The Italian top flight is currently producing fewer goals than any of Europe’s other big five leagues, with defences very much on top.
Serie A MarketsOddsPisa vs Verona – BTTS – No1.804Roma vs Inter – Under 2.5 Goals1.832Genoa vs Parma – Under 1.5 Goals2.53
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why have the goals dried up in Serie A?
Historically, Serie A was known as a defensive league, featuring some of the meanest backlines in football. However, there was a period when things seemed to open up.
As recently as the 2020/21 season, Serie A averaged 3.06 goals per game, with Inter, Atalanta, and Napoli all scoring over 85 times. That year’s average was the highest among the big five European leagues.
However, there has been a clear reversal of that trend in recent years. Last season, there were only 2.56 goals per match in Serie A, while it’s down to 2.38 this term. That’s lower than the respective averages in the English, German, French and Spanish top flights.
Of the 12 teams with the lowest xG tallies in Europe’s big five leagues, seven of them are Italian. Meanwhile, eight of the 12 clubs with the fewest xGA (expected goals allowed) are also from Serie A. There are 23 teams in the other leagues who have worse xGA tallies than Cagliari, the lowest-performing Italian side according to that metric.
The regular departure of attacking talents to other countries may finally be taking its toll. Mateo Retegui top scored in Serie A last term with 25 goals for Atalanta, but has since moved to the Saudi Pro League. Victor Osimhen is another free-scoring star to have departed Italy in recent years.
Is the low-scoring trend worth backing?
With a number of more cautiously-minded bosses now in the Italian top flight, this low-scoring trend seems set to continue. That should serve up betting opportunities in certain games when Serie A returns from the international break.
Genoa’s clash with Parma is almost guaranteed to be a tight affair. Each side has only managed to score three times so far, leaving them among the five lowest-scoring teams in Europe’s big five leagues. Both also rank in the bottom 10 for xG.
However, defensively, there are more encouraging signs in both camps. Only seven clubs across Europe’s major leagues have allowed fewer xG than the 5.6 of Parma. Despite their overall struggles, Patrick Vieira’s Genoa have also only allowed an xG of 7.1.
Meanwhile, there seems to be value in backing at least one team to fail to score in the meeting of Pisa and Verona. You can do that with an implied probability of 54.6%.
Verona are the lowest scorers of the 96 teams in Europe’s major leagues, with only two goals. They’ve struggled to convert chances, while Pisa have found it hard to create them, with an xG tally of just 4.8.
The heavyweight clash between Roma and Inter may also be a cautious affair. The side from the capital currently boast the meanest defensive record in Serie A, with only two goals conceded in six matches. Meanwhile, Inter’s tally of 4.4 xGA is the best.
You can back two or fewer goals when the sides meet at the Stadio Olimpico with an implied probability of 57.8%. That has been a winning bet in five of Roma’s six matches so far this term.