The Connor McDavid contract saga has found its way into the NHL preseason for the Edmonton Oilers.

Anxiety is the name of the game these days in Oil Country as McDavid is preparing to enter the final season of his contract. Though the Oilers captain has yet to appear in a preseason game this year, many are awaiting his big off-ice move by signing an extension with the team.

There have been mixed signals lately, with Edmonton GM Stan Bowman remaining confident that a deal will get done. On the other side, a concerning interview between McDavid and Sportsnet’s Kyle Bukauskas and Elliotte Friedman had some thinking that an extension may not be in the cards.

It’s anybody’s guess on how this saga will eventually end, but Friedman’s may hold more weight considering his inside knowledge. On the latest edition of the 32 Thoughts podcast, the veteran NHL insider made a specific prediction on what McDavid’s next contract will look like if he does return to the Oilers.

“I believe, I really believe more than ever, if McDavid signs in Edmonton, if he does, it’ll be for a lower number than we all expect,” Friedman said. “I think it’s going to surprise people where it could end up.

“I just think he knows with Draisaitl making what he’s making, and Nurse making what he’s making, he can’t go to a new stratosphere [with his next cap hit].”

Projections for McDavid’s next cap hit have ranged anywhere between $16 to $19 million. That would make him the highest-paid player in NHL history, beating out teammate Leon Draisaitl, who currently holds a $14 million cap hit.

Edmonton also has defenceman Evan Bouchard locked down to a $10.5 million cap hit for the next four seasons, and Darnell Nurse will carry a $9.25 million cap hit until the 2029-30 season. Though the cap is rising significantly in the next few years, having McDavid potentially knocking on the door of becoming the league’s first $20 million cap hit would hinder management.

The Oilers captain probably understands this and is considering that possibility. It could spell trouble for Edmonton as McDavid could certainly get more elsewhere, but Friedman pushed back on the notion of him leaving on Sportsnet 590 The Fan later on Monday.

“He likes that current group,” Friedman said of McDavid. “He’s loyal to Draisaitl, he’s loyal to Hyman, he’s loyal to Ekholm, he’s loyal to Nugent-Hopkins, he stood up for Nurse publicly when Nurse was taking a lot of heat in the market.

“I just don’t see him leaving those guys while the window is still open… I just don’t see him leaving that group, who he’s very loyal to.”

“I just don’t see him leaving that group, who he’s very loyal to.”@FriedgeHNIC shares his thoughts on Connor McDavid’s next contract with @Mattymar89 and @FutaMichael. #LetsGoOilers

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— Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) September 22, 2025

Oilers fans will be hoping that Friedman is right and that McDavid stays loyal to Edmonton. Until he signs his name on an extension, however, the situation will continue to be a distraction for the team.