Our betting expert expects the visitors to win a competitive Madrid derby, with Kylian Mbappe extending his fine run in front of goal.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Predictions

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Derby joy for Los Blancos

The Madrid derby is almost always tight and evenly contested, with the draw often the value bet. However, the gulf in quality between the two teams is currently quite significant.

Atleti did perform better in midweek, but they’d really struggled to create opportunities until that point. Los Rojiblancos have created 1.1 xG or fewer in four of their seven competitive fixtures so far this term. They’ve won just two of those games, with their summer signings struggling to make much impact.

By contrast, the likes of Mastantuono, Dean Huijsen and Alvaro Carreras have settled quickly on the other side of the Spanish capital. The arrival of Alonso has also freshened things up, and they could be worth backing with an implied win probability of just 43.5% here.

Visitors to score at least twice

Real Madrid were slow to hit their stride in front of goal at the start of the campaign. That was unsurprising, given they barely had a pre-season following the Club World Cup. They’ve also been hampered by red cards in two of their four matches since the international break.

However, their attacking output is clearly increasing. After cruising past newly promoted opposition in midweek, they’ve scored 14 goals and created 13.5 xG in La Liga this term. In Europe’s big five leagues, only Barcelona and Bayern Munich have scored more, while nobody can match their xG tally.

Atletico Madrid have not been as solid defensively as we’re used to seeing from them under Diego Simeone. In their only game so far against elite-level opposition, they allowed 2.71 xG and seven big chances against Liverpool in the Champions League. If they defend like that again, they’ll surely be punished by their neighbours on Saturday afternoon.

Mbappe to continue his streak

Unquestionably, the main reason for Real Madrid’s impressive attacking numbers is Kylian Mbappe. The Frenchman is at the very top of his game right now, and has adapted well to everything Alonso has asked him to do.

He has averaged 1.21 goals per 90 minutes in La Liga this term, and is already leading the Pichichi race. Mbappe is also taking 5.84 shots per 90 minutes, and boasts a shot conversion rate of 15%.

The 26-year-old has only failed to score in one of his nine outings so far this season for club and country. He also delivered in the big games last term, scoring six goals in his seven matches against Atletico or Barcelona.

Our analysis: Form of both teams

These clubs started the campaign as the most likely challengers to defending champions Barcelona in the title race in Spain. However, there is already a significant nine-point gap between the Madrid rivals.

Atletico have made a poor start to the campaign. Having won only one of their opening five La Liga fixtures, they seemed to be on course for another huge setback in midweek. They were trailing 2-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano with 10 minutes to go, but were rescued by two late goals from hat-trick hero Julian Alvarez.

There have been no such problems for Real Madrid. Xabi Alonso’s side have won all seven competitive fixtures so far this term. They impressed in a 4-1 victory at Levante on Tuesday, with Franco Mastantuono scoring his first goal for the club.

Predicted lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Hancko, Lenglet, Le Normand, Llorente, Gallagher, Koke, Barrios, Simeone, Griezmann, Alvarez

Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Militao, Carvajal, Guler, Tchouameni, Valverde, Vinicius, Mbappe, Mastantuono

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