Penn State is firing a good coach to go hunt for a great one.

James Franklin was in the national semifinals last season. He’d won 34 games in his last three seasons.

But after an overtime loss to Oregon and two shocking losses to UCLA and Northwestern, he’s gone. The frustration at his inability to take Penn State to the sport’s highest heights outweighed the appreciation for making the Nittany Lions one of the sport’s most consistent programs.

It was understandable after his best roster flopped spectacularly in Year 12, bringing about more doubt than ever that he could bring a national championship to Happy Valley.

But there’s an inherent risk in making a change. Whoever replaces him will almost certainly have a less accomplished resume.

They might take the program to new heights. But they might also take it back down into even more maddening valleys.

The history of programs firing good coaches to find great ones is … dubious.

In 2021, I researched this trend and found that from 2011-2021, 20 programs did what Penn State just did.

Only four made a leap. Eight saw their programs get worse. And eight paid big buyouts and big salaries to hire a new coach and staff for almost identical results.

Since 2021, has that changed? Nope.

Nine programs have fired winning coaches in that span. Only one — Sonny Dykes at TCU — made meaningful progress in the program, but followed his national title appearance in Year 1 with a losing season.

Four programs got worse. And four programs have made almost no progress.

Be careful what you wish for, Nittany Lions. It can get worse. And the odds say it will.

Made the leap

TCU: Gary Patterson for Sonny Dykes in 2021

Patterson built TCU into what it became and won the Horned Frogs a place in the Big 12 in 2012. He won the league in 2014 and won 11 games on two more occasions after jumping from the Mountain West. But from 2018-2021, the Horned Frogs didn’t win more than seven games. TCU fired Patterson in the middle of 2021 and turned to Sonny Dykes.

A season later, the Horned Frogs were playing for a national title, and Dykes won National Coach of the Year honors. TCU went 5-7 a season later but rebounded with a nine-win season in Year 3. This year, the Horned Frogs are 4-2. The results haven’t been markedly different overall from Patterson, but playing for a national title the season after getting rid of a longstanding legend is what teams dream of doing.

Similar results

USC: Clay Helton for Lincoln Riley in 2021

Helton isn’t remembered fondly after spending nearly his entire tenure on the hot seat, but he won a Pac-12 title and a Rose Bowl. He had just one losing season and was 14-7 in his final 21 games before being fired after a home loss to Stanford.

Stealing Riley away from Oklahoma after four Playoff appearances in his first four seasons was a huge win on paper, but other than Caleb Williams’ Heisman in Year 1, accomplishments have been minimal. He hasn’t brought USC to the College Football Playoff and his record has dipped in each of his three seasons. The Trojans are 5-1 this year and perhaps back on the upswing, but Helton was fired for going 46-24 (.657) and 36-13 (.735) in conference play. Riley is 31-15 (.674) and 20-11 (.645).

Miami: Manny Diaz for Mario Cristobal in 2021

Diaz only got three seasons after replacing Mark Richt. He went 21-15 and 16-9 in ACC play, never finishing with a losing record in conference and finishing in the top 25 in 2020.

Cristobal is 27-16 but was 22-16 before the season began, and the Hurricanes raced to a 5-0 start. He finished 3-5 in ACC play two years in a row before importing Cam Ward from Washington State and going 10-2 last year, tripping up in the season finale against Syracuse to fall out of the ACC title game and the College Football Playoff.

The trajectory of the program has improved greatly in the last two seasons, and the Hurricanes look like one of the nation’s best teams, but Cristobal hasn’t won any hardware yet.

After falling short of the ACC title last season, Miami is currently undefeated with multiple top-25 wins. (Melina Myers / Imagn Images)

LSU: Ed Orgeron for Brian Kelly in 2022

Orgeron won a national title and followed it up with two .500 seasons that got him fired, but he preceded that title with 19 wins in two seasons.

Kelly took the Tigers to the SEC title game in Year 1 but has spawned plenty of frustration since then. He helped Jayden Daniels win the Heisman Trophy, and the program has been better than the seasons that cost Orgeron his job, but Kelly has hardly made a leap and finds himself on a moderately hot seat in 2025, though LSU is 5-1 so far this year. This week, the Tigers are an underdog at … Vanderbilt?

Kelly has work to do to avoid becoming the first LSU coach since Gerry Dinardo at the turn of the century to leave LSU without a national title ring.

Houston: Dana Holgorsen for Willie Fritz in 2023

Holgorsen won 20 games in Houston’s final two seasons in The American. After a 4-8 debut in the Big 12, the Cougars waved goodbye and hired Fritz.

Fritz went 4-8 in his first season and is off to a nice start in 2024 at 5-1, but Houston hasn’t beaten a FBS team with a winning record in that run and lost by 24 at home to title favorite Texas Tech.

Early signs of progress are strong, but it’s a stretch to say Houston’s taken any leaps yet.

Got worse

Florida: Dan Mullen for Billy Napier in 2021

Mullen was fired after going 5-6 in Year 4 following three major bowl bids and an SEC title game appearance. Mullen also left Napier a first-round draft pick in Anthony Richardson.

But Napier has just one winning season (8-5 in 2024) on his resume so far and is 2-4 this season. There was hope after winning the last four games of 2024 and returning D.J. Lagway that Napier could turn the corner. Instead, he looks almost certainly on his way out at some point between now and December.

Wisconsin: Paul Chryst for Luke Fickell in 2022

Chryst won 70 percent of his Big Ten games in seven-plus seasons in Madison. He also won at least 10 games four times, with another nine-win season. But after going 9-4, Chryst was fired after a 0-2 start in Big Ten play.

Fickell took over, reshaped the program’s offensive identity, and it’s been a disaster. The program is getting worse year by year. Last year was the first losing season since 2001, and this year, the Badgers are contending for the worst Power 4 team.

The program strayed from the power running identity that marked the program under Barry Alvarez, Bret Bielema and Chryst, and alienated its fan base as the losses piled up, too.

The Badgers have tumbled from a competitive Big Ten program to possibly one of the worst power conference teams in the country. (Jeff Hanisch / Imagn Images)

Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill for Derek Mason in 2023

Stockstill was a reliable old Chevy in Murfreesboro. From 2012 through 2022 (excluding 2020), he won between six and eight games in nine of 10 seasons. However, the program wasn’t competing for conference titles in Conference USA like it was in the Sun Belt. After a 4-8 season in 2023 (3-5 in conference play), the Blue Raiders moved on and turned to former Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason.

He went 3-9 in Year 1, and it’s gotten worse in Year 2. In-state FCS opponent Austin Peay beat Mason’s team by 20 in the season opener. FBS newcomer Missouri State beat them at home last week. The lone win this season came over Nevada, which is 1-5 with a single win over an FCS team.

North Carolina: Mack Brown for Bill Belichick in 2024 

Brown’s Tar Heels teams suffered frustrating losses and had leaky defenses, but the program was on solid footing with him in charge. He went 44-33 in his second run in Chapel Hill, with an ACC title game appearance that served as his only loss by more than 25 points in six seasons.

Belichick has three of those 25-point-plus losses in his first three games against Power 4 competition. In addition to the embarrassing offseason stories, the play on the field has been dreadful, making UNC the sport’s resident punching bag.

It’s still Year 1, and a press conference on Monday, Belichick sounded committed to UNC and his plan, but he’s the only coach on this list whose buyout has been a major topic of conversation midway through his first season.