Live results and commentary from the New South Wales state by-election for Kiama.
Projected 3CP
Projected 2CP
Win Probability
Click here for full display of Kiama by-election results
End of evening. Labor has comfortably won the Kiama by-election with what I’m projecting to be 59.2% of the two-party vote. This pushes Labor to 46 seats out of 93 in the Legislative Assembly, such that the government will now rely on the support of one independent rather than two. It will be noted that the two-party swing is nonetheless a seemingly healthy 10.8% in favour of the Liberals, but this is somewhat deceptive: far more ballots had Labor higher than Liberal at the 2023 election because much of the conservative vote had gone to Gareth Ward, and as with all voters in New South Wales, a good proportion of these would have given him a first preference and left it at that. It may be more instructive to compare the result with the result with Ward’s 8.7% margin as a Liberal on the same boundaries in 2019, such that this can be seen as a Labor swing of around 18% off that base.
8.57pm. The big Albion Park early voting centre is the first such to report, with 7771 formal votes, and it too records swings little different from the polling day votes.
8.27pm. There are now 2415 postal votes in the count, which have swung in an almost identical fashion to the polling day votes.
7.49pm. All but three out of 22 polling day booths are in on the primary vote, with the TCP counts starting to catch up. As yet there are no pre-poll booths in, but we will presumably see at least some of those later in the evening, and perhaps also some postals.
7.39pm. And now I’m calling it for Labor, with 15 booths in on the primary and three on two-candidate, the projected Liberal swing now down to 10.0%.
7.34pm. With 13 booths in on the primary vote and two on tw0-party, my system is now basing its projection on the actually observed preference flow so far, which is more favourable to Labor than my estimates. The swing is accordingly down 10.4%, and the Labor win probability up to 98.6% — the system will call it when it gets to 99%.
7.18pm. We’re now up to seven booths on the primary vote, and my projection of the two-party Liberal swing remains short of a required 19.7% at 13.8%. However, my system is applying a wide margin-of-error to this due to the absence of two-candidate results, getting Labor as far as a 78.9% win probability. If the two-candidate results confirm my preference estimates are broadly correct, it will probably start calling it for Labor.
7.14pm. A fourth booth, which was probably the Gerroa Neighbourhood Centre, moves the dial slightly to the Liberals, their vote there picking by a handy 22.5%. This pushes the two-party swing up from 12.0% to 13.8%, though that’s still well short of the 19.7% they need. It should be noted that this is based off my pre-determined preference estimates, there being still no two-candidate preferred results.
7.05pm. Three booths in now on the primary vote, and while I’m projecting a 12.0% two-party swing to the Liberals, they actually need more like 20% — the figure flatters them because much of their normal support base cast a one-only vote for Gareth Ward in 2023.
7.03pm. The first result in is 386 primary votes from Kiama High, and while the Liberal vote neatly doubles to 21.0%, the gain is less than what they would not from Gareth Ward’s vote from 2023. However, it looks like this was quite a weak booth for Ward, and my system is well short of calling it.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Kiama by-election, occasioned by the forced resignation of independent Gareth Ward, and generally considered a strong opportunity for Labor to get its representation up from 45 to 46 in a chamber of 93. There are a few small rural booths in this electorate, so we will presumably be seeing some sort of result well within the hour.
Author: William Bowe