The coalition could not return to power if an election were held today.
Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
A new political shows a bump in support for National, though not enough for the coalition to form a government.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia results – taken between 31 August and 2 September – shows support for National is up 1.3 points to 33.1 percent.
New Zealand First is up 0.3 points to 8.1 per cent, while the ACT party is down 1.9 points to 6.7 per cent.
On these numbers, National would gain two MPs (42 seats), ACT would lose three MPs (8 seats) with no change for New Zealand First (10 seats).
Sitting at a combined 60 seats, the centre-right bloc could not return to power if an election were held today.
Labour remains the largest party in the poll – up 0.2 points to 33.8 percent, with the Greens up 0.9 points to 10.7 percent and Te Pāti Māori up 1.1 point to 4.3 percent.
The results would see Labour lose one MP (42 seats), the Greens gain one MP (13 seats) with no change for Te Pāti Māori (6 seats).
With 61 seats, and on the proviso Te Pāti Māori retains six Māori electorates, the centre-left bloc could form a government.
The coalition has been under pressure to deliver good economic news in recent months as the cost of living squeeze persists.
Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said this latest poll was a wake up call for National and its coalition partners.
“This government is still hanging on by its fingertips. They were elected to provide cost-of-living relief, and so far they’ve been unable to deliver.
“If National want to go into the next election with some breathing room, families need to stop feeling the squeeze. That means growth, jobs, and rates relief.”
Party vote
Labour 33.8 percent, up 0.2 points (42 seats, down one)
National 33.1 percent, up 1.3 points (42 seats, up two)
Greens 10.7 percent, up 0.9 points (13 seats, up one)
New Zealand First 8.1 percent, up 0.3 points (10, no change)
ACT 6.7 percent, down 1.9 points (8 seats, down three)
Te Pāti Māori 4.3 percent, up 1.1 points (6 seats, no change)
Labour’s Chris Hipkins is down 2.5 points in the preferred Prime Minister ratings.
Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii
For the minor parties, TOP is down 1.5 points to 1.1 percent, Outdoors and Freedom is down 0.3 points to 0.8 percent, Vision NZ is up 0.2 points to 0.6 percent and New Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 0.3 percent.
Cost of Living remains voters’ top issue at 27.5 per cent (+3.1 points), followed by the economy more generally at 16.1 percent (-4.6 points).
Health is the third largest issue at 11.1 percent (+1.1 per cent), followed by employment on 7.5 percent and taxes on 4.7 percent.
In preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon is up 1.5 points from last month to 21.7 per cent, while Chris Hipkins is down 2.5 points to 17.7 percent.
Winston Peters is up 2.7 points to 10.9 percent, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 0.8 points to 8.8 percent, and David Seymour is down 2.5 points to 3.7 percent.
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon: 21.7 percent, up 1.5 points
Chris Hipkins: 17.7 percent, down 2.5 points
Winston Peters: 10.9 percent, up 2.7 points
Chlöe Swarbrick: 8.8 percent, up 0.8 points
David Seymour: 3.7 percent, down 2.5 points
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population.
It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent and 8.2 percent were undecided on the party vote question.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
‘I don’t comment on polls’
Speaking at the weekly post-Cabinet briefing, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he was focused on doing his job, which is about turning the economy around.
“There’s so many polls, I don’t comment on polls. I was elected to do a job back in 2023, there’ll be another election next year. As I said, I’m focused on what New Zealanders need to be focused on, and the message is pretty clear, it’s about the economy.”
He then repeated his views that economic mismanagement from Labour had led to a recession that was also a “massive hangover from Covid” and there was a “two-speed recovery” going on with rural areas doing well while the main centres suffer.
Luxon as preferred prime minister enjoyed a small increase in the poll, but he would not reflect on that either.
“I just don’t- (sigh), I’m focused, ah, I was elected to do a job. And I know what my job is which is to clean up the mess, turn it around, and get it heading in the right direction and that’s what I’m focused on.
“And that’s, I know that’s, yeah.
“There’s so many different things coming- that’s what I’m focused on from beginning to end.
“If you seriously think I’m thinking about that stuff when we’ve got when we’ve got some serious issues to deal with in New Zealand and to get this economy moving so that people actually feel there’s a more positive future for them – that’s what I’m fixated on.”
He said he felt no need to speak to his caucus about his leadership.
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