The Toronto Blue Jays are four wins away from a return to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.

A lot has changed over the last three decades.

If the Blue Jays deliver as the betting favourite to win Game 1 of the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners tonight at FanDuel, the vibes around this team are going to start to feel a lot like they did back in 1993.

Toronto is coming off its first playoff series win since 2016.

More importantly, the Blue Jays pounded the AL East rival New York Yankees for 34 runs in four games in the ALDS.

For perspective, the Yankees had 34 hits in that series.

An explosive offence and a pitching staff that more than held its own versus New York in the ALDS has baseball fans reminiscing about Joe Carter’s home run and whether this year’s team has what it takes to win it all.

First up, the Blue Jays are a significant favourite to win their series opener at -162 at FanDuel.

That number suggests a 61.83 per cent implied probability.

The team that nobody expected to even be here back in April is now the ALCS favourite and the second choice to win the World Series behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Let’s take a closer look at the numbers you need to know for Game 1 of the ALCS in this special edition of Morning Coffee for Sunday, October 12th, 2025.

Setting The Stage For Blue Jays’ Return To ALCS

Nobody expected the Blue Jays to reach the ALCS.

At least, that was the case on MLB Opening Day, when the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, and Chicago White Sox were the only American League teams with longer odds to make the playoffs than Toronto.

The Blue Jays were expected to be an afterthought in a stacked AL East division.

After treading below .500 for the first few weeks of the regular season, something clicked in Toronto in late May.

At the time, the Blue Jays had lost four of five games and were two games below .500 with a 26-28 record.

Toronto could be found as high as 100-to-1 to win the AL East division title at FanDuel.

They never looked back after that.

The Blue Jays went 68-40 the rest of the way and finished with a 94-68 record to clinch the AL East title.

Despite their remarkable regular season run, Toronto still had longer odds to win the World Series than teams like the Yankees by the time their ALDS rolled around.

The Blue Jays proved all their doubters wrong with a dominant performance in which they outscored the Yankees a combined 23-8 at home in the first two games of the series.

After nearly pulling off the sweep on the road in Game 3, Toronto cruised to a 5-2 win over New York in Game 4.

Now they’re set to face a Mariners side that had a much tougher journey to the ALCS.

Seattle went the distance with the Detroit Tigers in their ALDS, prevailing in a 3-2 win in a decisive Game 5 that went 15 innings.

The Mariners scored more than three runs only once in that series – an 8-4 win in Game 3 in Detroit.

They scored exactly two or three runs in each of their other four games, with two of them going to extras.

If a Blue Jays staff led by Kevin Gausman can build on its strong start to the postseason, it will give the Blue Jays a significant edge in this series.

Toronto is -128 to win the ALCS at FanDuel.

The Blue Jays are -164 to win Game 1 at home.

Gausman’s strikeout prop is currently over/under 5.5 at FanDuel and it’s juiced to the over at -122.

Gausman to throw six or more strikeouts and Toronto to win is +144 at FanDuel.

Gausman to record more than 16.5 outs is -114.

As for the Blue Jays offence, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Vladdy Guerrero Jr. has the shortest odds to hit a home run of any player in their lineup.

Guerrero hit .529 with three home runs and nine RBI against the Yankees in the ALDS.

While we likely won’t see that type of ridiculous production again in a much tougher match-up versus the Mariners, Guerrero is +300 to hit a home run and +125 to hit an RBI in Game 1.

Addison Barger is +150 to record an RBI.

Daulton Varsho is +155 to record an RBI.

One theme heading into their series with the Yankees was the weight of expectations the Blue Jays would have to overcome after they reached the ALDS.

Toronto thrived in the spotlight.

I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Vladdy to record a hit and the Blue Jays to win as a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 1 of the ALCS at -108.

Hopefully, the momentum of a dominant series win will carry over tonight and propel them to a win in Game 1.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families!