There is a hilarious detail in today’s reporting on the fact that the Trump administration’s review of the AUKUS submarine is still unfinished, despite an initial deadline of 30 days set way back in June.
In confirming that the review is still ongoing, John Noh, the nominee to be the Pentagon’s senior official for the Indo-Pacific region, “noted” that both Australia and the United Kingdom had conducted reviews into the agreement.
Sure, the UK has, but not only has Australia remained so slavishly committed to the deal that we’ve not conducted a review at all, but the US hasn’t been sufficiently fussed about the process to find out either way.
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Roger Wicker, the Republican chairman of the Senate committee, demonstrated a slightly better grasp of the Australian mood, saying the US review had come “as a distressing surprise to our steadfast ally, Australia”.
Indeed, you can cast your eyes over the following details of the process and perhaps detect a fairly consistent dynamic:
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September 2021: The tone is set before the AUKUS program is officially launched, with the Nine papers teasing an impending “major announcement” and breathlessly reporting on cabinet ministers rushing back to Canberra. The announcement barely seems to register in the US press, and is mainly notable for then US president Joe Biden forgetting then prime minister Scott Morrison’s name, thanking “that fella from Down Under”.
Almost instantly, it is revealed Morrison had pre-emptively caved on local construction, dropping previous requirements that 60% of the submarines be built in Australia to 40%.
Over the complaints of former leader Paul Keating (who argued AUKUS represented “a further dramatic loss of Australian sovereignty, as material dependency on the US robbed Australia of any freedom or choice in any engagement Australia may deem appropriate”), the ALP confirms it will stick with AUKUS if elected in May 2022.
October 2021: Of course, it is Morrison’s reneging on the previous agreement to build submarines with the French that makes ScoMo’s reputation as a habitual liar generally accepted, rather than just something those malcontents at Crikey cared about. In that context, Biden hangs Australia out to dry, claiming that he was “under the impression that France had been informed”. Oh shit, you didn’t know about my birthday? I could’ve sworn you were in that group chat…
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February 2023: Responding to Keating and fellow former PM Malcolm Turnbull, Defence Minister Richard Marles is forced to argue in parliament that, actually, AUKUS will increase Australia’s sovereignty, not diminish it.
July 2024: Biden announces that he will not be seeking a second term. Again, perhaps as a sign of the priority he placed on the comfort of Australian political leaders, he blithely reveals that the AUKUS partners have struck a revamped version of the deal wherein the US has secured unspecified “political commitments” from the Albanese government.
February 2025: Newly reelected US President Donald Trump is asked about AUKUS and has to be reminded what the program is.
April 2025: The newly elected Labour government in the UK launches an AUKUS parliamentary inquiry.
June 2025: In June, Trump’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby tells The Nightly: “AUKUS is only going to lead to more submarines collectively in 10, 15, 20 years, which is way beyond the window of maximum danger, which is really in this decade. So the benefits are questionable and the viability is also questionable.”
This is the guy that Trump appointed to review the AUKUS deal. He sets a deadline of 30 days.
Committed to not taking the hint, Defence Minister Richard Marles responds: “Our engagement with the Trump administration and across the full political spectrum in the United States has shown clear and consistent support for AUKUS.
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“We look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the Trump administration on this historic project.”
July 2025: Colby announces that the deadline will not be met. Asked if this is cause for concern, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese insists: “No, it’s not surprising that that would be the case and it’s something we expected, something like that.
“We expected a review from an incoming government, just like the Keir Starmer government did. We expect that those things take longer than just 30 days.”
September-October 2025: Albanese, during his visit to the US, is unable to secure a proper meeting with Trump, reduced to collaring the president for a selfie. It is at last confirmed that, on October 20, the pair will meet.
Is it time for Australia to ditch its desperation for AUKUS?
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