So, can the SNP win a majority next year?published at 16:19 BST
16:19 BST
Glenn Campbell
BBC Scotland Political Editor
Independence is back – not that it is ever far from mind
for the party that exists to bring it about.
On Saturday, SNP members backed John Swinney’s plan to declare a mandate for a second independence referendum if the party wins a majority of seats in next year’s Holyrood election.
But can this be achieved by an SNP that opinion polls
suggest is far less popular than it was in 2021, never mind at the heights of
its Holyrood majority in 2011?
A potential pathway is opened up by a more fragmented
unionist opposition, with the emergent Reform UK drawing support away from
other parties, not least the Conservatives and Labour.
Even if the SNP only has a 35% vote share in any given
constituency, that could well be enough to win if the other 65% is split
multiple ways.
However, to increase the chances of SNP success, the party
is seeking to rebuild the broader coalition of independence-supporting voters
it has attracted in the past.
That is why you will hear the independence argument
threaded through the SNP’s election campaign.
The SNP’s political opponents – including the
Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – see talk of independence as a
distraction from the day-to-day business of delivery on health, education and
law and order.
But the SNP hopes the goal of independence can unite and
motivate its activists to campaign, can motivate its membership to turnout to
vote and can motivate lapsed supporters to return to the party.