Anyone who presents a reasonable argument that they might have been a victim of trafficking is entitled to at least 45 days to “recover and reflect” – with a final decision on their case maybe a year down the road.
If this claimant gets that positive decision, he could be off the removal list for a year on top of that as he waits a final outcome.
The political risk for the government is that their own lawyer is now proved right, not least because so many arriving on small boats have travelled through countries like Libya where trafficking and abuse are rife.
It is too soon to say conclusively whether Tuesday’s interim judgment means that this scheme will get bogged down in repeated legal action like the Conservatives’ proposed Rwanda policy, which never got off the ground before being cancelled by Sir Keir Starmer 14 months ago when he entered office.
The Conservatives, though, see vindication in the development. Their leader, Kemi Badenoch, told LBC that her message for the government was: “We told you so.”
Science Secretary Liz Kendall told BBC Breakfast that scheme was not intended as a “silver bullet” and this single ruling would “not stop this really important deal from going ahead”.
The deal with France was seen by the previous home secretary, Yvette Cooper, as one of her landmark policy achievements, it is now the job of her successor, Mahmood, to make it work.
Mahmood is seen at the government as a punchier communicator – displayed, perhaps, in her opening vow as home secretary to do “whatever it takes” to tackle illegal immigration.
Her colleagues will be hoping she is not having to deploy those communication skills at the end of the week to explain why no-one has been flown to France yet.