MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
German manufacturing orders; trading updates for Shell, Imperial Brands
Opening Call:
European stock futures were mixed, as well as Asia stocks. The yield on U.S. Treasurys were flat, the dollar held steady. Gold and oil rose.
Equities:
European futures were mixed as the U.S. federal government shutdown stretches into its second week, delaying the release of key economic data, including September’s jobs report. A prolonged shutdown, as expected by traders in prediction markets, may compel the Federal Reserve to make its interest-rate decision in October with limited information.
Traders have priced in two more rate reductions for the rest of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In the short term, lower rates boost the appeal of gold, which pays no interest compared with safe government bonds.
“It’s become a bit of a momentum trade,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and chief investment officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors. “When you come out of a Fed tightening cycle, gold would rally, and we are clearly coming out of it now.”
Forex:
The U.S. dollar held steady, after Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said that the central bank’s rate policy is only slightly restrictive and that is the right place to be for now.
Schmid views the current level of inflation as too high, contending that the central bank shouldn’t lose sight of its goal to bring price growth back to the 2% target.
“My view is that the Fed must maintain its credibility on inflation,” Schmid said in prepared remarks to the CFA Society Kansas City.
“History has shown that while all inflations are universally disliked, not all inflations are equally costly to fight. Inflation driven by imbalances between supply and demand, such as during the pandemic, can be brought down without a large increase in unemployment or a recession.”
Bonds:
U.S. Treasury yields were flat after rising to start the week, in which relevant statistics are likely to be missed because of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown–with some analysts bracing for weeks of stalemate in Washington.
Meanwhile, the Treasury is expected to hold tenders for three-year notes, followed by a 10-year auction on Wednesday and 30-year Thursday.
Bank of America says recent declines in foreign official holdings have been offset by bank demand. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic and Governor Miran both speak tomorrow. Markets keep pricing a 25-basis-point cut later this month.
Energy:
Oil prices were overall highter, but may be supported by supply disruption risks.
“Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery over the weekend highlights ongoing disruption risks facing Russian supply,” saud CBA’s Vivek Dhar in a research report.
These attacks began in August and have already led to lower shipments of Russian refined products, the analyst said.
The net impact of the Ukrainian attacks is less oil and refined oil products for the global market, the analyst added.
Metals:
Gold rose, amid a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for “hard” assets, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.
“Gold’s breakout above yet another round handle is simply fuelling the bullish momentum given the lack of any major selling activity,” the analyst said.
Gold could test next major level of $4,000/oz, with $3,900/oz broken, Razaqzada added.
–
Copper edged higher amid continued concerns over tight supply, ANZ research analysts said.
The sector has seen a number of disruptions to major operations in Indonesia and Chile in recent months, they said, noting that all the workers who went missing after an accident at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine last month were confirmed dead.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Kansas Fed President Schmid Says Rates Are Where They Should Be
At least one Federal Reserve policymaker doesn’t see a dire need for lower rates amid rising inflation. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Monday that the central bank’s rate policy is only slightly restrictive and that is the right place to be for now.
Schmid views the current level of inflation as too high, contending that the central bank shouldn’t lose sight of its goal to bring price growth back to the 2% target.
Gold Price Nears $4,000. Why It’s Soaring-and How It Can Keep Going.
Gold prices powered to within touching distance of the $4000 mark in Monday trading as investors piled cash into bullion amid a wave of political turmoil in three major global economies.
France’s newly formed government, led by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, collapsed within hours of its creation of a new cabinet, setting up the likelihood of new national elections that could ultimately bring down President Emmanuel Macron.
Macron’s Latest Prime Minister Resigns After a Month in Office
PARIS-French President Emmanuel Macron has lost his fourth prime minister in just over a year, a sign of how the country’s political crisis has engulfed his ranks and constrained his options for pulling France out of a fiscal spiral.
On Monday, Sébastien Lecornu stunned the country by resigning as prime minister, a month into the job and one day after he named ministers to his cabinet. Lecornu’s benighted tenure-the shortest in the history of France’s modern Fifth Republic-is a measure of how a political system that was once a cornerstone of stability in Europe has fallen into disarray.
Big Banks Woo Trump for Roles on Blockbuster IPO
Goldman Sachs Chief David Solomon was at the White House this summer pitching President Trump on why his bank should lead a huge coming deal: the initial public offering of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Midway through the presentation, Trump invited in a group of athletes from his council on sports and fitness. Solomon continued speaking as former professional wrestler Paul “Triple H” Levesque and golfer Bryson DeChambeau looked on.
How AMD Came From Behind to Mount a Challenge in the AI Chip Wars
When Lisa Su took over as chief executive of chip company Advanced Micro Devices in 2014, the company’s market value was just under $3 billion.
Today, it is worth more than $330 billion, a more-than-hundredfold increase that reflects how deftly AMD has pivoted from a strategy of mainly producing graphics cards for gaming and personal-computer processors to more tightly focusing on the data-center chips that power the artificial-intelligence revolution.
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Expected Major Events for Tuesday
04:30/NED: Sep CPI
06:00/GER: Aug Manufacturing orders
06:00/GER: Aug Manufacturing turnover
06:00/FIN: Aug Foreign trade
06:00/NOR: Aug Industrial Production Index
06:00/UK: Sep Halifax House Price Index
06:00/UK: 3Q Halifax House Price Index: UK Regional Breakdown quarterly release
06:30/HUN: Aug Preliminary Industrial Production
06:45/FRA: Aug Foreign trade
06:45/FRA: Aug Balance of payments
07:00/AUT: Sep Wholesale Price Index
07:00/SWI: Sep SNB foreign currency reserves
07:00/CZE: Aug Industry, Construction
07:00/CZE: Aug External trade
08:00/ICE: Sep External trade, preliminary figures
09:00/EU: 2Q Quarterly sectoral accounts
09:00/EU: 2Q Quarterly Balance of Payments
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 07, 2025 00:14 ET (04:14 GMT)
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