This photo taken on Oct. 15, 2025 shows smoke rising from the site of an explosion in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. (Photo by Saifurahman Safi/Xinhua)

KABUL/ISLAMABAD, Oct. 21 (Xinhua) — A ceasefire agreement was reached between Pakistan and Afghanistan after border clashes, according to a statement issued by Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday.

Under Qatari and Turkish mediation, the two countries held talks in Doha and pledged to establish a mechanism aimed at consolidating lasting peace and stability.

What is the situation on the ground following this latest flare-up? What triggered the clashes? And can the ceasefire hold?

CURRENT SITUATION?

Officials from both Afghanistan and Pakistan have confirmed the ceasefire, and said the two sides would hold another round of talks in Istanbul on Oct. 25 to discuss detailed mechanisms for implementing the ceasefire and enhancing security cooperation.

Following the outbreak of the clashes, Pakistan closed several key border crossings with Afghanistan. As of Monday morning, the crossings remained shut, cutting off a vital supply route for goods entering Afghanistan.

Pakistani sources told reporters that the Pakistani operation is intended to eliminate terrorist strongholds located inside Afghanistan that have recently launched frequent attacks on Pakistani soil, while an Afghan political analyst described Pakistan’s move as a calculated act of deterrence, saying that without effective communication channels, the situation could “easily spiral into a cycle of retaliation.”

Trucks remain stalled at the Pakistan-Afghanistan Torkham border, amid cross-border clashes in northwest Pakistan’s Torkham, Oct. 13, 2025. (Str/Xinhua)

WHAT’S BEHIND THE CLASHES?

Analysts pointed to two key factors behind the recent hostilities: the long-standing border dispute between the two nations, and Pakistan’s ongoing campaign to deport Afghan refugees.

The border between the two countries — known as the Durand Line — was drawn by British colonial authorities in the 19th century and stretches over 2,000 km. The demarcation split the Pashtun ethnic group in two, leaving more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. As a result, successive Afghan governments — particularly those influenced by Pashtun nationalism — have refused to recognize the line as a legitimate international boundary.

The banned terrorist organization Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), whose ranks are largely composed of Pashtuns, has long exploited the mountainous terrain along the Durand Line to move between the two countries and launch attacks inside Pakistan. Islamabad views Kabul as providing a safe haven for the TTP and has demanded that Afghanistan take decisive action against the group — an accusation the Afghan authorities deny.

According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, there were 143 militant attacks inside Pakistan in August — a 74 percent increase from July — marking the highest monthly death toll since February 2014. Most of these attacks were attributed to the TTP.

Pakistan’s government also claims that militants are hiding among the Afghan refugee population. Over the past year, Islamabad has intensified efforts to deport undocumented Afghan refugees. According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, more than 1 million Afghans have been expelled from Pakistan since the start of 2025. The mass return has worsened Afghanistan’s economic hardship, unemployment, and education challenges — and deepened anti-Pakistani sentiment among many Afghans.

This photo taken on Oct. 13, 2025 shows trucks stalled at the Pakistan-Afghanistan Torkham border, amid cross-border clashes in northwest Pakistan’s Torkham.(Str/Xinhua)

WILL THE CEASEFIRE HOLD?

It is believed that economic constraints on both sides make a major escalation unlikely. Pakistan’s border closures have left long queues of trucks loaded with food, fuel, and other essentials stranded at crossings, with many perishable goods already spoiled. At the same time, Afghan exports of agricultural products, coal, and handicrafts bound for international markets via Pakistan have been brought to a standstill. Fuel and food prices inside Afghanistan have surged sharply.

Both governments, eager to protect their international image, see a temporary ceasefire as the least damaging option. For Pakistan, the truce provides time for the military to regroup and allows Islamabad to portray itself internationally as “responding to Kabul’s request for calm”. For Afghanistan, supporting the ceasefire helps avoid being labeled as “a state that shelters terrorists” — a perception that could threaten its already dwindling foreign aid.

Still, the underlying tensions remain unresolved, as Pakistan continues to demand that Afghanistan sever all ties with the TTP, while Afghanistan refuses to recognize the Durand Line.

The trajectory of bilateral relations will also depend on external factors — including the level of support Afghanistan receives from countries such as the United States and India, whether Iran can replace Pakistan as a key trade corridor for Afghanistan, and the willingness and capacity of nations like Qatar, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia to continue mediating between the two sides.â–