The $4000 zone is proving pivotal—not just psychologically but technically. Thursday’s bounce is raising the question: is this a value-driven entry point, or merely a temporary floor before further selling kicks in?
If the bulls can’t hold ground here, downside targets remain clearly defined, with a major pivot at $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average sitting at $3741.61.
That $3846.50–$3741.61 range now marks the near-term value zone, and a failure to build a higher bottom above it would shift bias back toward the bears.
Geopolitical Risk and Trade Tensions Support Safe-Haven Demand
Fresh geopolitical drivers are also in play. Washington’s move to impose new Ukraine-related sanctions on Russian oil firms Lukoil and Rosneft, alongside threats of broader export controls on China, is helping preserve gold’s safe-haven appeal. The Trump administration is weighing measures to restrict exports of software-powered goods to China in response to Beijing’s latest rare earth restrictions.
While gold hasn’t been reacting as aggressively to geopolitics in recent months, traders continue to factor these risks into long-term positioning. “Stubborn geopolitical risks should preserve safe-haven bids,” noted Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money, although he cautioned that gold may not react with “wild swings” to each headline.
Fed Rate Cut in Focus Ahead of Delayed CPI Print
The market’s attention is now turning to Friday’s delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could add clarity to the Fed’s next move. Fed Funds futures are already pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at next week’s meeting. With real yields under pressure and central banks continuing to accumulate bullion, the macro backdrop still favors a longer-term bullish view.