best Drama CastingDrama Casting
Contender
Odds
1.
The Pitt
The Pitt
79.1%
2.
The White Lotus
The White Lotus
13.9%
3.
Severance
Severance
5.3%
4.
The Last of Us
The Last of Us
0.8%
5.
Slow Horses
Slow Horses
0.8%
The Pitt leading the Gold Derby odds for Best Drama Casting should raise a few eyebrows, considering that Severance is the front-runner to win Best Drama Series and also tripled The Pitt’s tally in acting nominations. Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa, and Shawn Hatosy were the only performer nominees for Season 1 of the medical series. But there’s precedent: Homeland received just two acting nominations in 2012, and it still was able to win Emmys for casting and series.
Over the past 10 years, Best Drama Casting has matched with Best Drama Series seven times. The three blips were in 2017 (Stranger Things won casting; The Handmaid’s Tale won series), 2018 (The Crown won casting; Game of Thrones won series), and 2023 (The White Lotus won casting; Succession won series).
Best Comedy CastingComedy Casting
Contender
Odds
1.
The Studio
The Studio
95.5%
2.
Only Murders in the Building
Only Murders in the Building
2.1%
3.
Hacks
Hacks
1.7%
4.
The Bear
The Bear
0.4%
5.
Shrinking
Shrinking
0.4%
The Studio has a strong lead for Best Comedy Casting, and for good reason — it received 10 acting nominations, more than any other TV program this year. The nominees are Seth Rogen, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, Catherine O’Hara, Bryan Cranston, Dave Franco, Ron Howard, Anthony Mackie, Martin Scorsese, and Zoë Kravitz. The Apple TV+ show is the only first-year comedy nominated for casting, which, if recent history is an indication, gives it an additional upper hand. The Bear (2023), Abbott Elementary (2022), Ted Lasso (2021), and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2018) all won casting for their rookie seasons.
Best Comedy Casting has mirrored Best Comedy Series in eight of the past 10 years. The two exceptions were in 2022 (Abbott Elementary won casting; Ted Lasso won series) and 2024 (The Bear won casting; Hacks won series).
Best Movie/Limited CastingMovie/Limited Casting
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
Adolescence
96.3%
2.
The Penguin
The Penguin
2.1%
3.
Emmys: What to watch at Creative Arts to predict Primetime winners
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
0.8%
4.
Black Mirror
Black Mirror
0.8%
5.
Dying for Sex
Dying for Sex
—
Can anything beat Adolescence for casting? Mere months ago, the five nominated actors — Stephen Graham, Owen Cooper, Ashley Walters, Erin Doherty, and Christine Tremarco — were virtual unknowns, but now they’re international superstars due to the success of the Netflix limited series that focuses on a young boy accused of stabbing his female classmate. Their overnight fame is reminiscent of the Baby Reindeer cast last year, and that project walked away with six Emmys including casting and series.
Throughout the past decade, Best Movie/Limited Casting has lined up with Best Limited Series a whopping nine times. The only disagreement was in 2019, with When They See Us claiming the casting prize and Chernobyl winning the series contest.
Bryan Cranston, Julianne Nicholson, Shawn Hatosy, Kaitlyn DeverApple TV+, HBO Max
The Guest Stars
The guest races are perhaps the most-followed categories at the Creative Arts, because they’re given to celebrities instead of unknown artisans. The four projected winners this year are Kaitlyn Dever (The Last of Us) for Best Drama Guest Actress, Shawn Hatosy (The Pitt) for Best Drama Guest Actor, Julianne Nicholson (Hacks) for Best Comedy Guest Actress, and Bryan Cranston (The Studio) for Best Comedy Guest Actor. But if upsets happen this weekend for guests, beware of what that could mean for the series contests.
In 2020, Cherry Jones prevailed for the second season of Succession over odds leader Cicely Tyson (How to Get Away with Murder), hinting at good things to come for the HBO family drama, which had been snubbed the prior year. And in 2021, Claire Foy shocked pundits when she won for a brief cameo as Queen Elizabeth in a flashback, proving that The Crown was indeed in prime position to claim some major hardware. Going back a bit, in 1999, The Sopranos losing Best Drama Series on its breakout first season to The Practice was initially hinted at when Edward Herrmann shockingly won for the latter, despite going up against John Heard from the former.
But take all of those examples with a grain of salt. Recent come-from-behind guest triumphs for Michaela Coel (Mr. & Mrs. Smith) in 2024, Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso) in 2023, and Laurie Metcalf (Hacks) in 2022 did not translate to victories for their programs, and instead simply demonstrated the Acting Branch’s appreciation for their specific performances.
Hiroto Kanai and Hiroyuki Sanada, ‘Shōgun’Katie Yu/FX
Overcoming Vote-Splits
Last year, everybody knew Shōgun was winning Best Drama Series, but when it beat itself for Best One-Hour Cinematography at the Creative Arts, it served a death blow to all of its series competitors. Shows that have multiple nominees in a technical categories often cannibalize themselves. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to some examples this weekend that could serve as proverbial canaries in the coal mine.
Severance has a trio of bids for Best Drama Picture Editing, for the episodes “Attila,” “Chikhai Bardo,” and “Cold Harbor.” Will the sci-fi show claim victory over itself and gain a feather in its cap heading into next week, or will one of its co-nominees — Andor, The Last of Us, and The White Lotus — take advantage of the vote-split? (Note that Severance’s biggest series rival, The Pitt, was not nominated for editing.)
Likewise, The Penguin has three bids for Best Limited Picture Editing (“Bliss,” “Cent’Anni,” and “A Great or Little Thing”), up against single entries from Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story and Sirens. Of course, Adolescence is still considered an overwhelming lock to win Best Limited Series, even though it was snubbed for its editing.
Black Mirror is nominated twice for Best Limited Music Composition, for “Hotel Reverie” and “USS Callister: Into Infinity,” so if it wins for either, it’s a much stronger contender than we initially thought. (Awards pundits clearly underestimated it in the nominations phase.) The other music nominees are Dying for Sex, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story, The Penguin, and The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat.
Alan Cumming at the 2024 EmmyChristopher Polk/Variety via Getty Images
Best Reality Host
Someone other than RuPaul Charles (RuPaul’s Drag Race) won the host category last year for the first time in nine years. Alan Cumming’s victory was a tell-tale sign that The Traitors was about to win Best Competition Series. After all, the host and series trophies have matched up six of the last seven times, except for when Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls bested Drag Race for series.
Cristin Milioti and Colin Farrell, ‘The Penguin’HBO
Nominations Leaders
This year, Severance, The Studio, and The Penguin were the nominations leaders for drama, comedy, and limited series. But since they each have multiple nominees in certain categories, how many total Emmys can they actually win? We’ve crunched the numbers below. Remember, the record-holders in these three genres are Shōgun (18 wins in 2024), The Bear (11 wins in 2024), and John Adams (13 wins in 2008).
Severance can win 20 Emmys (from 27 noms). It is triple-nominated in Best Drama Guest Actress and Best Drama Picture Editing, so the most it can claim at the Creative Arts is 13. For Primetime, it has three nominations in Best Drama Supporting Actor and two in Best Drama Directing, so it’s the maximum awards it can win there is seven.
The Studio can win 18 Emmys (from 23 noms). It is representing five times in Best Comedy Guest Actor, so the most it can claim at the Creative Arts is 12. For Primetime, it has two bids in Best Comedy Supporting Actress, so it’s eligible in six categories.
The Penguin can win 21 Emmys (from 24 noms). It has three bids for Best Limited Picture Editing, so the most it can claim at the Creative Arts is 15. For Primetime, it’s double-nominated in Best Limited Directing, so it’s eligible in six categories.
The Creative Arts will take place Sept. 6 and Sept. 7 (see our final predictions), and the Primetime Emmys will air Sept. 14 on CBS.
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