A steel welder in Hamilton. Canada’s GDP grew more than expected in July following three months of decline.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
The Canadian economy grew in July for the first time in four months and by slightly more than economists had forecasted.
Statistics Canada reported Friday that the 0.2-per-cent increase in real gross domestic product was largely driven by growth in good-producing industries. The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector led growth in July, expanding by 1.4 per cent.
Port of Vancouver handles record volumes as Canadian trade shifts toward Asia
The rebound in growth suggests the economy expanded in the third quarter following a 1.6-per-cent annualized contraction in the second quarter as U.S. tariffs battered key Canadian sectors.
“Growth in Canada’s tariff-impacted industries contributed most to July’s brighter-than expected print. Stabilization across these sectors underpins our view that GDP growth in the third quarter is set to recover modestly after last quarter’s trade-driven contraction,” wrote TD economist Marc Ercolao in a client note.
Auto manufacturing expanded, iron and steel declined as tariffs bite
Motor vehicle parts and motor vehicle manufacturing expanded by 10.5 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively in July, which coincided with an increase in exports of those goods that month, the report noted.
However, activity in iron and steel mills and ferro-alloy manufacturing was down by about 25-per-cent since February, before the U.S. imposed a 25-per-cent tariff on steel imports in March.
The industry group in July experienced its steepest decline since April 2020, contracting by 19.1 per cent after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled the tariff rate to 50 per cent in June.
How GDP figures might affect Bank of Canada interest rates
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said the economy is tracking for 0.8-per-cent annualized growth in the third quarter, which is stronger than previously expected but lower than the Bank of Canada’s forecast in July.
“We think that a further interest rate cut is still warranted, and continue to forecast a move at the October meeting, although upcoming employment and CPI data remain important to that call,” Mr. Grantham wrote in a client note.
The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last week for the first time in six months, in response to weakening economic conditions.
Governor Tiff Macklem offered no hints about where interest rates are headed next, despite an expectation amongst analysts that the central bank may have to cut once more this year to give the economy a boost.
The Bank of Canada’s key interest rate now stands at 2.5 per cent.