Vikings had 7.7-percent win probability late in the third quarter

Through three quarters, it was a rough homecoming for local product J.J. McCarthy. So rough that the Vikings seemed to be destined to lose.

And that’s when destiny took over.

Via NFL NextGenStats, the Vikings had a 7.7-percent chance of winning in Chicago with 1:34 left in the third quarter, while trailing 17-6.

Then came the fourth quarter.

It started on the very first play of the final 15 minutes, when Bears kicker Cairo Santos missed a 50-yard field goal. It continued with a six-play, 60-yard touchdown drive. Then, after a three-and-out, a three-play, 50-yard drive gave Minnesota its first lead of the night.

Throw in another touchdown on a nifty 14-yard run from McCarthy and a late attempt by the Bears to try to force overtime (aided by a brilliant decision to return a kickoff that was caught deep in the end zone, burning through the two-minute warning), and the Vikings emerged with an unlikely win, 27-24.

Beyond McCarthy, who became the first Vikings quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes in his debut since Fran Tarkenton in 1961, Minnesota may have found something in running back Jordan Mason. Fifty-two weeks to the night after he was an unlikely star for the 49ers in place of Christian McCaffrey, Mason finally got the running game going in the second half — opening up the rest of the offense.

Overall, the numbers weren’t pretty for Minnesota’s usually high-powered offense. In the end, only one stat ever matters.

Points scored vs. pointed allowed. Somehow, the Vikings found a way out of a slow sink into quicksand to steal a game that, through nearly 45 minutes, they seemed to have no business winning.