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“We’ll trust what we’ve built over last three years, and we’ll be looking to surprise Canada as they haven’t played us yet”. That was John Mitchell’s main reflection from his chat with the BBC just now.
A pointed comment, but not an unfair one. Canada have rightly had fabulous notices, but they haven’t faced the toughest test yet of England in their own stadium. Having said that, Mitchell hasn’t marshalled the best performances from his side and today is the moment he earns his salary.
“It’s remarkable in many ways that this is even a contest,” ventures David Howell, “because just on a financial support level it really, really shouldn’t be. And yet here we are, with the earlier-mentioned odds translating to almost a 30% chance of an upset.
“And calling this a 70-30 final does pass the sniff test; Canada have looked the better team over the tournament, but England have home advantage, long-term form, and perhaps most significantly strength in depth. It’ll take a lot for me to be surprised by this final, but the least surprising path of all in my mind would be for England to overcome an early deficit to win. Hopefully it’s as competitive as that implies!”
Updated at 10.24 EDT
As you wait for kick-off, I urge you to have a look at this remarkable picture essay from Tom Jenkins featuring the best shots from the tournament.
“Are England hot favourites?” asks Andy O’Shaughnessy.
Certainly according to the bookmakers, Andy. They have a Red Roses victory odds on across the boar at around 4/11, with a Canada win at about 12/5.
What is clear though is that the odds of an England win have been lengthening all week, even if it’s still expected. So they are cooler favourites than last week, and positively ice-aged compared to the start of the tournament.
The England players walk through the crowd at Twickenham as they arrive for the final. Photograph: Tom Jenkins/The GuardianShare
Updated at 10.19 EDT
Our man Rob Kitson has been considering who will win this match, and here he is chatting us through it.
New Zealand clinch the bronze
The curtain raising bronze final has finished at Twickenham, with the Black Ferns claiming victory 42-26 over France. There was a good turnout to watch the match and some emotions on show, especially from Portia Woodman-Wickliffe in her final appearance in the black jersey and the same from Marine Menager for Les Bleues.
New Zealand captain Ruahei Demant runs in a try on the way to beating France to take bronze. Photograph: Tom Jenkins/The GuardianShare
Updated at 09.54 EDT
So what are the things that will tip this match one way or the other?
Canada have an all-action, fast rucking and short carrying game that they alloy with nimble hands out wide. England were regularly caught on the outside by France in the semi and this Canadian style is tailor made to exploit a narrow defence. The Maple Leaf women also have an excellent kicking game, with plenty in the team who can hoof it, which is a point of difference in the women’s game.
England have a collection of replacements like no other team. It was notable how much the hammer came down on France in the second half last week after the Red Roses bench emptied. Also, while they may not be playing as brilliantly as previously, England still score a lot of points, which begs the obvious question can Canada score enough to overcome them? Experience would suggest opposition will need at least 35 points to be in with a chance. The Red Roses have a kicking game of their own as well, with Harrison and Hunt particularly good at hanging up contestable bombs for their incredible back three of Dow, Breach & Kildunne to chase.
And speaking of Ellie Kildunne… England have Ellie Kildunne.
Updated at 09.07 EDT
A sensible question from Anna Watson on email, “What time does it actually start please?”
It’s 4pm, UK time, Anna.
Who will be keeping the teams in line today?
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Assistant Referees: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa), Clara Munarini (Italy)
Television Match Official (TMO): Leo Colgan (Ireland)
Foul Play Review Officer (FPRO): Matteo Liperini (Italy)
Pre-match reading
Get in touch with all your thoughts and predictions, or maybe you’d like to share a humiliating school sport story so I’m not the only one. Whatever you choose, you can do it on the email
ShareTeams
It’s as you were for both squads, with John Mitchell and Kevin Rouet each retaining the same 23 from the semi-final victories.
England
Ellie Kildunne; Abby Dow, Megan Jones, Tatyana Heard, Jess Breach; Zoe Harrison, Natasha Hunt; Hannah Botterman, Amy Cokayne, Maud Muir; Morwenna Talling, Abbie Ward; Zoe Aldcroft, Sadia Kabeya, Alex Matthews
Replacements: Lark Atkin-Davies, Kelsey Clifford, Sarah Bern, Rosie Galligan, Maddie Feaunati, Lucy Packer, Holly Aitchison, Helena Rowland
Canada
Julia Schell; Alysha Corrigan, Florence Symonds, Alex Tessier, Asia Hogan-Rochester; Taylor Perry, Justine Pelletier; McKinley Hunt, Emily Tuttosi, DaLeaka Menin; Sophie de Goede (c), Courtney O’Donnell; Caroline Crossley, Karen Paquin, Fabiola Forteza
Replacements: Gillian Boag, Brittany Kassil, Olivia DeMerchant, Tyson Beukeboom, Laetitia Royer, Gabrielle Senft, Olivia Apps, Shoshanah Seumanutafa
SharePreamble
So here we are, the final of the Rugby World Cup 2025 as favourites from way back England face Canada, the second best team in the world.
Sequential rankings can be deceptive. For example, at the age of eleven I came fourth in a butterfly stroke swimming race at an interschools gala. Not bad on the face of it, but dig a little deeper and the truth is there were only four kids in the race, I hadn’t actually swam the stroke before, and I climbed out of the pool after one length of the designated two I was so far behind.
This is not to say that Canada are the land borne equivalent of my incompetent thrashing about in municipal chlorinated water, but there is a gulf to consider between the sides today; one that is reflective of the sport as a whole.
England have spent at least five years as the best team on the planet. This is no accident as they are well funded by their Union at international level, have a thriving domestic competition and a profile within the sport that cuts through to other fanbases. Canada meanwhile, despite their rare talent (they have always been far more than the erroneous “dark horses” moniker), had to crowdfund their appearance at the tournament. These relative places on the spectrum of women’s rugby sustainability and profile mirror their displays coming into this final.
Pressure makes diamonds, they say, but that’s usually nonsense in a non-geological context. In a human setting pressure creates anxiety, and England’s performances under the weight of expectation in their home tournament have become increasingly tight, albeit physically dominant. Canada have nothing to lose and are playing with a bruising freedom that raises pulses and smiles all round. This makes for a tantalising final.
But the Red Roses are not here to win friends, they want to win the trophy that for all their obvious brilliance has eluded them since 2014; to be the Best Team In The World™ without the asterisk. One more match to go.
Updated at 10.05 EDT