Where will the
Merseyside derby be won and lost on Saturday? We pick out five
areas of the game that could prove crucial when Liverpool host
Everton.
The Merseyside derby is always hugely important to Liverpool
and Everton,
but it also feels significant to the wider Premier
League this time.
Both teams have started the season well. The Reds have four wins
from four, beginning their title defence in effective fashion. The
Toffees, meanwhile, haven’t finished above 10th in the table since
2018-19 yet currently sit sixth in the Premier League
standings.
Liverpool are strong favourites with the Opta
supercomputer to win the derby but Everton have rarely arrived
at Anfield in such fine fettle. Here are five factors that may
determine the colour Merseyside is painted at full-time on
Saturday.
Will
Mohamed Salah Kickstart His Premier League Season?
Mohamed
Salah is not like most players. He has scored twice and
assisted a dramatic 100th- minute winner, yet it feels like he
hasn’t started the 2025-26 league campaign that well. Most
footballers would love that level of output.
Salah has averaged 0.50 non-penalty goals and assists in the
league this season, half his rate from 2024-25 (1.01) and well
below the average for his Liverpool career (0.88).
It will partly be because the 33-year-old has been less involved
in Liverpool’s play than in years past. Salah is averaging 42.9
touches per 90 minutes, at least four fewer than in any other
Premier League campaign with the Reds. If that doesn’t sound
significant, his rate for open-play touches in the opposition’s
penalty area has almost halved since last season, from 10.1 to 6.0
per 90.
The proportion of his touches that are in the opposition’s area
is now 13.5%, down from 21% last season. Salah can score or assist
from just about anywhere, but this shift will affect his
output.
Across 359 minutes of Premier League football this season, Salah
has averaged just 0.08xG from non-penalty shots. That rate is lower
than 44 players to have played at least 300 minutes in the
competition this season, and more worrying when considering he
averaged 0.49 in 2024-25.
A visit from Everton could be just what he needs. With eight
Premier League goals against Everton, Salah only trails Steven
Gerrard (nine) in the derby goal rankings for Liverpool. He has two
derby assists too, but he will need to be on the ball more and in
more threatening areas.
Diogo Jota’s final goal was the winner in this fixture. Nobody
would be surprised if Salah honoured him by doing likewise on
Saturday, especially after being boosted by his Champions League
goal against Atlético Madrid in midweek. He was much busier in that
match on Wednesday night, attempting six shots worth 0.92 xG.
Jack
Grealish Could Be Everton’s X Factor
The Everton faithful took Jack
Grealish to their collective heart immediately. How often will
they see a £100 million player wearing the famous blue shirt?
He has made a fantastic start. Grealish recently became the
first Everton player to provide at least two assists in consecutive
Premier League games. His red-hot (or should that be ‘blue hot’?)
start helped him become the competition’s Player of the Month for
the first time in his career.
Grealish also has an excellent record against Liverpool. He has
more goal contributions in meetings with the Reds (seven) than any
other club in his Premier League career.
Admittedly, this is largely down to his efforts in Aston Villa’s
remarkable 7-2 win over the Reds in 2020. Grealish scored twice and
collected a hat-trick of assists, making him the only player in
Premier League history to record five goal contributions in a match
against Liverpool.
A repeat won’t occur this weekend, though the on-loan Manchester
City winger will be vital to Everton’s attack. Likely starting on
the left of the attacking midfield trident in Everton’s 4-2-3-1
formation, it’s unclear which right-back Grealish will aim to
torment.
Dominik Szoboszlai started the Reds’ previous three league
games after
Jeremie Frimpong began the Community Shield and Premier League
opener against Bournemouth. Conor
Bradley played 45 minutes at Burnley last weekend, while
Frimpong got the nod against Atlético.
Whomever Arne Slot selects they will need to be on their game.
Grealish is joint-fourth in the Premier League for completed
take-ons this term, while only Bruno
Fernandes has created more chances in open play.
If he can get past Liverpool’s right-back, Thierno
Barry or Beto
need to be ready as a key pass will likely be heading in their
direction.
Will the
Early Kick-off Work in Everton’s Favour?
Jürgen Klopp was a vocal opponent to 12:30 Saturday kick-offs,
particularly after his Liverpool side had played a European game on
Wednesday night. That will be the case here, after the
Reds beat Atlético Madrid 3-2 in dramatic fashion in
midweek.
Liverpool’s results gave Klopp ample reason to be annoyed.
Between August 2022 and April 2023, the Reds drew three and lost
three of their six 12:30 Saturday kick-offs in the Premier League.
That run included a goalless draw at Everton.
However, the Merseyside derby in question was one of five away
games in that six-game sequence. Slot’s Reds only had two lunchtime
Saturday kick-offs in the league last season and they were both on
the road too. Such matches are inevitably more difficult, but they
won both – 2-0 versus Ipswich on the opening day of the season and
1-0 at Crystal Palace in October.
As chance would have it, Liverpool’s last home league game in
this time slot was against Everton in October 2023. Even though
Ashley
Young was sent off in just the 37th minute, Liverpool didn’t
break the deadlock until Salah converted a 75th-minute penalty. He
later added a second goal in stoppage time.
As much as the swift turnaround will be tough, whenever
Liverpool have played a 12:30 game on a Saturday following a
Champions League game on the Wednesday, the league match has been
away. The kick-off time may not be the automatic advantage for
Everton that many assume.
Everton
Must Avoid Dark Arts to End David Moyes’ Anfield
Drought
There is no sugarcoating David Moyes’ record against Liverpool
at Anfield. It is horrendous.
The Scot is winless in 20 league matches at Anfield, collecting
a paltry six points from a possible 60. It is the joint-most
Premier League games any manager has played at a stadium without a
victory.
The problem for Moyes is that he’s tied with himself for this
unwanted record, thanks to also failing to win in 20 games at
Stamford Bridge. At least he doesn’t have to worry about traveling
to Chelsea until mid-December.
Indiscipline has been part of the problem. The Merseyside derby
has seen more red cards than any other Premier League fixture.
Moyes’ Everton account for a large proportion of the total of 25,
with 11 amassed on his watch.
It is the most any team have had under one manager in a fixture.
The tally includes dismissals for Andy van der Meyde and Steven
Pienaar in Anfield derby defeats.
All eyes will be on match referee Darren England once the derby
tackles thunder in. He sent off
Ryan Gravenberch at Anfield in the final match of last season,
though that was for a professional foul rather than a dangerous
challenge. England hasn’t shown a red card in his 14 previous
Everton matches.
Moyes has rarely taken such an in-form side to Anfield. If his
players can maintain their discipline then it could help him secure
a famous first victory at the stadium.
The
Set-Piece Factor Could Prove Decisive
When these teams met for the final time at Goodison Park,
Everton opened the scoring from a set-play. With possession likely
to be at a premium for the Blues on Saturday, this may prove their
best route to scoring once again.
While Everton cannot match up to Arsenal for dead-ball
proficiency, they have been among the best of the rest. They scored
19 goals from set-pieces in 2023-24, a total that has been topped
only 12 times in the Premier League from 2009-10 onward.
If not as reliant on them since Moyes replaced Sean Dyche, they
remain valuable. Everton’s one set-play goal this season opened the
scoring in their 3-2 win at Wolves. They scored twice from such
situations in a 3-1 victory at Fulham in May, while their winner at
Crystal Palace in February came from a corner. Their importance on
the road is all too clear.
Everton have also had both the most shots (24) and the greatest
share of shots from set-pieces (50.0%) in the Premier League this
season, while only Arsenal (3.2) have generated a higher xG than
the Toffees from dead-ball situations (3.1).
This is pertinent as Liverpool possess one of the greatest
shares of shots faced from set-pieces (44.1% – behind only
Chelsea’s 46.3%). The Reds lost a 2-0 lead against 10-man Newcastle
thanks to goals from dead-ball situations too.
They deserve credit for recovering from that to hold the supreme
threat of Arsenal at bay in their next match. The Everton fans at
the Anfield Road end will get very excited any time their side gets
a corner, though.
Subscribe
to our football
newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should
also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.