The Japanese Yen stalls the overnight recovery from a two-week low against the USD.Domestic political uncertainty and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to build on the overnight bounce from a two-week low and extends its sideways consolidative price move against a mildly positive US Dollar (USD) through the early European session on Tuesday. Investors remain worried that domestic political uncertainty and economic headwinds stemming from US tariffs could give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) more reasons to delay raising borrowing costs. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment continues to undermine the safe-haven JPY.

Meanwhile, hawkish dissents to the BoJ’s on-hold decision last week could be a prelude to impending rate hikes. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled two more rate cuts by the end of this year. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlooks could limit the downside for the lower-yielding JPY. Moreover, the Fed’s dovish stance might keep a lid on the USD and the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech for short-term impetus later during the early North American session.

Japanese Yen traders seem reluctant amid mixed fundamental cuesA Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election will take place on 4 October, and the outcome could affect the likely timing of the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan if a candidate with dovish views is selected.Shinjiro Koizumi, seen as a frontrunner in the ruling party’s leadership race, said that the government must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline, but achieving solid economic growth is the basis for guiding sound fiscal policy.Separately, Japan’s Prime Minister contender, Yoshimasa Hayashi, said that the government must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending. Furthermore, Sanae Takaichi noted that the government should be mindful of the risk of causing yield rise in guiding fiscal policy.Wall Street indices have hit a series of record highs since last week, and the spillover effect leads to a further rise in Asian stocks. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Tuesday.There were two dissents to the BoJ’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda showed readiness to hike rates further if the economy and prices moved in line with forecasts.Investors are now pricing a greater chance of a 25 basis point BoJ rate hike in October amid signs of economic resilience. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook.The US central bank lowered borrowing costs last Wednesday for the first time since December and signaled that more interest rate cuts would follow through by the year-end amid signs of a softening labor market.Traders now believe that interest rates will drop much faster than the Fed is planning and are betting on the possibility that the short-term rate, currently in the 4.00%-4.25% range, will fall under 3% by the end of 2026.NATO countries have accused Russia of violating the airspace of alliance members Estonia, Poland, and Romania. Russia, however, rejected the claims and accused the European powers of levying baseless accusations.Despite recent diplomatic efforts to find ways to end the more than three-year war, fighting has intensified in recent months. In fact, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of deadly drone strikes on civilian areas on Monday.Hamas escalated its attacks and launched multiple rockets on Israel amid the intensifying attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces inside Gaza City. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and could benefit the safe-haven JPY.Traders now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech later during the North American session, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.In the meantime, the flash PMIs could offer some insight into the global economic health, which, in turn, would play a key role in driving the broader risk sentiment and demand for the traditional safe-haven JPY.The focus, however, would be on two key inflation figures from Japan’s capital city, Tokyo, and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due for release during the latter part of the week, on Friday.USD/JPY might struggle near 148.00; overnight high holds the key for bulls

The USD/JPY pair could find some support near last Friday’s post-BoJ swing low, around the 147.20 zone. This is followed by the 147.00 mark, below which spot prices could accelerate the fall towards the 146.20 horizontal support. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 145.50-145.45 region, or the lowest level since July 7, touched last Wednesday.

On the flip side, the 148.00 round figure could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 148.35-148.40 region, or a two-week high touched on Monday, and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 148.55 area. Some follow-through buying could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 149.00 mark en route to the monthly high, around the 149.15 area.

Economic Indicator

Fed’s Chair Powell speech

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

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Next release:
Tue Sep 23, 2025 16:35

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Federal Reserve