Over the past few days several readers have emailed in seeking an update on the likelihood of an independent candidate making the ballot for President.
Of the dozens of people who have appeared before various county councils in recent days seeking their support, it might be said that only three had done any of the required work to lobby politicians to put them on the ballot. Some candidates, like Dolores Cahill, simply turned up and asked for votes. This was never likely to work. They also had no organised campaign. Therefore I am discounting them.
There are three people who meet the basic criteria of having publicly sought the office, having a recognisable campaign, and having made a consistent and professional pitch for support. Those are, in order of their public entrance to the race, Nick Delehanty, Gareth Sheridan, and Maria Steen.
We will take them in turn.
There are two ways to make the Presidential ballot if you are not an incumbent President. Either you present signed nomination papers with the support of 20 members of the Oireachtas (TDs and Senators but not MEPS), or you present signed nomination papers with the endorsement of four county or city councils (local authorities).
At the time of writing, Delehanty has the backing of 0 TDs and Senators and 0 councils.
Sheridan has the backing of 0 TDs and Senators but 2 councils.
Steen has the backing of 10 TDs and Senators but 0 councils.
Nick Delehanty’s window for making it on to the Presidential Ballot is closing fast. At the time of writing on Tuesday evening, he has won the public backing of no members of the Oireachtas and no local authorities.
He has two things against him: The first is that time is now short and the momentum, such as it is, is with other candidates. In the Oireachtas, the decision of 10TDs to back Steen means that there is no mathematical path to 20 for either him or Sheridan. In the County Councils, Sheridan having secured the backing of Tipperary and Kerry means momentum is against Delehanty.
The second, speaking frankly, is that Councillors in particular are very reluctant to nominate for President somebody who failed to win a seat to the council when he sought it last year. This is unfair on Delehanty given that neither Steen nor Sheridan even contested such an election, but in politics, perception matters more than fairness.
His race is almost certainly run.
Sheridan has won the backing of two councils, but that is not quite the good news it seems. The two that did back him – Kerry and Tipperary – were long seen as the two councils into which he had put the most time and effort. In both cases, his victories were exceedingly narrow. And in the meantime, he lost other councils that were seen as favourable to him by some on his team – Laois and Fingal being two examples. Wicklow, another council with heavy independent membership, also voted no.
He still has a path: He will need to win the support of Waterford County and City Council when that body meets on Friday, and hope for backing from Sligo, Meath, or Leitrim next Monday. Of these, Waterford is by far the most crucial as it was seen by multiple candidates as being willing to nominate in principle. He will hope to somehow get to three councils, and hope that the pressure of having three pushes someone else across the line. He is halfway there, but well over half the available councils have already voted. He will need to dramatically improve his “hit rate” by next Monday to make the ballot.
Steen is also halfway there but by the other route, the Oireachtas.
She has the public backing of 8 TDs and Senators, comprising the 3 Aontu members, Senators Keogan, Conway and Mullen, and TDs Carol Nolan and Mattie McGrath. She also has the undeclared support of two further TDs, whom informed speculation suggests to be Independent Deputies Paul Gogarty and Gillian Toole.
Like Sheridan, she still has a path to the nomination, but like him, her path is very narrow.
It involves the following: The support of Independent Ireland’s 4 TDs would bring her to 14. The support of Trinity Senator Aubrey McCarthy would make it 15. Senator Michael McDowell would make 16. Senator Victor Boyhan, an independent, would make 17. None of these people have publicly stated that they will not support her.
After that, it becomes more complicated: She would need the backing of Deputy Danny Healy Rae to get to 18 and the support of Independent TD for Dublin Bay North Barry Heneghan to get to 19. Like Sheridan, she would then have to hope that the “pressure” of her being on 19 votes might shake somebody else loose. Wildcard candidates for that final vote would include names like FF TD John McGuinness, who has been known to be independent minded, or a surprise last minute reversal of his position from Senator Gerard Craughwell.
In any case: Her path to 20 is exceedingly narrow, and can afford few failures. Most political observers expect that she will not get there. You would be brave, sadly, to bet against them.
Should none of the three candidates make it, then it will be up to Sinn Fein solely to decide whether to back Catherine Connolly or to run their own candidate. For now, it is understood that they lean towards the former option.
Which would mean a three-way Presidential election. As I observed on social media yesterday, looking at the state of the three candidates in the race, political desperation to block Steen, Delehanty, or Sheridan might become more understandable.
This is not, I’m afraid, a very strong field.