Key Points and Summary – Russia’s offensive in Ukraine is losing momentum, with new UK intelligence showing territorial gains in September were the slowest of the year.
-This slowdown comes at a staggering cost, as a leaked Russian document suggests over 281,000 casualties in 2025 alone.
Putin Speaking in 2025. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-With monthly losses now exceeding the 31,000 new recruits Russia can sign up, the Kremlin is bleeding manpower for minimal progress.
-A grim wounded-to-killed ratio of 1.3-to-1 further highlights poor battlefield medical care, painting a picture of a grinding war of attrition that Moscow is struggling to sustain.
Russian Land Gains Slump as Casualties Soar in Ukraine
Russia’s push across Ukraine looks to be losing momentum.
New intelligence from the United Kingdom shows Moscow’s forces are advancing more slowly than at any time this year, even as the Kremlin suffers enormous casualties for minimal territorial gains.
The British Ministry of Defense said Thursday that Russian troops captured about 250 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September, compared with around 465 square kilometers in August.
The slowdown is “highly likely” the result of Moscow redeploying elite airborne divisions from Sumy to the heavily contested regions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
Still, this conflict remains as bitter as ever. In September, Russia captured the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
This week, Ukraine has called on its citizens to evacuate Kupiansk as Russia has gained several northern areas of the Oblast.
The Kremlin is also reportedly gearing up for an attempted encirclement of Pokrovsk, a vital Donbas logistics hub, along with the towns of Oleksiivka and Novohryhorivka.
Russia’s latest gains are slim and have generally come at a deadly cost to its own resources.
One leaked Russian military document suggests Russia’s invasion efforts have lost 281,550 men since the start of 2025.
Among this whopping figure, 86,744 were allegedly killed, 158,529 wounded, and 33,966 missing.
The National Security Journal is unable to verify these statistics independently, but Frontelligence Insight told Politico that they broadly line up with their own analysis.
The land gains publicly acknowledged by the Kremlin this year only amount to a measly 1% of Ukraine’s total territory.
Russia currently controls approximately 19 percent of Ukraine’s total territory, but this figure has remained relatively stable since 2022.
The numbers highlight how Moscow is bleeding manpower for minimal progress. The Institute for the Study of War claims that Russia is still signing up some 31,000 recruits monthly, but is shedding almost 35,000.
Desperately aware of this gap, the Kremlin is advertising large signing bonuses of up to 2.5 million rubles—the equivalent of around 31,054 US dollars. Russia is also increasingly turning to African and Middle Eastern recruits.
Image Credit: Office the the President, Ukraine.
Many are enticed with promises of non-combat roles, only to be sent directly into the fighting.
Russia’s casualty ratio also tells a bleak story. In most modern wars, roughly three soldiers are wounded for every one killed. For Russia, that ratio is closer to 1.3 to 1, suggesting chaotic evacuation procedures and a lack of battlefield medical care.
While Moscow claims its “special military operation” is under control, its limited advances have come at a considerable cost.
As the conflict on the ground grinds on, President Donald Trump continues to mull over proposals to fulfill Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles that could strike deep into the heart of Russian territory.
Zelenskyy, meanwhile, argues that such weapons could force Vladimir Putin back to the negotiating table, while others, including Putin himself, warn that they would further inflame tensions.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
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