So, after 27 rounds only eight teams remain.
The Penrith Panthers may have won four-straight premierships but if they are to make it five, for the first time they will have to do it from outside the top four.
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For the first time in a long time it feels like there could be a champion from outside the four, with the Roosters in fine form and even the Sharks starting to click at the right time.
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So, with that in mind foxsports.com.au looks at all eight teams left in the race for the premiership. Why can they win it and why could they fall short?
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Why they can win it: Fast finishers
Of course, the Raiders have plenty of other strengths. They wouldn’t have finished runaway minor premiers if they didn’t.
From a strong, ball-playing forward pack to speed and athleticism out wide, there are several reasons to believe Canberra is a genuine contender in the hunt for the premiership.
But if there is a specific advantage the Raiders have over the rest of the competition it is that they are fast finishers.
If we discount last week’s game against the Dolphins where they virtually rested their entire starting line-up, the Raiders have outscored their opposition by 154 points in second halves this season compared to 26 in the first.
So much for that ‘Faders’ tag that has haunted Ricky Stuart’s side for so many years.
In some ways it reminds you of the Penrith teams that have dominated the competition recently.
The Panthers had the attacking firepower to quickly put any team away but instead they would slowly wear them down with Nathan Cleary’s kicking game and strong metres from their outside backs, which then freshened up their forward pack to finish over the top.
After laying that platform to dominate field position, the Panthers would suffocate the frustrated opposition into making a mistake and the points quickly flowed from there.
The 2025 Raiders are similar and it makes a strong start against them all the more important, although even this year’s Panthers learned that may not be enough.
‘Would take an elephant gun to stop him’ | 00:41
Why they can’t: Pressure and inexperience
On paper, there aren’t many holes you can poke in this Raiders team. The right-edge defence may be a concern given before last week’s loss to the Dolphins they had conceded seven more tries down that side than the left.
But if there is anything that is going to bring Canberra undone it is probably a combination of the pressure of having to back up its minor premiership and the relative inexperience of the playing group in some key positions.
Even someone like Jamal Fogarty at 31 years old doesn’t have much big-game experience compared to the halfbacks for other premiership contenders like Melbourne, Penrith and Brisbane while Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange are obviously still early in their careers.
Jed Stuart and Savelio Tamale, meanwhile, are playing their first full season in the NRL.
There are some older heads in the forward pack, headlined by Josh Papali’i and Joseph Tapine, while Stuart has been quick to get ahead of any suggestions the Raiders need to win this year’s premiership to help ease the pressure on his playing group.
But if the Raiders were to suffer a surprise loss to Brisbane in the first week of the finals, would it be that shocking for them to crash out in straight sets?
Can Canberra Raiders fullback Kaeo Weekes continue his fine form? Picture: NRL ImagesSource: Supplied
MELBOURNE STORM
Why they can win it: Aerial specialists
There was a reason Xavier Coates was appealing for referees to show greater consistency in penalising illegal blocking tactics.
Rival teams know it is the best way for them to take out the Melbourne flyer and on the other wing the Storm have another aerial threat in Will Warbrick.
Against a team like Penrith in particular with Brian To’o and now Paul Alamoti instead of Tom Jenkins, it is a massive advantage for Melbourne.
It doesn’t stop there either. Eliesa Katoa is also a weapon in the air and just adds another target for Cameron Munster or Tyran Wishart to kick to.
Why they can’t: No Jahrome Hughes
Wishart is a dependable replacement but there is no doubting the loss of Jahrome Hughes will only put even more pressure on Munster and Harry Grant as the primary playmakers.
Hughes had 21 try assists, 19 linebreak assists, eight linebreaks and six tries in 18 games this season while he also averaged 341 kicking metres per game.
Without him, again, more will fall onto the shoulders of Munster and Grant and while they are both capable of handling it, it will also mean more time and energy that could have been used producing the off-the-cuff plays that make them both so hard to defend.
Melbourne’s season in ‘Trouble’ | 01:43
CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS
Why they can win it: Defence
It is hard to get too excited about the Bulldogs, even if they finished inside the top four, given how the second half of the season has unfolded.
But any chance Cameron Ciraldo’s side has of somehow turning its fortunes hinges on playing strong defence.
The 24-6 loss to Cronulla to close out the regular season wasn’t promising, but all up the Bulldogs held their opposition to single digits eight times this year — their most in a season since 1993.
There are still major question marks over the attack and whether the Bulldogs made too many unnecessary changes at the expense of continuity and cohesion, but if Ciraldo is able to get his playing group to focus on defence first instead, they’ll have a chance.
The execution wasn’t great in the 8-6 loss to Penrith earlier in the year and yet the Bulldogs were one clean pass to Marcelo Montoya away from winning that game.
The Bulldogs need to rediscover their defensive edge. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Why they can’t: An unsettled spine
As already mentioned, wherever you stand in the Lachlan Galvin debate, it is hard not to think that the Bulldogs just look too unsettled and unsure of themselves in attack to win the premiership this year.
The upside of Galvin was alluring and moving on from Toby Sexton may end up working out in the long-term, but the Bulldogs were playing far more direct with their now axed halfback at the helm.
There is no point going back to him now because it has been too long and would just only further cloud the messaging from coach Ciraldo.
Instead, it looks like Bulldogs fans will be left wondering what could have been if they didn’t mess with a winning formula.
Perhaps Ciraldo is right that the Bulldogs wouldn’t have got much further anyway in the finals even if Sexton was at halfback but now we will never know.
It isn’t just Galvin anyway, moving Bailey Hayward to hooker may have felt like the right call at the time for Ciraldo and isn’t a terrible one in a vacuum.
But it has seen Reed Mahoney relegated to a limited role off the bench which alongside Kurt Mann has left the Bulldogs light on up front and further hurt the rhythm of their attack.
Could Galvin make a finals move to 6? | 00:51
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Why they can win it: Attacking firepower
It didn’t end up winning them the grand final in the end, but you only have to look at the way Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh turned the 2023 decider in Brisbane’s favour.
Of course, Mam won’t play in Sunday’s game against the Raiders and is no certainty to return in the finals series, but even without him this Broncos team is still stacked with weapons.
Walsh can be hot and cold but he was certainly on fire last week against the Storm, scoring two tries to go with five tackle busts and headlines a back five that is consistently producing explosive plays.
Then there is Payne Haas. When he isn’t churning out the metres or bouncing off tackles he is getting his arm free for an offload, which can be particularly devastating for the defence given how many men they often have to send to wrap Haas up.
If he’s able to get the ball free, it often means an overlap out wide where that speed and tackle-breaking from the likes of Kotoni Staggs and Walsh can cause all kinds of problems.
If you want proof of just how hard the Broncos have been to stop this year, they averaged 28.3 points per game — their most in a single season since 1998.
Walsh is an excitement machine. Picture: NRL ImagesSource: Supplied
Why they can’t: Too volatile
Now, as much as Walsh is capable of moments like the one against Newcastle a fortnight ago where he made a break on the right edge and then out-paced fullback Dane Gagai all the way to the try-line, he is also guilty of overplaying his hand at times.
It isn’t just Walsh either. The Broncos finished the year with the fourth-most errors (255) and fourth-worst completion rate (78 per cent) in the competition only behind the Knights, Cowboys and Roosters.
The discipline is an issue too, with Brisbane conceding 153 penalties. That mark was tied for the most alongside the Bulldogs with the Storm (138) the next closest.
Obviously Michael Maguire has to live with those errors to some extent because there is no use having the best completion rate in the league if you are not troubling the scoreboard, but in the finals where every possession is all the more important he will need to get the Broncos somewhat reining it in.
Walsh HEROICS end in toilet water celly! | 00:41
CRONULLA SHARKS
Why they can win it: Found form at the right time
It is hard to ignore just how well the Sharks have played lately.
The 24-6 clinic against the Bulldogs was the perfect tune-up for the finals while a fortnight ago the Sharks overcame a sluggish start to run down the Knights.
Beyond that, they have now won seven of their last eight games and while winning in September has proven a challenge in the past for the Sharks regardless of their regular season form, there at least has to be something said about having momentum this time of year.
Why they can’t: Mental demons
In saying that, the Sharks are no strangers to finals football and unfortunately, their record in September is not pretty reading.
It speaks to the mental demons they will need to overcome to book their spot in the grand final.
The Sharks have lost eight of their last nine finals game and have not won back-to-back finals since their premiership season of 2016, when they finished third.
Nicho Hynes may have been cleared by the match review committee for Saturday night’s game but there is also the question as to whether he or halves partner Braydon Trindall will step up in the big moments, having struggled to do so in past finals series.
Hynes cleared to play finals footy! | 01:59
WARRIORS
Why they can win it: Leaning into the underdog story
Sorry, Warriors fans. Sure, there are some standout players in Andrew Webster’s side.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has arguably been their best in the back end of the season, topping 200 run metres in eight of his last nine games and hitting five or more tackle busts in five of them.
James Fisher-Harris has the big-game experience and is the kind of leader who can bring the best out of a young, promising forward pack like the Warriors have and from Leka Halasima to even the emergence of Samuel Healey recently, there are plenty of reasons for optimism.
But even if the Warriors have some genuine game-breakers out wide and experienced leaders up front, neither makes them stand out from the rest of the competition.
So, what do they have going in their favour?
Well, it may not end up meaning much but they are clearly leaning into the underdog status this finals and there is a freedom to being able to play without any expectation or pressure.
Webster set the tone for it at this press conference last week, declaring “no one has given us a chance since day one”.
“The people who don’t believe, that’s fine, but we believe in ourselves,” he added.
It is a message that has been embraced by the playing group too given captain Fisher-Harris echoed similar sentiments, telling journalists “no one really respects us” or “gives us any hope”.
“And I actually love that,” he said.
The Warriors enter Saturday’s game against the Panthers as rank outsiders but back at home, there is a chance that they could draw on the energy of the home crowd to pull off the upset.
From there? Well, as Webster said they weren’t really supposed to be here in the first place so anything else is an added bonus and there is a power to adopting that kind of mindset.
The Warriors are embracing the underdog tag. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Why they can’t: Their form speaks for itself
Then again, there is a reason so few people are expecting the Warriors to do anything in the finals.
If Luke Metcalf was fit, sure. But without him they have struggled and recent form suggests the Warriors won’t be much of an issue for a rejuvenated Panthers team, even at home.
The Warriors have won just two of their past seven games and four of their past 11 since their bye in Round 15.
Their most recent win came against the lowly Titans while the week prior they scraped past an undermanned Dragons team 14-10. Then there was the great escape against the Knights.
Their last impressive win came in mid-July against the Tigers but outside of that even when the Warriors have won they have been unconvincing and it is just hard to see them putting it together four good weeks in a row to go all the way.
‘It was chaos’ Webster on Warriors loss | 05:28
PENRITH PANTHERS
Why they can win it: Big-game experience
Six players (Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o, Nathan Cleary, Moses Leota, Liam Martin and Isaah Yeo) have played in every single grand final since Penrith first went down to Melbourne in 2020 while Scott Sorensen has featured in four of the deciders.
While back-to-back golden point losses to Melbourne and Canberra have cast some doubt over Penrith’s premiership credentials, coach Ivan Cleary has always remained unfazed. To him, there isn’t any need to worry or second guess the line-up running out each week.
That is because “a lot of the team have been there and done it”.
“That doesn’t get you over the line because it’s a new season, a new set of circumstances and a new team in that respect, but I think we know how it looks and what we need to do,” Cleary said, adding “I think our game suits finals”.
It may not always translate to results, but that kind of big-game experience should hold the Panthers in good stead as they look to make history by winning outside of the top four.
It also means that as much as Penrith has looked far from the dominant force in past regular seasons, it would be foolish to count this champion side out.
Nathan Cleary knows how to win big games. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Why they can’t: Do they have enough gas left in the tank?
Well, that and the hooker situation because the Panthers won’t be winning the competition again if Mitch Kenny isn’t healthy.
But otherwise, it is the one “question mark” that Cooper Cronk has.
“Do their best players have enough energy to do it again?”
The rest for the Bulldogs game will certainly help and could end up being a masterstroke from coach Ivan Cleary given how mentally and physically draining the Storm and Raiders losses would have been.
On the other hand, it also meant the Panthers threw away a chance to avoid a trip across the ditch.
While home ground advantage wasn’t the same for Penrith this season at CommBank Stadium, it certainly would have helped if it meant not having to travel to New Zealand.
But putting the travel aside, you also just have to wonder how much it has taken out of the Panthers to make this sort of a run after such a horrible start to the season.
It doesn’t have to be a team-wide thing either. Dylan Edwards, for example, has had a bad case of the drops in the past few weeks and it may be a mental game for the Panthers fullback from here as he looks to regain his confidence.
Even looking at the losses to the Storm and Raiders, Penrith led both by 10 before being run down but neither game should have even got to golden point in the first place.
While the Panthers have shaken off their slow starts to games from earlier in the season, they still seem vulnerable if the opposition can build a bit of momentum.
That is particularly troubling given they will have to beat either the Raiders or Broncos to book their spot in the decider; two teams that are among the hardest to stop in the league when playing off the back of momentum.
Panthers confident after finals launch | 00:56
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Why they can win it: They have the best player in the NRL right now
If the Origin teams were being picked right now, James Tedesco wouldn’t just be an automatic selection at fullback — he’d be one of the first names called out.
The Roosters superstar looks an absolute shoo-in for the Dally M Medal after a standout season, leading the league in tackle busts (161) and run metres (3919) while his 52 try involvements only trail Isaiya Katoa and 26 try assists rank fourth.
Trent Robinson was full of praise for Tedesco after last week’s win over the Rabbitohs, declaring him the “best ruck fullback in the game” and as long as the 32-year-old continues to play at the top of his game, it is hard to write the Roosters off, even from eighth position.
Why they can’t: They are their own worst enemy
As good as the Roosters have been lately, you only have to look at the loss to the Eels to see how bad it can get when they don’t take care of the ball.
In their defence, they did lose Sam Walker early in that game. But still, that was no excuse for a 54 per cent completion rate with the Roosters making 20 errors that night.
On the year, the Roosters have the fourth-worst completion rated while their 271 errors rank only behind the Cowboys and Knights.
Their discipline isn’t great either, with the Roosters conceding 132 penalties (tied-fourth most).
If they can clean up their ball handling and get through their sets like they did in the second half against Melbourne (91 per cent completion rate), there is no reason they can’t make a run towards the grand final.