As William Shakespeare one wrote, “Some rise, and some by virtue fall.” Luckily for Paul Mescal, he’s a man on the rise.
Just days after announcing he’d be campaigning in Best Supporting Actor for Hamnet, the Irish actor has jumped up to third place in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds.
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Mescal now has an 89 percent chance of being nominated, just behind Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) and Sean Penn (One Battle After Another). The predicted list of five nominees is rounded out by Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere).
Best Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Stellan Skarsgard
Stellan Skarsgard
Sentimental Value
95.7%
2.
Sean Penn
Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
94.9%
3.
Paul Mescal
Paul Mescal
Hamnet
89.6%
4.
Adam Sandler
Adam Sandler
Jay Kelly
66.4%
5.
Jeremy Strong
Jeremy Strong
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
57.4%
Hamnet is Chloé Zhao’s heartwrenching film based on Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, which chronicles the love story between Mescal’s William Shakespeare and Jessie Buckley’s Agnes Hathaway. Mescal being submitted in the supporting race reflects the film’s narrative, which centers the story around Agnes as she copes with a tragedy at home following the death of their titular son. William, meanwhile, deals with his grief by escaping to London to write the infamous play Hamlet, a subplot that was not shown on-screen.
Mescal earned a Best Actor Oscar nomination for his role in Aftersun (2023), but this would be his first bid for Best Supporting Actor. Conversely, Buckley was previously cited in Best Supporting Actress for The Lost Daughter (2021), and is now looking strong to receive her first Best Actress nod — in fact, she’s No. 1 in the Gold Derby odds with a 98 percent chance to land a nomination.
Best Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Jessie Buckley
Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
97.7%
2.
Renate Reinsve
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
95.4%
3.
Cynthia Erivo
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked: For Good
80.2%
4.
Emma Stone
Emma Stone
Bugonia
72.0%
5.
Rose Byrne
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
53.5%
Besides acting, the Focus Features film ranks high in nine other Oscar categories: Best Picture (second place), Best Director (second place), Best Adapted Screenplay (second place), Best Casting (third place), Best Cinematography (first place), Best Costume Design (third place), Best Film Editing (third place), Best Production Design (fourth place), and Best Score (third place).
Last week at the first Los Angeles screening of Hamnet, Buckley joked that Mescal was a “pain in the arse” to work with. She then confessed, “No, I love that man!” Buckley added, “I’ve been very lucky to work with great partners in my life, but I think he might be the best.” She then whispered, “Don’t tell the others.”
Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal in ‘Hamnet’Focus Features
Among Gold Derby’s 31 Oscar experts from major media outlets, 25 are now predicting Mescal will receive a Best Supporting Actor nomination. Keith Simanton (IMDb) even predicts Mescal will win the statuette.
Had Mescal competed up in the Best Actor race, he would have faced off against contenders like Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), and Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone).
After premiering at the Telluride Film Festival, Hamnet will begin its theatrical run in the United States with a limited release on Nov. 27. It will then expand nationwide on Dec. 12. The 2026 Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 22.
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