Andrew Little won the largest mayoral victory in 142 years, and Labour and the Greens grew their governing majority at the council table.
Windbag is The Spinoff’s Wellington issues column, written by Wellington editor Joel MacManus.
Andrew Little wins his first election – and makes history
It’s one of the odd quirks of New Zealand’s electoral system that you can have an entire political career without ever actually winning an election. Andrew Little stood for parliament in New Plymouth and lost twice before running as a list-only candidate in 2017 and 2020. Even in the race to become Labour leader, he lost both the members’ and caucus votes to Grant Robertson, but was tipped over the edge due to union votes.
As of Saturday, Little can claim two new titles: mayor of Wellington and election winner. And it wasn’t just any win; it was one of the most emphatic in the city’s history. He was widely considered the favourite, but the overwhelming scale of his victory still came as a surprise. On progress results, Little won 56.9% of first-choice votes, with his nearest rival, Karl Tiefenbacher, on just 14.6%.
On total votes, that’s the largest winning margin the city has ever seen. And based on percentage totals, it’s the largest margin since 1883, when George Fisher defeated William Hutchinson by 43.6 percentage points (924 votes to 363).
A stronger Labour/Greens majority
Getting party politics out of council was a major theme of this election. Polling commissioned by Better Wellington suggested 64% of people thought party politics didn’t belong on council, which is why Independent Together was so desperate to pretend it wasn’t a party.
And yet, on election day, voters sent the exact opposite message. It turns out they quite like party-affiliated candidates. Both Labour and the Greens outperformed their 2022 results; Labour went from having four councillors to six (including the mayor) and the Greens grew from three to four.
That gives the two left-leaning parties 10 out of 16 votes on council. As long as they’re able to play nicely with each other, they’ll have a healthy governing majority.
A more polarised opposition
While the Labour-Greens majority is stronger, the council has become more divided. The conservative minority has swung further to the right. Centrism no longer exists.
Tim Brown, a centre-right-ish councillor who had a good working relationship with Tory Whanau, resigned and has been replaced by Karl Tiefenbacher. John Apanowicz, a centrist councillor who was well-liked around the table, has been provisionally defeated by Andrea Compton. Tiefenbacher and Compton both have more hard-line conservative views than their predecessors.
They’ll join Ray Chung, Diane Calvert, Tony Randle and Nicola Young as the opposition force; a difficult group for Little to find middle ground with. It’ll be interesting to see if he tries to work with them or if, like Wayne Brown, he prefers to ignore and overrule them.
Another record for Labour
In Takapū/Northern Ward, Labour councillor Ben McNulty claimed the biggest victory of any councillor since STV was introduced: 6,256 first-preference votes, enough to be elected twice, and well ahead of second-placed Tony Randle with 1,651.
That margin – 4,605 votes – beats the record previously held by Tamatha Paul, who won Pukehīnau/Lambton ward by 3,131 votes in 2022.
McNulty succeeded because he is a hard-working councillor who has built a high profile in his local area. He’s active across social media and is a regular presence on the r/wellington subreddit. But another big factor is that there was no Green candidate in Takapū. The left-leaning voters were unified, while the conservative lane was split among multiple candidates.
Takapū has often been assumed to be a conservative stronghold, but this result shows that there was a clear appetite for a second left-leaning candidate in the race, and the Greens made a mistake by ignoring it.
Councillor Ben McNulty at the Johnsonville Mall.
An abysmal failure for Better Wellington and Independent Together
It turns out money can’t buy elections – at least, not if the voters hate you. Better Wellington and its affiliated ticket, Independent Together, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on this campaign – far more than any other group. That money bought them massive billboards, posters plastered across shop windows, and an onslaught of social media ads. What it didn’t buy was votes.
Ray Chung finished a distant third in the mayoral race and was the only Independent Together candidate elected to council – and even that was a narrow escape. In 2022, Chung was the top-polling councillor in Wharangi/Onslow-Western ward. Three years later, he nearly missed out entirely: fourth on first-preference votes, and only scraping into third after seven rounds of preference counting.
The ticket’s next-most successful candidate was Ken Ah Kuoi, who finished a close fourth in Motukairangi/Eastern ward – a result that could still shift with special votes. A respected leader in the Pasifika community, his personal reputation may have been stronger than the ticket itself. Andrea Compton, who provisionally won a seat in Takapū/Northern, was once part of Independent Together but quit the group in July.
The revelations that Chung had spread rumours about Tory Whanau clearly damaged the campaign. It was the kind of salacious gossip that broke out of the council bubble and into national headlines. “Pendulous breasts” will forever be part of the New Zealand political lexicon. The campaign was flawed, too. The strategists behind Better Wellington operate from the political fringe, viewing the world through a hostile, conspiratorial lens that most voters find alienating and distasteful.
Ray Chung at his election party at The Featherston Tavern
A surprise in the Māori ward
Tory Whanau went into the Te Whanganui-a-Tara Māori ward race as the odds-on favourite. The incumbent mayor with high name recognition who is popular among the activist left.
Her loss to Labour’s Matthew Reweti came as a surprise to many, including Whanau herself. The most important factor was probably the joint endorsement Reweti received from Te Āti Awa iwi organisations: the Taranaki Whānui board, the Wellington Tenths Trust and the Palmerston North Māori Reserve Trust.
The fact that iwi entities chose to weigh in on the race is notable in itself. Most of Wellington’s Māori ward voters don’t whakapapa to Te Āti Awa, but they still listen when local iwi leaders speak.
In the Māori wards referendum, voters overwhelmingly favoured retaining the ward, 66% to 34%.
Incumbency advantage proves powerful
This was supposed to be a change election with voters taking out their rates-related frustration on sitting councillors. That didn’t eventuate. Incumbent councillors were almost all re-elected with healthy margins. The only incumbent to be defeated (on progress results) was John Apanowicz in Takapū/Northern Ward. But that was probably less about his politics and more to do with his campaign. Apanowicz is popular among his colleagues, but he’s a quiet, introverted guy who isn’t a natural campaigner. Getting out there and talking to people is still really important if you want to win elections.
What could still change
The progress results reported on Saturday are based on 85% of votes counted. The remainder, including special votes and votes cast on the final day of voting, will continue to trickle in over the course of the week. Most of the results are decisive enough that they won’t change much. But there are a few seats that could still flip.
The closest race is in Motukairangi/Eastern Ward, where the Greens’ Jonny Obsorne holds a 126-vote lead over Independent Together’s Ken Ah Kuoi. Special votes typically favour the left, and assuming that remains the case, Osborne should be safe here.
The most likely flip is in Takapū/Northern Ward, where conservative Andrea Compton is 196 votes ahead of centrist John Apanowicz. However, they may be too ideologically similar for much to change.
An unlikely but fascinating flip could play out in Wharangi/Onslow-Western, where Ray Chung is holding onto the third seat over Labour’s Joy Gribben by 430 votes. The remaining votes should favour Gribben, but the margin might be a bit too much to overcome.