With both supportive demand signals and bearish supply trends in play, trader reaction to the 50-day MA will be pivotal in setting the tone into the close.
At 16:42 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.079, down $0.024 or -0.77%.
Can Production Softness Offset Record-High Supply?
While U.S. natural gas production remains near record highs at 106.0 Bcf/d (+4.8% y/y), recent output has softened slightly, offering some near-term support for prices. LNG exports also remain firm at 15.2 Bcf/d (+4.0% w/w), and electricity output continues to climb, with the Edison Electric Institute reporting a +1.03% y/y increase in power generation for the week ending September 6.
These demand-side supports are battling against bearish undertones from the EIA’s recent storage build. Last week’s +71 Bcf injection exceeded consensus (+68 Bcf) and the five-year average (+56 Bcf), pushing inventories 6.0% above seasonal norms.
How Is Heat Driving Power Burns and Spot Prices?
Weather remains a central driver, with hotter-than-normal conditions forecast through September 30. Atmospheric G2 and NatGasWeather both highlight persistent heat across much of the U.S., supporting power burns as cooling demand ramps up.
Widespread 80s and 90s, with triple-digit heat in the Southwest, are keeping cash prices elevated and reinforcing the recent rally. However, national demand is expected to remain moderate overall through September 21, which may cap further upside unless forecasts trend hotter.