Ciattarelli internal poll shows him leading Sherrill by 1

An internal poll for Republican Jack Ciattarelli shows him leading Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) by 1 percentage point in the race for governor.

The poll found Ciattarelli leading 46%-45% in a two-way race, including a 21-point lead among voters not registered with either party. The poll is the first publicly released poll to show Ciattarelli leading — Sherrill had led all polls in the primary and general elections.

National Research, a New Jersey-based firm founded by Adam Geller, conducted the poll. The firm surveyed 600 likely voters from Sept. 16-18. The New Jersey Globe has reviewed the entire questionnaire.

The poll found term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy’s approval rating underwater, at 35% approve and 53% disapprove. Public polls have largely shown Murphy to have even or slightly positive approval ratings.

The internal poll comes with the typical caveats — campaigns tend to release the polls and memos that benefit them strategically. National Research is an established pollster among Republicans — the firm polled on behalf of President Trump’s campaign or Trump-backing super PACs for each of the last three presidential elections.

The polling memo states the firm conducted a similar survey that concluded Sept. 10 — that poll found Sherrill leading by 2 points, 47%-45%. A poll from National Research in June showed Ciattarelli within the margin of error.

Public polls have mostly shown Sherrill with an 8- or 9-point lead. A Quinnipiac University Poll from last week found Sherrill leading 49% to 41%.

Mail-in ballots were mailed Saturday, meaning voting effectively starts Monday for many. The first gubernatorial debate of the year, sponsored by the New Jersey Globe, On New Jersey, and Rider University, is Sunday at 7 p.m.

The National Research poll was conducted Sept. 16-18 with a sample of 600 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 4%.