Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh and 9 more questions that will define the MLB postseason

Well, that was a hot mess of a regular season, wasn’t it?

Yes. And the wackiness should only continue in October, making the postseason even wilder.

In 2022, when Major League Baseball expanded the playoffs to 12 teams, its stated motivation was giving more teams a chance to play in October. But besides additional TV revenue, the league also craved an NCAA basketball tournament-style unpredictability. Turning Billy Beane’s “gauntlet of randomness” into an even more chaotic challenge.

The regular season is supposed to be the stable part of the baseball calendar. Over 162 games, the best teams generally prevail. But this season featured a whole lot of craziness. The New York Mets’ and Detroit Tigers’ collapses. The Houston Astros’ fall from grace. The Cincinnati Reds’ 83 wins, the fewest by a qualifier in the 12-team format. The Cleveland Guardians’ historic comeback from a 15 1/2-game deficit to win the AL Central.

So now, as the gauntlet of randomness begins, why should anyone expect things to be orderly? Beane also referred to the playoffs as “crapshoot,” and a crapshoot this will be. Many of the game’s best teams spent the regular season alternating between brilliant and horrible. Which versions show up in October is anyone’s guess.

Here are the questions that will define the postseason – we think.

Will Aaron Judge finally be Mr. October?

In last year’s version of this column, I wrote, “Barry Bonds faced the same ‘he can’t hit in the postseason’ narrative in the first part of his career. And wise baseball people said at the time, ‘Give a great player enough chances, and he’ll figure it out.’”

Judge is 33. This will be his eighth postseason. He has yet to figure it out.

In 262 career playoff plate appearances, the two-time MVP has batted .205 with a .768 OPS and 33 percent strikeout rate. The OPS isn’t embarrassing. But Judge in the regular season is a .294 career hitter with a 1.028 OPS and 27 percent strikeout rate.

So, here we go again. In Game 1 against the Boston Red Sox, Judge will face a pitcher, left-hander Garrett Crochet, against whom he is 3-for-15 with no walks and 11 strikeouts . . . albeit with two homers. In Game 2, he will face righty Brayan Bello, against whom he is 2-for-21 with six walks and no homers.

Postseason samples are small, best-of-three wild-card series samples are even smaller. But Judge in the past four years has produced three of the greatest seasons by a right-handed hitter in AL/NL history. He is the biggest reason the Yankees this season led the majors in runs and homers. Another postseason flop, and the noise around his October failures will only grow louder.

A monster performance and World Series title, on the other hand, would end the “can’t hit in the postseason” narrative surrounding Judge for good – just as they did for Bonds after his epic postseason in 2002.

What will two-way Shohei Ohtani look like?

Cue up another round of Babe Ruth comparisons. Pitching in the postseason is perhaps the final frontier for Shohei Ohtani. And it’s going to happen in these playoffs, unless Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers get swept by the Reds. Which seems . . . unlikely.

The Dodgers plan to start Ohtani in Game 3, if necessary, to ensure he gets a day off after he pitches (he also would get one if he started Game 1 of the Division Series). Ohtani pitched brilliantly in the regular season, producing a 2.87 ERA and 62-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 47 innings. The expected Blake Snell-Yoshinobu Yamamoto-Ohtani rotation is perhaps the biggest reason to believe the Dodgers can be the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the 1998 to 2000 Yankees.

The respective ERAs of Snell, Yamamoto and Ohtani in September: 2.25, 0.67 and 0.00, respectively.

Yes, the Dodgers’ bullpen remains a concern, but it won’t be the same bullpen we saw during the regular season. Tyler Glasnow, a starter signed to a $136 million contract, likely will work in relief, at least in the wild-card series. So will two other pitchers the Dodgers used mostly as starters, Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan. And, if the Dodgers advance, Clayton Kershaw.

Perhaps manager Dave Roberts will deploy one or more of those pitchers as late-inning options, given the shakiness of Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen and co. If the Dodgers’ starters are good enough, and their offense performs to its potential, the pressure on the ‘pen will reduce considerably.

As for Ohtani, well, good luck to him matching what Ruth did for the Red Sox in October more than a century ago. Ruth in the 1916 and ‘18 World Series allowed just three earned runs in 31 innings for a combined 0.87 ERA.

How real are the Brewers?

Fans who rarely see the Milwaukee Brewers continue to pose this question. They need to stop. The Brewers not only set a franchise record and led the majors with 97 wins, but also finished second in ERA, third in runs, third in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and eighth in Outs Above Average. Pretty complete team, no?

Yet, for as much attention as the Brewers received for their drive-opponents-to-distraction offense, pitching was perhaps the biggest reason for their success. And that pitching is not as strong as it was at mid-summer, when Brandon Woodruff was healthy, Jacob Misiorowski was ascendant and the team’s bullpen was in a healthier state.

The returns Sunday of All-Star closer Trevor Megill and left-hander DL Hall were encouraging – Megill had not pitched since Aug. 24 due to a right flexor strain, Hall since Aug. 15 due to a right oblique injury. If both can approach their previous form, the Brewers’ bullpen will be in that much better position. The next question is how effective and durable lefty José Quintana might be coming off a left calf strain that has sidelined him since Sept. 14.

Quintana is the potential Game 3 starter behind righties Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester. Misiorowski could piggyback with Quintana – if the Brewers include him on their roster. He made the NL All-Star team after only five major-league appearances. But in his last nine appearances, sandwiched around time missed with a left tibia contusion, his ERA is 5.89.

OK, so the picture isn’t ideal. For the Brewers it rarely is. They weathered the trade of closer Devin Williams and loss of shortstop Willy Adames to free agency. They navigated through a wave of pitching injuries at the start of the season. They even had losing records against their two possible Division Series opponents, the Chicago Cubs (6-7) and San Diego Padres (2-4).

If either of those clubs get hot, sure, the Brewers might be in trouble. And yes, in their last five postseason appearances, the Crew failed to win a series. But underestimate them at your own risk.

Can Cal Raleigh lead Seattle to its first World Series?

The Seattle Mariners are the only team never to play in the Series. Heck, they haven’t even reached the ALCS since 2001, when they won 116 games in the regular season, only to be bounced by the Yankees. Mariners manager Dan Wilson was the catcher for that team, Texas Rangers hitting coach Bret Boone the second baseman, former Reds manager David Bell the third baseman.

This Mariners team, arguably the most complete in the AL, need only get past the Guardians/Tigers winner to reach the ALCS. Their pitching, while statistically less dominant than it was the past three seasons, is still feared throughout the game. And their offense, bolstered by the emergence of right fielder Dominic Canzone and deadline additions of first baseman Josh Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suárez, finally includes enough quality parts to complement Raleigh and center fielder Julio Rodríguez.

The defense isn’t great. The Mariners ranked 28th in Outs Above Average, by far the worst among the playoff qualifiers, and 18th in Defensive Runs Saved, ahead of only the Reds among the playoff teams. Lack of contact is another concern.

The Mariners were sixth in strikeouts during the regular season and third among playoff teams, behind only the Yankees and Tigers. Suárez, left fielder Randy Arozarena and Raleigh all finished among the top 18 in strikeout rate. If the Mariners face Tarik Skubal twice, or a Guardians staff that ranked fourth in strikeout percentage in September, it could be a problem.

The Mariners, though, will have home-field advantage in that series, and it’s no small edge. They finished 51-30 at T-Mobile Park, including a 21-2 run before they were swept by the Dodgers in their final home series with nothing at stake. Sure, it’s easy to see Raleigh going, say, 1-for-14 with five strikeouts, the way he did in the 2022 Division Series against Houston. But it’s just as easy to envision him adding to his 60 regular-season homers, and capping his incredible campaign with even more magic.

Which injured players will make an impact?

Let’s start with players we won’t see.

In addition to outfielder Roman Anthony, the Red Sox will be without likely No. 3 starter Lucas Giolito for the wild-card series. Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is sidelined until 2026, and a number of other significant contributors will miss at least the start of the playoffs. Among them: Woodruff, Cubs righty Cade Horton and Padres left fielder Ramón Laureano.

The chances of several postseason qualifiers, meanwhile, might hinge on how successfully some of their stars return from injuries.

A partial list:

Trea Turner, Phillies: After missing 20 days with a strained right hamstring, Turner played five innings in the team’s regular-season finale on Sunday and pronounced himself ready for the Division Series. He is integral to the Phillies, their first batting champion since 1958, and a dramatically improved defender at shortstop.

Kyle Tucker, Cubs: Like Turner, he missed most of September, only with a left calf strain. Tucker appeared as a DH in the Cubs’ final series, going 1-for-11 against the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s doubtful, after a month-long layoff, that he will return to right field in the wild-card round. Regardless, the Cubs need the Tucker who produced a .931 OPS through June 30, not the one with a .690 OPS since.

Will Smith, Dodgers: He hasn’t played since Sept. 9 due to a hairline fracture in his right hand, but threw and took live batting practice during the Dodgers’ workout Monday. As The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reported, the Dodgers might carry three catchers if Smith appears ready. They need him. Smith’s .901 OPS was his best in a full season, and his primary replacement, Ben Rortvedt, is a .190 career hitter.

Bo Bichette, Blue Jays: Perhaps the biggest benefit of the Jays earning a first-round bye was the additional time it gave Bichette to recover from his left knee sprain. Bichette, sidelined since Sept. 6, has yet to start running. Without him, the Jays have used Andrés Giménez at short and alternated Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement at second, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa coming off the bench.

Bryan Woo, Mariners: Woo hasn’t pitched since leaving his Sept. 19 start in Houston with right pectoral inflammation, but the Mariners anticipate he will start in the Division Series. They intend to carry all five of their starting pitchers on their roster, which means Bryce Miller and one of Luis Castillo, George Kirby or Logan Gilbert will be in the bullpen.

Who will be this year’s Cinderella?

To qualify for this conversation, a team must be a fifth or sixth seed. And as tempting as it is to pick the Guardians to reach the World Series on a balk, swinging bunt or some other trademark “GuardsBall” insanity, the Padres are a better choice – in part because they’re an especially potent No. 5 seed.

There are plenty of reasons not to like the Padres against the Cubs. Their 38-43 away record. The absence of Laureano. An offense that, for all its weapons, ranked only 18th in runs and 19th in OPS against lefties – a problem, considering the Cubs are likely to start lefties Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga in the first two games.

The Padres’ rotation beyond Game 1 starter Nick Pivetta also is questionable, but man, that bullpen. Manager Mike Shildt rode it hard, but he stole four days of rest for both Robert Suarez and Mason Miller in the final week. Even without Jason Adam, the Padres’ relievers are absurdly good. Their .619 opponents’ OPS was the best in the majors, with the Red Sox next at .652.

One more thought: It’s easy to discount the Tigers, who went 3-13 in their final 16 games, including 1-5 against the Guardians. But the 2023 Texas Rangers are just one example of how late regular-season performance does not necessarily indicate postseason success. The ‘23 Rangers went 8-8 in their final 16 games, dropped three of their last four in Seattle to blow the AL West title – and then flew cross-country to Tampa Bay and began their run to their first World Series title.

Will the Shapiro-Atkins Blue Jays finally win a round?

Oh, the Jays won a Division Series in 2016, their first year under team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins. That team, however, was comprised mostly of players acquired by the previous GM, Alex Anthopoulos.

Since then, the Jays are 0-6 in the wild-card round, getting swept in 2020, ‘22 and ‘23. They at least avoided another best-of-three after finishing with the best record in the AL and securing a bye into the DS. But after winning 94 games, their most since their World Series triumphs in 1992 and ‘93, anything less than an appearance in the ALCS would be a disappointment.

The Jays obviously need Bichette for their offense to be at full strength. They also must figure out what to do with their rotation beyond right-handers Shane Bieber and Kevin Gausman, in whatever order they pitch.

Would they entrust a start to righty Chris Bassitt, who has not pitched since Sept. 18 due to lower back inflammation? How about righty Max Scherzer, who has allowed 25 runs in his last 25 innings? Or, would they turn to rookie righty Trey Yesavage, who also could play a valuable role in the bullpen?

That bullpen, a work in progress for much of the season, was better down the stretch, producing the league’s ninth-best opponents’ OPS in September – and that includes catcher Tyler Heineman’s 10-run relief appearance in Kansas City.

Lefties Eric Lauer, Mason Fluharty and Brendon Little could play critical roles against either the Yankees or Red Sox. But closer Jeff Hoffman, who allowed 15 homers, the second-most among relievers, remains a major question. While he had an 0.84 ERA in September, his results were perhaps misleading. He walked seven in 10 2/3 innings and his velocity was down.

How much is on the line for the Phillies?

Phillies owner John Middleton made no secret of his anger last year after his team’s upset loss to the Mets in the Division Series. In early November, during an interview with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, he still sounded frustrated, saying, “I don’t think you can forget the postseason. I don’t think you can forget the last couple of months of marginal play.” Amid his dissatisfaction, he talked about the need for change.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski didn’t change much in the offseason. His trade for left-hander Jesús Luzardo was a success. But he barely touched the offense, and his three free-agent signings – outfielder Max Kepler and pitchers Jordan Romano and Joe Ross – combined for a negative fWAR.

Dombrowski’s deadline additions – David Robertson as a free agent, closer Jhoan Duran and center fielder Harrison Bader in trades – were much more impactful. But now, after winning 96 games, their most since 2011, the Phillies face another crossroads.

This isn’t a last stand. The Phillies are likely to re-sign their biggest potential free agent, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, and perhaps catcher J.T. Realmuto, too. But how will Middleton react if the team again flames out early? Even without Wheeler, a case can be made for the Phillies as the best team in the National League.

A Division Series matchup against the Dodgers would be a battle of titans. Yet, if the Phillies lost, it would be difficult to imagine Middleton remaining passive. Could mean trouble for manager Rob Thomson. Could mean major changes to the roster. Could mean a lot of things.

Might we see an all-Ohio World Series?

Since the inception of divisional play in 1969, Cleveland and Cincinnati have only been in the same postseason twice, not including 2020 when Major League Baseball expanded the postseason to 16 teams after the pandemic-shortened regular season.

In 1995, Cleveland lost in the World Series while Cincinnati was swept in the NLCS. In 2013, both teams lost the wild-card game.

This year, it’s possible both clubs will get bounced early, but give ‘em credit for even qualifying. The Reds rank 19th in payroll, the Guardians 26th. (The Brewers, at No. 17, also are in the bottom half.)

So, can either of the Ohio teams win a series? Why not?

The Reds at least stand a puncher’s chance of upsetting the Dodgers, mostly because of their starting rotation. At their best, righty Hunter Greene and lefties Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott, are not far off the Dodgers’ top three. (Zack Littell will start Game 2 with Lodolo piggybacking.) Two other one-time starters – Chase Burns and Nick Martinez – figure to join a heavily used bullpen. And since returning to the majors on Aug. 18, righty reliever Connor Phillips has held opponents to a .416 OPS.

The problem for the Reds is the same one they had in their last postseason appearance in 2020, when they failed to score while getting swept by the Atlanta Braves in the wild-card round. Their offense is inconsistent, and ranked 25th in OPS against left-handed pitching. In addition to Snell, their Game 1 starter, the Dodgers figure to carry five lefties in their ‘pen. The Reds, besides Lodolo, have only one, Brent Suter.

The Guardians, bless their plucky hearts, are even worse offensively, ranking 28th in runs and 29th with a .296 on-base percentage. Starting pitching fueled their remarkable 19-4 march to the end of the regular season, and the law of averages alone might compromise their chances against the Tigers, even though they will be at home.

Then again, the law of averages means little for a team that got a two-run homer in its postseason clincher from a cleanup man, Johnathan Rodriguez, with 97 career at-bats – and won that game when another rookie, C.J., Kayfus, was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded.

Which matchups hold most appeal?

We’ve got a doozy right away…

Yankees-Red Sox: A best-of-three won’t make for nearly as much fun as the classic ALCS showdowns in 2003 and ‘04, but the rivalry rarely disappoints. The Red Sox are 9-4 against the Yankees this season. They eliminated the Yankees in their last two postseason meetings, the 2018 Division Series and the 2021 wild-card game. But the Yankees are at home, and for the Red Sox the absences of Anthony and Giolito will make this series even more of an uphill fight.

And looking ahead…

Cubs-Brewers (potential NLDS): Like Yankees-Red Sox, this is both a divisional and geographic rivalry. The difference is, the teams have never met in the playoffs, coming closest in 2018 when the Brewers won a Game 163 tiebreaker. That NL Central title marked the first of five for the Brewers since 2017, the last time the Cubs won the division over a full season. The last two of those division championships have come since manager Craig Counsell bolted his hometown of Milwaukee for Chicago.

Padres-Dodgers (potential NLCS): As good as Red Sox-Yankees is, Padres-Dodgers currently is the most heated rivalry in the sport. The teams met three times in the Division Series in the past five years, the Dodgers winning in 2020 and ‘24, the Padres in 2022. And back in June, managers Dave Roberts and Mike Shildt engaged in an angry confrontation during a bench-clearing incident after the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. was hit by a pitch. A best-of-seven NLCS would be epic.

Who will win the World Series?

You’re asking me? My Series picks were Texas and Atlanta!

I’m not going to predict anything. I’m just going to enjoy watching the unpredictable unfold.