What Rassie has done with his selection is certainly courageous. I’ll tell you why, because for what seems like an age, he’s been very vocal in toeing the consistent line that he needs each player to be on at least 30 caps going into the World Cup.
He’s also said, many times, that unlike the Georgia, Italy and Barbarians Tests in the summer, the time for experimentation is over and he’s going to hang his hat on results at The Rugby Championship with his most trusted lieutenants. You can only surmise from his line-up, that a different narrative seems to be playing out.
So, why’s it so brave? Well, you’re leaving out all those hard-earned Test caps – between Eben Etzebeth, Willie Le Roux, Damien de Allende, Handre Pollard and Jesse Kriel, that’s nearly 500 caps who won’t be able to exert their influence in Wellington. Granted, some of them looked slow and leaden footed but it’s still a punt.
Then you’re leaving out your captain [Kriel]. That’s bold. The lock combination, too, is a departure from the norm. Physically, Ruan Nortje and Lood de Jager resemble New Zealand’s totems, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock, after they eschewed the opportunity to pick a more traditional No.4 like Brad Thorn. This is in contrast with the Springboks, who have selected the sizeable tight-end locks Bakkies Botha and Eben Etzebeth for 221 Springbok Tests since 2002.
This isn’t a complete surprise. Rassie has always been a leader, unafraid to take big calls. He is an innovator and a visionary and neutrals have always said he’s ahead of the curve, but there’s no doubt there’s risk to this selection. It’s a roll of the dice with no guarantee of success.
So what’s his modus operandi? Is he creating pressure for the senior players, to let them know they are not undroppable, or is it simply an admission that he’s stuck with his band of brothers for too long? It’s something he will never admit publicly but has he now decided to carefully phase his World Cup winners out?
Rassie is in a similar position to Wales under Warren Gatland and Ireland under Andy Farrell. Both sides had considerable success with a golden generation, but father time waits for no man, and the transition to bed in their successors is notoriously difficult. Indeed, it’s not always easy to spot when a players’ abilities are about to take a nosedive.
Knowing when to, in essence, decommission a player is such a skill. When I look at great managers, it’s hard to look past the great Sir Alex Ferguson. He, almost above every other manager, had a gut feeling of when was the right time to let a player go. Look at Paul McGrath, Paul Ince, Roy Keane and David Beckham. They were all ushered out of the door early, despite public protestations, and invariably he was proved right.
This is a test. Wellington will tell us whether he’ll get some moments of magic from this younger crop or a reaction further down the line from the veterans he’s omitted.
Something’s clearly changed behind closed doors. After saying he’d stopped gambling with selection, he’s probably gone with one of the most inexperienced backlines he’s picked since he started coaching. There are only 173 caps in that backline, with an average of 25 caps per player. It’s gifted but green.
Let’s take Ethan Hooker. He has talent. He’s quick and he has all the skills, but Rassie hasn’t surrounded him with experience and that worries me. I know he’s got (Aphelele) Fassi and (Cheslin) Kolbe for company, but it’s not the same as having Jesse Kriel inside him to cover the defensive channel or having all of Willie Le Roux’s rugby IP to guide him through a testing 80 minutes. It’s sink or swim and I wish him well.
Then there’s Canan (Moodie). He has the talent to play anywhere in the Boks backline, but in the past few games he hasn’t shown that quality and in truth, he’s been disappointing. He hasn’t carried that initial wow factor and kicked on. I think it was the first Test he’d lost, in his 13th appearance, so he’s been fortunate as a Test player so far. He’s still young, however.
Moving to midfield, to select a combination that has never played together before, let alone trained together is bold in the extreme. Remember, this is going up against an All Blacks team who scored three tries and went really well against a tried and tested midfield combo like De Allende and Kriel.
Rassie has thrown curveballs before but never in a must-win game out in New Zealand.
Even though it’s two losses out of three, you can’t forget Rassie has runs on the board. He has a strong relationship with SA Rugby, the support of the fans and the backing of the players. There is no way a coach fighting for his life would have made that selection and he knows it.
Another point worth mentioning is last week’s team announcement being moved to the Thursday. In retrospect, he admitted it was the wrong call because it unsettled the group. The players expect certainty in Test week to train and work on combinations and they’ve reverted to type by announcing on Monday for this Saturday’s Test. Last week they were undone by the fact Siya came in late, which had a domino effect on everyone. You had a different 8, a different captain and the net result was an L on the scoreboard.
There’s a touch of French selection to Rassie’s side. After a loss, the French would historically, with a Gallic shrug, throw the selection cards up in the air and see where they land. Traditionally, the Springboks have been a bit more conservative. Usually you measure the cohesion and teamwork index. You know, the number of hours that teams play and train together. It’s a sporting equation that usually brings consistency but if you’re changing, changing, changing, it does create doubt.
Even up front, those bedrocks of South African scrummaging power, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, Francois Malherbe, Bongi Bonambi, are a distant memory, but I have high hopes for Jan Hendrik-Wessels. He is the real deal. He’s John Smit, Bismarck du Plessis and Malcolm Marx rolled into one. The epitome of the type of forward South Africa are trying to produce and their direction of travel.
In fact, the one stable combination they’ve selected is at 6, 7 and 8, with Jasper Wiese, Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit. They need that trio to stay on the park for as long as possible.
One thing I will say is that Rassie won’t die wondering. If that backline ran a 100m race against any of its rivals, it would probably be collectively the quickest backline they could select. They are seriously rapid, – and I include Grant Williams in that. Hooker would be quicker than most wings, Moodie would be quicker than most centres, Willemse would beat Kriel and De Allende and Sacha (Feinberg-Mgomezulu) would be quicker than Handre Pollard and Manie Libbok. If there’s a linebreak and space, they will eat defenders alive but it the weather’s poor, and it turns into a dogfight is things could go South pretty quickly because they’re match-winners, not playmakers. They prefer being put into space rather than putting others into space.
As you can gather, the selection has raised eyebrows. Some are saying it’s panic. People are saying Rassie’s had enough, so he’s chucked a grenade in. Only after 80 minutes will we know whether it’s inspired or foolhardy.
All the public will want to know is it the right or wrong time to roll the dice? Even if he loses, Rassie will wear a loss with a smile, even if it’s thinly veiled. If the 2025 Rugby Championship is already consigned to history, he still has the end-of-year tour to level things up. The Ireland and France Test will be a true measure of where the Springboks are going into 2026, but change is afoot in the Springbok ranks, of that you can be sure.