Ukraine has never sought war. We agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, looked for opportunities for peace, and repeatedly offered the world ways to stop the strikes in the sky, on land, and at sea. But it is Russia that continually obstructs this process – manipulating, dragging out negotiations, terrorizing our people with airstrikes, and intensifying assaults along the front line. The war continues only because Moscow does not want it to end. President Zelenskyy, 19 October
Welcome to my Ukraine Dispatches, updates from my ongoing visit to Ukraine. This is my fourth dispatch, which I wrote while we were driving around southern Ukraine, and published by the Lowy Institute. My first dispatch, which covered Ukrainian military training as well as a certain incident with a snake, is available to read at this link. My second one is available here. My third dispatch, an interview with Nataliie Lutsenko, is available at this link.
Until Trump’s shock social media post last week about his latest conversation with Russia’s President, things had been looking up in the Ukraine-America relationship. Trump and Zelenskyy had completed several collegial in-person meetings in the preceding months. American administration officials were speaking positively about support to Ukraine. U.S. intelligence was being used to support deeper strikes into Russia by Ukrainian weapons and there was talk of Tomahawk missiles being provided to Ukraine.
That all changed with Trump’s social media post, which began with words that probably sent a chill down the spine of Ukrainians and many American allies: “I have just concluded my conversation with President Putin, of Russia, and it was a very productive one.” All the diplomatic progress made by Ukraine in the previous months with the Trump administration was blown away instantly.
This was confirmed during the Friday meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy in Washington DC. The big decision about Tomahawks appears to have been shelved for now, if not all time, as a result of Putin’s lobbying of Trump. And Trump appears hellbent on some kind of ceasefire that freezes the conflict along current Ukrainian and Russian dispositions and that also reinforces Trump’s peace-making credentials in the wake of the Gaza agreement.
This is a disaster for Ukraine, and for America’s allies.
For some time it has been clear that the only way that Putin can achieve even his minimalist goals for his war against Ukraine, which is the complete control over Ukraine’s Donbas region, was that these territories were handed to him by a Trump-sponsored peace deal. Russian forces, which have learned to learn faster and better in the last few years, continue to struggle however to make headway against determined and adaptive Ukrainian ground forces.
While Russia now occupies 19% of Ukraine, only 7% has been taken since 2022. This is a very poor return on investment for over one million casualties. At the same time, Ukraine’s deep strike campaign, the product of three years of development, has reached critical mass and momentum. It is hurting Russia’s energy export income. And potentially shifting the trajectory of the war.
Which is why the timing of Trump’s latest about-turn is so dangerous. A ceasefire now, which would result in a frozen conflict, would be much to Putin’s advantage. First, it would probably see at least some of the current support to Ukraine from foreign supporters ebb away. So too would attention by the west given to the war. Second, it would result in greater political pressure on Zelenskyy at home. Aligning different views on how much to concede to Russia, while also abiding by the Ukrainian constitution, will undoubtedly result in some domestic discord. This is music to Putin’s ears.
Finally, a frozen conflict allows Russia time to reconstitute its forces and to continue the massive rearmament and military expansion program announced in its latest State Rearmament Program.
Even before this program kicks into high gear, Russia (with significant Chinese assistance) has vastly expanded its defence industrial capacity. In one brief I received from Ukrainian intelligence officials this week in Kyiv, Russia is now expending over 125 thousand FPV drones per month and is easily able to replace them. It currently produces 35,000 Shahed drones on an annual basis, building to 40,000 by 2030. It is forming dozens of new divisions. The Russian military has a goal of being ready for war against NATO by 2030.
You can read the remainder of this article, for free, at the Lowy Interpreter.
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For some extra reading on this, back in February I wrote a piece about how Russia could not (and still can’t) achieve a military breakthrough on the ground in Ukraine, and the only way it could achieve a breakthrough in this war was to convince Trump to hand as much of Ukraine to it as possible. Of course, it is not in Trump’s hands to ‘award’ any of Ukraine to Russia as Putin wants. But the perfidy of Trump last week provided Putin with sufficient evidence that this is still a valid course of action for him.