Zach Merrett’s apparent desire to leave Essendon for Hawthorn has rapidly become the season’s most shocking trade development.

And as tensions continue to bubble into the public forum, it’s appearing increasingly likely that the 12-year Bomber will ultimately don brown and gold in 2026.

The Herald Sun’s Jay Clark has reported Merrett will “push ahead with plans to join Hawthorn”, while AFL Media’s Cal Twomey says the Bombers’ skipper is “hellbent” on defecting. Bombers great Matthew Lloyd, meanwhile, believes Merrett shouldn’t return to the club after things have “turned nasty”.

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Given Merrett’s status as a contracted player, things could get ugly if the star midfielder and five-time Essendon club champion ultimately decides to try and force his way out.

And while the Hawks won’t want to give up the world for a player who’ll be 30 years old next season, Merrett is still one of the competition’s most durable players — playing 251 of a possible 266 games in his career — and consistent elite performers. He might yet play for another five or six years.

His pure worth, at minimum, is two first-round picks — and depending on where in the order those picks hypothetically fall, more than that in some circumstances.

Keeping all that in mind, Foxfooty.com.au explores five hypothetical Zach Merrett-to-Hawthorn trade packages ahead of the October trade window.

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Hypothetical no.1

Hawthorn gets: Zach Merrett

Essendon gets: Pick 8 (via Carlton), 2026 first-round pick (via Hawthorn), Cam Mackenzie

Hawthorn owns Carlton’s first and second-round picks this November, which currently sit eighth in the order. Any Merrett package would almost certainly have to revolve around the no.8 pick.

However, that slot is set to shift down to at least 10th after compensation picks are awarded to West Coast and Essendon, and lower if a Daniel Annable bid is matched early on in proceedings, as is expected.

In this scenario, the Bombers take on Mackenzie, who’s contracted for another season but has fallen out of favour under coach Sam Mitchell in the back half of his third season — playing just 12 senior games after 20 last year.

The former no.7 pick would prospectively boost an Essendon midfield in need of variance, with the likes of Will Setterfield and Ben Hobbs still uncontracted for next season, while Elijah Tsatas has an uncertain Bombers future.

In this deal, the Bombers would also gain a first-rounder next year, courtesy of Hawthorn, which will very likely come late in the order.

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Hypothetical no.2

Hawthorn gets: Zach Merrett

Essendon gets: Pick 8 (via Carlton), Pick 26 (via Carlton), 2026 first-round pick (via Hawthorn), Henry Hustwaite

Here, the Bombers get the two first-round picks — but they also get a second-rounder this year courtesy of Carlton, and contracted midfielder Hustwaite.

Similar to Mackenzie, Hustwaite has been unable to hold down a senior spot under Mitchell this year but has looked capable of playing at the level.

However, the no.37 pick from 2022 isn’t seen in the same light as Mackenzie, hence the inclusion of Pick 26 in addition to the two firsts to appease the Dons.

But Hustwaite, still just 21 years of age, would prospectively have a great opportunity to break into the starting Essendon midfield with another pre-season under his belt.

The Herald Sun’s Jon Ralph reported on Fox Footy’s Midweek Tackle days ago that Hustwaite was “desperate” for a chance elsewhere amid a lack of Hawks opportunities.

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Hypothetical no.3

Hawthorn gets: Zach Merrett, 2026 third-round pick (via Essendon)

Essendon gets: Pick 8 (via Carlton), 2026 first-round pick (via Hawthorn), Mitch Lewis

In this scenario, the Hawks get a third-rounder back next year in addition to Merrett, since they’re parting with Lewis.

As we know, good key-position players are hard to find and thus hold more value — and while Lewis has undeniably struggled with injury in recent years, the 26-year-old is back in Mitchell’s side playing a key finals role.

Lewis would significantly bolster Essendon’s key forward stocks, adding another tall marking target and goalkicking force to aid future star Nate Caddy and Kyle Langford.

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Hypothetical no.4

Hawthorn gets: Zach Merrett

Essendon gets: Pick 8 (via Carlton), Pick 26 (via Carlton), 2026 first-round pick (via Hawthorn), Jai Serong

Here, the Bombers get those three picks, but this time the player is Serong, who’s flashed signs he could be a serious stopper at the level but has found himself stuck behind Hawthorn’s star key defenders.

The Hawks have a litany of gun backmen — with Sam Frost also finding himself on the outer this year after playing a consistent senior role last season — and the out-of-contract Serong could assess rival overtures this off-season, as first reported by Foxfooty.com.au’s Will Faulkner in May.

As a concept, the 22-year-old 10-gamer makes sense for the Bombers, who could lose gun interceptor Jordan Ridley this off-season and who’ve had injury strife with key defenders Zach Reid, Ben McKay and Lewis Hayes.

At worst, Serong could be solid depth, but at best, he could be a high-upside best-23 mainstay.

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Hypothetical no.5

Hawthorn gets: Zach Merrett

Essendon gets: Pick 8 (via Carlton), 2026 first-round pick (via Hawthorn), 2027 second-round pick (via Hawthorn)

In this scenario, the Hawks only part with picks — adding a 2027 second-rounder into the equation to offset the fact that their first-rounder next year will come late on.

It also sees Hawthorn exercise the AFL’s new rule which permits teams to trade draft capital two years in advance.

That 2027 second-rounder should still come fairly late, though, with the Hawks surely still in the flag window in two years’ time.

At face value, this hypothetical seems one of the least likely, given the Bombers would surely be chasing a proven player asset in addition to draft picks.