There’s little to no light at the end of the tunnel as Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza entered its third year Tuesday, with nearly 67,200 Palestinians killed, most of the coastal enclave turned to rubble.
Two years after Hamas’ incursion ignited the war, the resistance group is weakened but not defeated, Israel is far from achieving any of its so-called key goals and no one knows how it all will end.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, a genocidal Israel has raised one of the most deadly and devastating military campaigns since World War II, leaving tens of thousands of Palestinians dead, flattening vast areas of the blockaded territory and triggering a famine in parts.
It sent ripples across the region, bringing Israel into combat with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, as well as armed groups in Iraq and Syria, and their patron, Iran, which suffered major losses in a 12-day war launched by Israel earlier this year.
Through it all, Hamas has held onto hostages – it still has 48, around 20 of whom Israel believes are alive – and maintained influence in the dwindling areas of Gaza that haven’t been totally destroyed and depopulated.
A new round of cease-fire talks began this week based on a peace plan advanced by U.S. President Donald Trump. But so far, two U.S. administrations have failed to end the fighting while providing crucial support for an increasingly isolated and internally divided Israel.
Israel has inflicted major damage on Iran and its allies, with full control over most of Gaza and parts of Lebanon and Syria. But its seemingly tactical victories have come at an enormous cost.
It is more isolated internationally than it has been in decades, with experts, scholars and major rights groups accusing it of genocide. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister, accusing them of using starvation as a method of warfare. Normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries appears increasingly remote.
The failure to return the hostages, on top of long-standing corruption allegations against Netanyahu and his efforts to overhaul Israel’s judiciary, has left the country furiously divided, with weekly mass protests and discontent mounting as Israel wages another major offensive in Gaza.
Hamas has said the Oct. 7 incursion, which caused 1,200 deaths and took 251 hostages, was partly aimed at returning the Palestinian cause to the world’s agenda. It did manage to do that.
As the ensuing war has dragged on, major Western countries have joined a majority of U.N. members in recognizing a Palestinian state. The International Court of Justice has said Israel’s control over East Jerusalem, the occupied West Bank and Gaza, territories it seized in the 1967 Mideast war, is an illegal occupation that must end.
But on the ground, Israel has further cemented its rule over all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, further dashing any hopes for Palestinian independence.
The offensive in Gaza has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and displaced 90% of the population of some 2 million, often multiple times. Israel controls around 75% of the territory, and entire cities and towns are in ruins. Most Palestinians have seen their homes destroyed, children have missed two years of school, and parts of Gaza have plunged into famine. Whenever the war does end, it will take years, if not generations, for Gaza to recover.
In the occupied West Bank, Israel has carried out major military operations that it says are aimed at rooting out resistance groups, displacing tens of thousands. And it is rapidly expanding illegal Jewish settlements, including a major project that would split the territory in half and is aimed at making it all but impossible to create a viable Palestinian state.
In addition to the hostages, Hamas has a vastly diminished but still potent force capable of sporadic attacks. It could still claim an incredibly costly victory if it trades the hostages for a full Israeli withdrawal and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has held onto power by meeting the demands of his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.
Earlier this January, there was some hope that the war might end.
Donald Trump’s incoming team had pushed a cease-fire agreement over the finish line after months of negotiations mediated by President Joe Biden’s administration, Egypt and Qatar. The phased plan was designed to wind down the war and return the remaining hostages.
In March, Israel imposed a total blockade on Gaza that would last for 2 1/2 months and ended the truce with a surprise bombardment. It faced no public pushback from Trump, who a month earlier had floated the idea of depopulating Gaza and turning it into a tourist destination.
Under both Biden and Trump, the U.S. has provided billions of dollars in military aid while shielding Israel from international calls for a cease-fire and defending it against allegations of atrocities.
Unwavering U.S. support has allowed Netanyahu to pursue “total victory” over Hamas despite the humanitarian catastrophe. U.S. proposals to end the fighting have strongly favored Israel and Hamas has refused to give in despite its staggering losses.
The latest peace plan from the White House calls on Hamas to immediately release all the remaining hostages, give up power and disarm. In return, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and withdraw from much of Gaza.
The U.S. would guarantee an influx of humanitarian aid and eventual reconstruction, and plans to relocate much of Gaza’s population to other countries would be shelved.
Gaza would be placed under international governance without a clear path to reunification with the West Bank in a future Palestinian state.
Hamas has said it is willing to release the hostages and hand over power to other Palestinians, but that other aspects of the plan require further negotiation. Trump and Netanyahu want a quick deal, and Israel could once again escalate the war if talks drag on.
Even if the fighting can be brought to an end, it’s unclear when – or even if – Gaza can be rebuilt, and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which predates the war by decades, would remain volatile as ever.