We started the season with 18, it was whittled down to eight, and by the end of this weekend, 2025 will have our final four in the hunt for the premiership.

First, though, we get to enjoy as tantalising a pair of semi finals as we’ve seen in years – two genuine line-ball encounters that laugh in the face of semis of old, where qualifying final losers used to beat up on the elimination final victors just happy to have made it a step further in September.

But for two of Adelaide, Hawthorn, Brisbane and Gold Coast, the journey ends here – and all will be disappointed to fall this close to the finish line.

Our experts are split on this round of matches, with at least one tipster backing each team. Who claims glory in the third-last week of the year?

AFL tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Get your tips in here.

Tim Miller

Adelaide, Brisbane

I went one out of four in tipping for Finals Week 1 – and it was the one I was least sure about, Hawthorn over GWS, that prevented a duck’s egg. Yikes.

I’m no more confident about this weekend – in fact, I’ve genuinely got no idea. Both these matches could swing either way.

On Friday night, a vulnerable Adelaide face a defining test against the darkest of dark horses this September, Hawthorn. It’s just the third time, and first since 2006, that eighth has faced first in a semi final – both those two previous encounters were bloodbaths. This will be anything but.

The problem for the Crows is that the game-turner in their thrilling win over the Hawks last time out was none other than Izak Rankine – not very helpful this week. As for the Hawks, Josh Weddle is back in the team from that encounter, while the backline help up magnificently against 72 Giants inside 50s, and is perfectly primed for the challenge of Adelaide’s three-headed monster.

It’s a genuine coin-flip, this one. I’m backing the Crows, mostly because we tend to underrate qualifying final losers as a rule, and they were minor premiers for a reason. But I’d settle for a good game.

Saturday night is just as intriguing – a Pineapple Grapple like no other, leaving Fremantle and West Coast as the only non-Victorian state rivals without at least one final between them. It’s history for Queensland, and fingers crossed the Gabba is packed to the rafters.

I’m so close to picking the Suns here – they laughed at my thought that they were September’s weakest team by pipping Freo in an epic elimination final last week, they destroyed Brisbane in their last encounter, and the Lions’ list of casualties is approaching a tipping point.

But like the Crows, the Lions were top four for a reason – they have an outstanding record, with or without Lachie Neale, against their other finalists, and I don’t think a straight-sets exit is their fate.

Recent history suggests I will be wrong with one of these tips – since 2013, just twice have both qualifying final losers recovered to win their semis. But on the other hand, only in 2014 have we seen TWO straight-sets exits under the current finals system – this at least assures me of getting one tip right, because I just know if I went one-apiece, I’d get both tips wrong.

Jack Gunston celebrates a goal in his 250th AFL game.

Jack Gunston celebrates a goal in his 250th game. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Hawthorn, Gold Coast

Never doubt the quality finals footy can provide.

We had great games, great moments, powerful showings and heartbreak all round in Week 1 – now, we’re left with the final two games outside Victoria of the season. Both should give us plenty of interest.

Given in the finals predictions last week, I went with Adelaide and Brisbane losing in straight sets, it’s hard to then tip against it now, despite Fremantle’s failure.

The Crows are playing with house money – this season has been a success overall, but they failed miserably in their first finals appearance in quite a while and will surely be desperate to right last week’s wrongs. Yet while it got a bit shaky for Hawthorn against the Giants, they were clearly the better team overall, and looked like a professional outfit that knew exactly how to win in September.

It’s hard to believe we’d get such poor performances out of a handful of Adelaide stars again, but if there’s one team who can restrict them, it’s the Hawks.

On the flipside, the Lions are hurt and bothered, but the Suns have the shorter break from Perth – and the weight of last week’s emotions will be either promoting a magical run, or could end up destroying the group.

Brisbane felt Eric Hipwood’s absence and looked as toothless as expected for most of the night against Geelong. Hugh McCluggage was shut down and that was it for the midfield, while the defence was predictably leaky.

The Suns, meanwhile, felt in control for a lot of their upset win, but were able to be carved up through quick ball use – the high line failed them a couple of times.

I choose to believe fairytales do exist – nothing against Brisbane, who are perfectly capable of overcoming their own injury odds to win this one, but it just feels right that the Suns might well be pretty in pink on Saturday.

Mac Andrew takes a mark.

Mac Andrew takes a mark. (Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Adelaide, Gold Coast

Goddamn, this is hard. I could feasibly – and legitimately – tip either team in either game, and have good reasons to do so. 

Friday night’s clash looks a beauty, and momentum is with the visitors. The Crows wilted – and wilted badly – against the Pies, whereas the Hawks were sublime in dismantling the Giants – and are now faced with a semi final against a South Australian opponent.

Wonder how the last one turned out.

I joke, but really – they wouldn’t want it to be like six of their past seven games at the Adelaide Oval – the Hawks don’t really love it there.

You can’t expect the Crows’ usually intimidating forward line to flounder, again, and their defence should be up to the task against the Hawks’ dangerous forward outfit. The midfield battle, much as it will all weekend, will be critical, and it’s probably the weakest link in Hawthorn’s armour.

I said in my pre-finals tipping piece that whoever lost the Adelaide-Collingwood qualifying final would be bundled out in straight sets. And yet here I am, committing a cardinal sin, backtracking on that tip: the Hawks remain the young, brash upstarts, but this very wild, very controversial, very fun Adelaide ride will live to die another day. 

Living to die another day, already, are the Suns. They stunned Freo with a ferocity and braveness last week that belied the fact it was their finals debut, and absolutely deserve their place up against the old enemy tomorrow night. 

Brisbane have won the last seven QClashes (or Pineapple Grapple, or whatever the cool kids are calling it) at the Gabba, which gives a meagre bit of hope the way of the minor premiers, but there’s plenty to dispel that hope.

One significant stumbling block is the loss of Lachie Neale, which is a blow to the Lions’ midfield. Not good news – the Suns’ one-two midfield punch of Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson were brilliant against the Dockers, and if they’re going, then the Suns are automatically in a good place (they know this well, having dominated the Lions in late July).

In fact, it’s that late July game that truly thrust the Suns to the forefront of people’s attention. I’m not saying this will be close to the ten-goal thrashing that encounter was – it’ll be much, much closer – but sensible people would be tipping the Lions. Just like sensible people backed Freo.

Screw sensibility, embrace something new. Suns win a thriller. 

What a stupidly good set of games we’ve got. The real winner is footy – and us.

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