Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money has trimmed more rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE AFFORDABLE
Home loan affordability for first home buyers is improving steadily. Home ownership is now affordable for typical first home buyers in most parts of the country except Auckland and Tauranga. There is a virtuous pairing of lower asking prices and lower (although recently stable) mortgage interest rates. And in the background, take home pay is rising, even if only modestly. It a combination we haven’t witnessed in a generation, maybe longer.

NOT RECOVERING MUCH
There were only 142 tractors sold in June, a recovery from the 115 sold in June 2024 but still well below the ten year average for a June of 183.

A LOW BAR. RETAILERS MUCH MORE CONFIDENT – OF SURVIVING
Retailers are showing renewed confidence in the face of ongoing economic challenges, according to their trade Retail radar survey. The quarterly survey, covering April-June 2025, reveals that 69% of them are confident or very confident their business will survive the next 12 months, a notable increase from 57% in the same quarter last year.

TRADE SURPLUS AGAIN
Led by a very strong +22% rise in dairy exports, June goods exports rose by +$601 mln or +10 to $6.6 bln. But June goods imports rose by +$1.0 bln (which included a $123 mln aircraft from the US) or +19% to $6.5 billion. So we posted monthly trade balance of +$142 mln. In June 2024 we posted a trade surplus of +$577 mln. In June 2023 it was a deficit of -$115 mln. This year imports surged from Singapore (refined petroleum) and Korea (cars). Over the April to June quarter we have posted an unusually positive +2.5 bln surplus.

DEBT DEMAND RISES
There were tentative signs of a recovery in credit demand in Equifax’s July Credit Insights report. Data for June showed high-DTI lending rose for both owner-occupiers and investors for the month of June compared to June 2024, with the percentage for first home buyers rising from 2.24% to 6.51%, for other owner occupiers from 5.11% to 9.59%, and for investors from 3.69% to 9.83%. Home loan weekly enquiries were up by almost +16% year-to-date from a year ago, recovering from pre-pandemic levels for the first time since October 2022.

CONVICTED & FINED
Debt collector Law Debt Collection (LDC) and its director John Stuart Campbell have been convicted and fined for misleading conduct. They have been ordered to pay a total of $115,500 in fines and emotional harm reparations for breaching the Fair Trading Act. Both pleaded guilty following a Commerce Commission prosecution.

NZX50 THUDS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is taking it on the chin, but it is still up +1.0% from a week ago. It is now down -1.9% since the start of the year although up +4.1% from this time last year. Sky TV, Oceania, Heartland and Channel Infrastructure gain as Auckland Airport, Gentrack, Freightways and Kathmandu slide.

SOMEONE ELSE COULD DO BETTER
Come and get it – Fletcher puts ‘for sale’ signs on its problematic construction division. Fletcher Building is now officially looking to sell its construction division, responsible for about 20% of the company’s revenues and a large proportion of its headaches.

ANOTHER BIG CORPORATE BOND
Transpower said today it is launching a 5-year unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate green bonds offer to retail and institutional investors. They want to raise at least $100 mln, but have left the option to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. The five year swap rate is about 3.6% and depending on demand will pay a margin over that rate of the settlement date of 0.70% to 0.73%. But there will be no public pool, because all this paper will only be offered through “clients of the Lead Manager, primary market participants and other approved financial intermediaries”. The lead manager is Westpac.

EYES ON WMP PRICE
There is another dairy Pulse auction tomorrow for SMP and WMP. The futures market is pricing for a +1.5% rise in SMP but a -4.5% drop in the WMP price. If the WMP fall eventuates it will have taken the WMP price back to late 2024 levels, a fall of 14% from the May peak. If that happens it won’t go un-noticed.

ON VULTURE WATCH
In Australia, the vultures are out targeting vulnerable borrowers who are debt stressed. It has ASIC worried and they have launched a review into the debt management and credit repair sector in an effort to protect those experiencing financial hardship. Expect the Commerce Commission here to assess whether it needs to do similar work.

MINUTES, SHMINUTES
Staying in Australia, the RBA released the minutes of its July 8 meeting and they revealed little new. They left its cash rate steady at 3.85% at this meeting, defying market forecasts for a -25 bps cut. The move was passed by majority vote, six in favour and three against. These minutes were full of “wait and see” sentiment, “data dependent” notes. Part of the waiting-to-see is because they doubt Trump will actually do what he threatens. They buy the TACO view apparently.

ISHIBA LOSES THEN ‘WINS’
Sentiment in Japan bounced back today as it became a clearer bet that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to remain in office despite the embarrassing performance of his party at the recent upper house elections. But holding on, he will be a damaged leader. The upstart ‘Japanese First’ Sanseito party has emerged as powerful force after these elections, and that was despite a ‘secret’ Russian campaign to support them (and destabilise Japan) that was exposed before voting.

SWAP RATES HOLD LOWER
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.26% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.59% and down -3 bps at 4.55% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps at 4.37%

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is down a sharpish -1.1% in late Tuesday trade. However the ASX200 is unchanged after taking theri hit on Monday.Tokyo is up +0.2% in early trade today. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open and Shanghai is unchanged too. Singapore has also opened down -0.3%. Wall Street opened strongly with a +0.6% gain to a new record high. But that faded in its Monday trade and it was lucky to end with a +0.1% gain on the S&P500.

OIL RETREATS IN THE US, ELSEWHERE NOT SO MUCH
The oil price in the US is down a sharpish -US$2 at just under US$65.50/bbl but down much less to US$68.50 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STILL ON HOLD
The carbon price is still at NZ$58/NZU with bidders having virtually disappeared. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$36/oz to US$3389/oz.

NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is up +15 bps from this time yesterday at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at just on 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 67.3.

BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$117,077 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest, now at just on +/-1.2.

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