Heimir Hallgrímsson knows the score, especially when there’s losing ones.
One upside of recruiting a manager with international experience is their awareness of the engagement rules.
His contract was based on two campaigns but last year’s Uefa Nations League series acted as warm-up for the real business of World Cup qualifications.
One point from the first two games of three windows over a 70-day period shunts him onto the ropes.
If Ireland managed to remain competitive to the point they head to Hungary in the final game on November 16, the FAI would probably offer an extension regardless of the outcome.
He was hired to arrest the decline of Ireland to early fallers in the hunt for major tournaments.
His responses to questions about his future after Tuesday’s 2-1 defeat in Armenia testified to his realisation of the consequences.
The current FAI regime have allowed the deals of their last three managers, Vera Pauw and Eileen Gleeson on the women’s and Stephen Kenny for the men’s, run down to their expiration date, thereby avoiding any payoffs.
Hallgrímsson is 12 matches into his reign but the Icelander appears to be facing into his last four.
Everybody fatigued by the search for Kenny’s replacement, straddling 2023 and 2024, may have to strap in for another palaver.
Here we look at five potential successors for the throne and their prospects of securing a meeting of minds with the FAI:
Undoubtedly the most qualified candidate the last time around, the former Ireland midfielder eventually shied away to remain with the English FA. Two figureheads in that recruitment phase, chief executive Jonathan Hill and chief football officer Marc Canham, have left the FAI to return to England. After back-to-back Euro U21 titles with England, he’s got ambitions of senior duty but might not be with his ancestral home.
Prospects: Unlikely.
His accomplishments at Shelbourne, taking over a promoted team and winning the Premier Division within four years, endures to merit respect, whatever people make of his personality. Duff thrived in extracting the best from his players, creating a siege mentality to disrupt the established order last year. His disdain for the FAI is legendary but he’s at a loose end seeking a fresh challenge.
Prospects: Low.
Shamrock Rovers are ambling towards their fifth title in six years under Bradley’s reign and there’s a second Conference League phase in a row to confront from October to December. Sceptics will cite Stephen Kenny’s doomed era as reason not to elevate a contender based on domestic success but Bradley has a different personality. He’s amassed deep experience at 40 and the fact that a former ally, ex-Rovers CEO John Martin, is on the verge of succeeding Canham is in favour.
Prospects: High.
No Irish manager has achieved club strides on the European stage that Keane has. From taking Olympiacos to extra-time along their path to Conference League glory as Maccabi Tel Aviv manager and reaching a Champions League playoff with Ferencváros, he’s on the rise. Keane’s recent history with the FAI is thorny but time’s a healer and his commitment to Ireland is absolute. That he’s in the middle of his first full season in Hungary means Keane is in no rush for a homecoming.
Prospects: Too soon.
Another Keane who’ll always command airtime in these discussions. It’s now 14 years since the Corkman was a standalone manager but assistant roles did follow, including a five-year stint as Martin O’Neill’s sidekick with Ireland. The Irish Examiner revealed meetings were held between the FAI and Keane during the last search and they won’t discount him despite widespread reservations about his suitability and patience levels for a limited squad.
Prospects: Intriguing but remote.