Like a fine wine: Jack Gunston seems to be getting better with ageCredit: AFL Photos
The gap between first and eighth on the home-and-away ladder turns out to be significant, but not in the way the ladder ordained.
If Geelong are the clear favourites to reach the grand final, Hawthorn are a much more serious threat than a regulation lower-eight finalist.
There’s a touch of the 2016 Bulldogs about these Hawks – except that they’re Hawthorn, no one’s notion of Cinderella. As with 2016, the lower eight sides had win tallies that would often put them in the top four.
Jack Ginnivan at his antagonistic best.Credit: Fox Footy
Sam Mitchell’s men have been defined by their confidence, panache and a cast of characters who typify the new Instagram generation’s fondness for self-expression.
One of that extroverted cohort, Jack Ginnivan, has been nursing hamstring soreness, while the team’s outstanding veteran Jack Gunston, too, felt some soreness in the same place and left the game as a protective measure in the final term – by which stage, he’d booted a decisive five goals.
The Hawks say Ginnivan and Gunston are fine.
It is difficult to see any changes at Hawthorn, the long shot option of picking 300-game great Luke Breust for his last hurrah having been sadly curtailed by a potentially serious knee injury in the VFL.
Mitch Lewis’ form is modest, but the Hawks cannot stump up a forward line with only one genuine tall in Mabior Chol, who offers more flair than bankability and has to play second ruck.
The wildcard in Mitchell’s deck is Josh Weddle, who can be used in multiple roles, due to his speed-height-aerobic fitness combination. Weddle’s demonstrated aptitude for playing forward offers Mitchell another option if Chol, Lewis and Gunston are contained.
Balls up: Bailey Smith and Jarman Impey got into it on Easter Monday this year.Credit: Seven
Geelong’s form cannot be faulted, and they enter their 10th prelim in 15 years (and 15th in 22 seasons) in showroom condition – they have virtually no injuries, besides ruckman Rhys Stanley, whose absence in the qualifying final was more than adequately covered by Mark Blicavs.
Geelong’s ability to pressure the Lions and utterly shut down their ball movement were notable, as was the early-game touch of Jeremy Cameron, Max Holmes’ explosive running and Ollie Dempsey’s skills.
The Cats haven’t shown much in the way of weakness, don’t have injuries and will be more rested – 14 days, compared to Hawthorn’s seven. They have Tom Stewart firing and Bailey Smith ready to strut before 95,000-plus fans.
Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore and Collingwood could be on their way to a second flag in three seasons.Credit: AFL Photos
But Geelong’s most recent encounter with these Hokball Hawks was another cliffhanger, albeit a messy masterpiece. At one point, the Hawks had 11 consecutive clearances as they surged back.
The difference? The Cats took their chances. Hawthorn couldn’t.
It is rare for the leviathan Collingwood Football Club, the club that draws eyeballs and attention like no other, to be overshadowed in a weekend of preliminary finals.
Geelong and Hawthorn – a rivalry and saga – is worthy of a Netflix series. In days of yore, before it all went digital, fans would already be lined up for a seat.
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