After 27 gruelling rounds the eight finalists for the 2025 season have now been decided, and congratulations to all who’ve made it.
There are the usual suspects in Melbourne, Penrith, the Sharks and the Roosters and some welcome new teams in Canberra and the Warriors but only one team can win the competition from here.
So which teams are genuine contenders and in with a real chance of taking out the title, and which teams are just pretenders making up the numbers?
Canberra Raiders (Minor Premiers): The Raiders have proved their many doubters, myself included, wrong this year to seize their first minor premiership since Mal Meninga led the club to their second grand final victory in 1990 when they defeated Penrith 18 points to 14, with Meninga’s goal kicking proving the difference.
Canberra’s only previous visit to the grand final during the NRL era came in 2019 when they defeated both Melbourne and Souths in the finals to set up a grand final showdown with the Roosters, ultimately losing 14-8 in somewhat controversial circumstances, with referee Ben Cummins’ infamous and erroneous “six again” call going against the Raiders. History shows that the side finishing first has won 4 of the 10 premierships contested over the last decade, and 10 of the 27 contested in the NRL era overall, and with victories this year over every other finalist except for Canterbury, the Raiders must be favoured to win their first premiership in over 30 years.
Verdict: Contenders
Melbourne Storm (Second): No team enjoys playing finals footy as much as the Melbourne Storm, with the club missing the play-offs only three times since they entered the competition, and no team has won as many deciders either, with the southerners winning six grand-finals in 11 appearances since 1998, salary cap breaches notwithstanding.
Curiously, history shows that the Storm are less likely to win the grand final when they finish first than when they finish second, third or fourth, so perhaps their second place finish this year is an omen and will suit them right down to the ground? It’s been five years since the Storm last lifted the trophy, a year in which they also finished second on the table, and with last year’s loss to the Panthers still fresh in their memory, they’re a big chance of ruining Canberra’s premiership dreams this year.
The latest injury to Jahrome Hughes certainly won’t help their cause, but they did defeat the likes of Brisbane, Penrith, Canterbury and the resurgent Eels while Hughes was out injured recently, and the loss of big Nelson to suspension is a real bonus. If I’ve learned one thing, it’s to ever underestimate either Craig Bellamy or the Storm.
Craig Bellamy. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Verdict: Contenders
Canterbury Bulldogs (Third): Cameron Ciraldo’s Bulldogs’ third-placed finish this year proved not only what an aggressive recruitment program can achieve in a short space of time, but also that their sixth-placed finish last year was no fluke.
Despite some late-season losses they’ve done well to hang on to third place, although their doubters will be quick to point out that losses to Brisbane, Penrith, the Sydney Roosters, Melbourne and the Dolphins during the season don’t augur well for premiership success.
The NRL era has been a real mixed bag for the Bulldogs, with wooden spoons in 2002, 2008 and 2021, finishing runners up in 1998, 2012 and 2014, and a sole premiership way back in 2004 when the likes of Braith Anasta, Roy Asotasi, Hazem El Masri, Willie Mason, Steve Price and Andrew Ryan were the club’s top dogs. Winning from third place is far from impossible, with six teams taking the title from there during the NRL era, but the Dogs’ recent run of injuries to their outside backs, an inexperienced spine and a forward pack that lacks the required punch to win a premiership, will keep them from the trophy this year. They’ll certainly be better for the run though and will no doubt be a stronger premiership threat in 2026.
Verdict: Pretenders
Brisbane Broncos (Fourth): The Broncos had a hot start to the NRL era, winning three of the first nine premierships decided, but the closest they’ve got to the trophy since their star-studded side won their last premiership in 2006 was finishing runners-up in both 2015 and 2023 after coming in second on the ladder both times. After a brief slump earlier in the season new coach Michael Maguire now has his team firing, winning 10 of their last 12 games, including victories over fellow finalists in Cronulla, the Warriors, Canterbury and Melbourne.
Winning from fourth isn’t easy and has only been done three times in the NRL era, with the Storm the last side to chalk up a grand final win from fourth in 2009, but with key players in Payne Haas, Reece Walsh and Patrick Carrigan currently hitting peak form, and with Adam Reynolds, Selwyn Cobbo and Ezra Mam all looking likely to return from injury before the season’s done, only a fool would discount the Broncos.
Ezra Mam looks to pass. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Verdict: Contenders
Cronulla Sharks (Fifth): History shows no side finishing fifth has ever won the competition in the NRL era, with the Cowboys the only team to ever make it as far as the grand final from there when they finished runners-up to the Tigers some 20 years ago, but Craig Fitzgibbon’s 2025 Sharks may just be the team to turn that statistic on its head.
Cronulla won their sole title from third place in 2016, in what has been their only grand final appearance in the NRL era, and despite being regular finalists in recent years they’ve rarely threatened, with their preliminary final exit last year being their best effort. 2025 has seen them have a very strong finish to the season, winning seven of their last eight games, and with nearly all their key players fit and available, and new forward leader Addin Fonua-Blake showing the Sharks’ big pack how to get it done, this could very well be the year they bag their second title.
Verdict: Contenders
NZ Warriors (Sixth): It’s been some 30 years since the Warriors joined the competition and unfortunately their grand final appearances have been few and far between, going down convincingly to the Roosters in 2002 and defeated by Manly nine years later.
To the delight of their many patient supporters, the Warriors began the 2025 season with a bang, winning ten of their first 12 games, including victories over the Roosters, Brisbane and Cronulla, before a wretched run of injuries, particularly to James Fisher-Harris, Mitchell Barnett and Luke Metcalf, saw them begin to struggle, and they’ve defeated only cellar dwellers in the Dragons and Titans since round 21.
No team has ever won the title from sixth place in the NRL era, and the Warriors certainly don’t look to be the team to change that this year.
Verdict: Pretenders
Nathan Cleary kicks under pressure from Tallyn Da Silva. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Penrith Panthers (Seventh): What an odd season it’s been for the premiers. An early-season slump which saw them slip to last place on the ladder, followed by a nine-game winning streak as they clawed their way back into the top eight, followed by losses to fellow finalists Melbourne and Canberra and their reserve grade team going down to Canterbury.
Surely no team finishing seventh with that topsy turvy season behind them could be serious contenders to win the premiership? You should never write off a champion team, and with five grand finals and four premierships in the last five years no team plays finals football as well as the Panthers, and with not a single injury worry, they could easily become the first team in the NRL era to win the competition from seventh place.
Verdict: Contenders
Sydney Roosters (Eighth): Since their back to back premierships in 2018 and 2019, the Sydney Roosters have made the finals every year without ever being good enough to make it all the way to the grand final, and for a team absolutely bristling with both international and Origin players, just creeping into eighth place this year can only be described as another disappointing result.
That said, they’ve finished the 2025 season well, winning five of their last six games, including decisive victories over both Canterbury and Melbourne, but will they not only be the first team to win the competition from eight place but also the first team to defeat the 50 points conceded hoodoo? I don’t think so.
Verdict: Pretenders