Poland’s prime minister says his country is the closest it’s been to “open conflict” since the second world war after Russian drones entered Polish airspace last night.
Here’s what we know so far.
How many Russian drones entered Polish airspace and how many were shot down?
Poland’s leader Donald Tusk said the country recorded 19 drones in their airspace last night.
Dr Kenton White from Reading University’s Department of Politics and International Relations told FactCheck he “expect[s] that the 19 reported are those that can be definitely identified. There may be others, but figures tend to be conservative until confirmed definitively.”
Mr Tusk told the Polish parliament this morning that up to four drones were shot down last night by Polish forces and those of its NATO allies.
(NATO is the defensive alliance of 32 mostly Western nations, including the UK and US.)
NATO chief Mark Rutte said today that Dutch, Italian, German and NATO forces were among those that took part in the response.
What type of Russian drones entered Polish airspace?
A key question is whether the drones were armed or just used for reconnaissance.
Dr Kenton White explains: “We don’t know what type of drones they are, but considering the reports from Poland connecting them with a broader attack on Ukraine I would expect them to be armed. We will have to wait until the wreckage is found to be in a better position to comment.”
Did Russia intend to enter Polish airspace?
Mr Rutte seemed to suggest that NATO has yet to confirm whether Russia’s incursion was deliberate. He told reporters this morning that “a full assessment of the incident is ongoing” and “whether it was intentional or not, it is absolutely reckless”.
The Russian military says it struck sites across Ukraine, which borders Poland, last night. It says “there had been no plans to target facilities” in Poland. This appears to be a denial, but leaves open the possibility that the incursion happened without having been planned in advance.
Dr White told us: “Given the number of objects that violated Polish airspace I would say it was deliberate.”
What is Article 4 of the NATO treaty and does it move us closer to war?
Prime minister Tusk invoked article 4 of the Washington Treaty (which governs NATO’s operations) this morning. This meant that representatives of other NATO member states were summoned to a special meeting to discuss the security threat to Poland.
Mr Rutte said that “allies expressed solidarity with Poland and denounced Russia’s reckless behaviour” at the meeting. He added that NATO’s Supreme Allied commander “will continue to actively manage our deterrence and defence posture along the entire eastern flank” and that the bloc is “resolved to defend every inch of Allied territory”.
Triggering article 4 is a major moment: it has only happened seven times before since NATO was founded in 1949. Dr White explains that this is “an important first step to activating more resources within NATO.”
But it’s not as significant as article 5, which underpins the idea that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, and could in theory be the means by which Western nations end up in direct conflict with Russia.
Article 5 has only been invoked once in the history of NATO, on the day after the 9/11 attacks on the United States. But, as Dr White explains: “article 5 will only be triggered as a last resort.” And as both Russia and NATO have access to nuclear weapons, they are keen to avoid direct conflict with each other.
What does the Russia-Poland drone incident mean for Ukraine?
Dr White told us that this incident “is likely to strengthen Polish and NATO support for Ukraine as it poses a direct threat to NATO. It is an escalation by Russia and is probably a means to see just how robust the air defences are, and how unified NATO is to such actions.”
Edward Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told FactCheck: “Putin wants to demonstrate strength and likely test NATO resolve. However, he is also demonstrating that he has no interest in the war ending. European leaders will be keen to present this further evidence forcefully to President Trump to try and convince him to pressure Putin to come to the negotiating table in good faith.”
The RUSI expert suggested that this could even present an “opportunity for Europe” to extend its anti-drone protections to western Ukraine. “It is technically feasible,” he told us, “and the decision is one of political will.”