US envoy Tom Barrack has said Syria and Lebanon are the “next two vital pieces” in moves towards peace in the Middle East envisioned in President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end Israel’s war on Gaza.
But Lebanon‘s slow progress on disarming Hezbollah could lead Israel to “act unilaterally” and launch yet another war on the country, Mr Barrack said.
He said the October 13 summit in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt that plotted the next steps for peace in Gaza – but did not include representatives from Hamas or Israel − “will be remembered as a defining moment in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy”.
“The release of hostages, the cessation of hostilities, and the commitments made at Sharm El Sheikh have laid a foundation that now must be constantly monitored, amended and administered in Gaza because there is no doubt that this is a process rather than an event,” he said. “The rhythm of dialogue, however, now needs to be extended northward – to Syria, and ultimately to Lebanon.”
Mr Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, who has also led negotiations with Lebanon, made his comments in a lengthy “personal perspective” posted on his official X account.
“Yet the next two vital pieces of this architecture of peace remain incomplete,” he said, referring to Damascus and Beirut.
The US envoy was considerably more upbeat about Syria than he was about Lebanon. He urged the US Congress to repeal the Caesar Act, which imposed wide-ranging sanctions on the regime of former president Bashar Al Assad in Syria that was toppled by rebels last December.
The legislation “served its moral purpose against the previous, treacherous Assad regime but now suffocates a nation seeking to rebuild”, he said.
He was more downbeat on Lebanon, and conceded that a US-brokered ceasefire that brought an end to much of the Israel-Hezbollah fighting last November had “ultimately failed”.
“No real mechanism for enforcement exists,” Mr Barrack said, referring to the fact Lebanon bans any direct communication with Israel.
Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah was supposed to withdraw to north of the Litani River while the underfunded Lebanese Armed Forces took over its positions. Israel was supposed to withdraw from Lebanon, but instead continues to occupy at least five points of Lebanese territory and bombs the country repeatedly.
“The result was a fragile calm without peace, an army without authority and a government without control,” Mr Barrack said.
In August, in an unprecedented move, the Lebanese government charged the army with formally disarming Iran-backed, Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
That was despite all Shiite ministers storming out of a cabinet meeting to discuss the once unthinkable topic, with Hezbollah itself resisting any discussion over its weapons until Israel ceases its bombings and withdraws.
Although the process of disarmament has started in the south, some observers say it is not happening fast enough. The Lebanese military is severely underfunded and says it cannot extend full control across southern Lebanon until the Israelis have withdrawn.
Mr Barrack said the cabinet and its ministers “are trapped in sectarian paralysis”.
“The Israelis have simply said the rhetoric does not match reality. As Damascus stabilises, Hezbollah grows more isolated. The militia’s foreign control undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty, deters investment, and erodes public confidence and is a constant red flag to Israel,” he said.
“But the incentives for action now outweigh the costs of inaction: regional partners are ready to invest, provided Lebanon reclaims the monopoly on legitimate force solely under the Lebanese Armed Forces. Should Beirut continue to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave.”
The World Bank has estimated the damage and losses to Lebanon from Israel’s bombardment last year at $14 billion. Lebanon has carried out almost no reconstruction so far, with the government short on funds and the international community refusing to part with significant aid until there is more progress on disarming Hezbollah and economic reform.
Mr Barrack said Washington had sought “to usher Lebanon towards a peaceful solution with Israel through incentives rather than imposition”, pointing to the provision of aid based on verifiable progress on disarmament and support to bolster the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
“All these initiatives have stalled while the rest of the region is accelerating towards expulsion of Iran’s terrorist proxies. Syria’s courageous moves towards a border agreement and hopefully future co-operation mark the first steps towards securing Israel’s northern frontier,” he said of Israel-Syria border talks.
“Hezbollah’s disarmament must be the second. Lebanon now faces a defining choice: to seize the path of national renewal or remain mired in paralysis and decline,” Mr Barrack added.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Living in…
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
South Africa squad
: Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wkt), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Chris Morris, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 258hp at 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.4L/100km
Price, base: from D215,000 (Dh230,000 as tested)
On sale: now
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Killing of Qassem SuleimaniGerman intelligence warnings
2002: “Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] … discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes.” Supporters in Germany: 800
2013: “Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel … Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity.” Supporters in Germany: 950
2023: “It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests.” Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send “thenational” to the following numbers:
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh100
6026 – Dh200
Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
The Pope’s itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 – Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder’s Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 – Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.