Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news financial markets are shrugging off a myriad of risks today, with what seems like the flimsiest of reasons.

The key news overnight is that US President Trump seems to have backed off his sharp rhetoric against China in another TACO moment. Markets went into temporary relief mode.

Also in the US, there had been fears that regional bank bad-loan risks were building and spreading. But overnight lenders such as Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance, which tumbled Thursday, recovered +4% to +6%. Strong earnings from Fifth Third Bancorp, Truist Financial, and Huntington Bancshares helped restore confidence in the sector. A lot of the angst can actually be traced back to a February bankruptcy of a Southern California real estate investor, MOM CA Investco LLC, and their dodgy overlapping security obligations.

In this case, like the First Brands case, there is a strong push to paint the woes as ‘one-offs’ rather than a broader malaise. Markets are buying it, for now at least.

It is early in the Wall Street Q3 earnings reporting cycle with only 12% of S&P500 having reported so far, but 88% of them have beaten analyst estimates.

Indian bank loan growth accelerated to its fastest pace of expansion in September, for all of 2025, up +11.4% from year-ago levels to US$2.3 bln.

After two months of declines, Singapore’s exports rose almost +7% in September from a year ago, largely on the back of recovering exports of electronic goods.

In Malaysia, their Q3 GDP result shows them expanding +5.2% from a year ago, accelerating from +4.4% growth in Q2. It is their fastest expansion in a year

In Australia, there is growing concern about the building of uneven wealth distribution and how inheritances embed both inequality and entitlement. A failed attempt to address it through their superannuation system reforms has just raised the pressure to ‘do something’.

A more immediate stress is also building in Australia; American pressure to de-couple from China. This seems quite unlikely given the local wealth-weight dependent on the China trade. But it will make for ‘interesting times’ in the AU-US relationship.

This week we look at titanium, a metal with important strength-to-weight attributes needed for many high-tech applications. China is the dominant producer, supplying about a third of global needs. No other country comes close. US is about 1%, Australia 2%. South Africa and Mozambique together match China. At current production levels, proven reserves will last at least 60 years. (Page 189.)

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.01% and up +4 bps from this time Friday but down -4 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +54 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive again but only by +2 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now -8 bps inverted. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.16%, up +1 bp from Friday, down a sharp -13 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 3.99%, down -7 bps from Friday at this time and down -17 bps from a week ago.

Wall Street is volatile today with the S&P500 now up +0.6% which is up +0.7% for the week. European markets were mostly lower between Paris’s -0.2% and Frankfurt’s -1.8%. Tokyo ended its Friday down -1.4% for a weekly -1.9% retreat. Hong Kong dropped -2.5% to end its week down -1.5%. Shanghai fell -2.0% on Friday but was up +1.0% for the week. Singapore fell -0.6% on Friday. Locally, the ASX200 fell -0.8% to end its week up a net +0.9%. And the NZX50 retreated -0.7% in Friday trade for a -1.3% weekly drop.

The Fear & Greed index has switched sharply into the ‘extreme fear’ zone, from just in the ‘neutral’ zone.

The price of gold will start today at US$4221/oz, down -US$52 from yesterday and off its highs. Silver has fallen proportionately more to just over US$51.50/oz. Platinum is retreating too, now at US$1616/oz and down -6.7% from yesterday. In a week however, gold is up a net +5.8%, silver is up a net +3.3% and platinum is now marginally lower.

American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$61/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$59/bbl and US$63/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and unchanged from yesterday and little-changed (+10 bps) from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, unchanged from Friday and a week ago. Also, see this.

The Chinese yuan strengthened against the greenback for a third straight day Friday, driven by a combination of a faltering American currency amid rising US economic uncertainty and surprisingly good Chinese export data. Against the NZD, the yuan is actually little changed for the week but is +3% stronger over the past month.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,175 and down another -2.3% from this time yesterday. It is down -10.0% from this time last week. In NZD that is a -$20,000 drop in a week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.

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