Cleveland has now turned to third-round rookie QB Dillon Gabriel after beginning the year with Joe Flacco, who is now in Cincinnati. Whether it’s been Flacco or Gabriel, the Browns offense has struggled, ranking 27th in expected points added (EPA) while Cleveland’s defense is third in EPA. From a statistical perspective, the Browns have the biggest gap between defensive and offensive efficiency in the NFL through seven weeks, which is why they’re 2-5.

Although the offense has struggled, the Browns defense might be the biggest challenge QB Drake Maye and the Patriots offense will face all season. Led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett, the Browns are third in EPA, fifth in DVOA, fourth in team pressure rate, and lead the league in pass-rush and run-stop win rate. Plus, veteran DC Jim Schwartz is an excellent schemer. For an offense that hasn’t faced the best competition, it’ll be fascinating to see how Maye fares against the Browns stingy defense.

“They’re playing at a high level, they’re playing with a lot of confidence. It’s a lot of speed, a lot of disruption,” Vrabel said of the Browns defense. “They don’t give you a whole lot of time to make decisions. And then there’s enough change ups in there that you just have to be good. You have to be sound, can’t hold on to the ball. Coverage is sticky, and the linebackers are fast.”

From a big-picture standpoint, winning the turnover battle will be critical on Sunday. The Browns offense struggles to score (30th in PPG), but 21 points off four turnovers led to their 31-6 victory over the Dolphins last week. If the Pats play clean football and force Gabriel to drive the length of the field, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland’s offense out-scoring New England’s with the way Maye is playing. The Pats have won or tied the turnover battle in each game with only one giveaway during their four-game winning streak. If they play turnover-free football, they win.

Let’s preview the chess match between the Browns and Patriots as New England returns to Gillette Stadium after three straight road games.

Patriots Offense Key: Moving the Pocket Could be the Browns Defenses’ Kryptonite

The Browns defense presents a legitimate threat to the Patriots four-game winning streak, serving as a fun litmus test for Maye’s surge into the MVP conversation.

If the second-year quarterback continues dealing this week, Maye will do so against the third-best defense in EPA this season. Maye is now a top-five quarterback by most metrics, ranking fourth in total QBR (76.8) and leading the league in EPA per drop-back (+0.35). But he has also faced defenses that rank 23rd, 31st, 25th, 17th, 22nd, 21st, and 28th in total EPA. That’s not to take away from Maye’s brilliance, but it’s fair to wonder how he’ll do against tougher competition.

This week, Maye will face an opponent with game-wreckers at all three levels of the defense under the direction of a defensive guru in Schwartz. Garrett rightfully gets most of the attention, as his movements at 6-4, 272 pounds look alien-like at times. However, the Browns have built this defense up around their former DPOY. Cleveland also has defensive linemen Maliek Collins, Alex Wright, and first-rounder Mason Graham playing well, while second-rounder Carson Schwesinger and Devin Bush are a solid linebacker duo. In the secondary, four-time Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward and S Grant Delpit anchor the backend for Cleveland.

Schwartz bases the Browns defense out of over fronts (4-3), and they play quite a bit of base defense (37.7%, seventh-highest) with Schwesinger, Bush, and Jerome Baker at linebacker. Cleveland also plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (37%) and is near the top of the league in single-high safety rate (fourth, 62.1%). They don’t blitz much, relying on standard rushes that have produced the fifth-most sacks from a four-man rush (15), but Schwartz does have a cover-zero package.

Generally speaking, New England needs a sound plan to manage Garrett and company – you have to account for this Browns front. That means getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly, spreading out Cleveland’s defense to run, and loading up with extra blockers when they take shots downfield. More specifically, one vulnerability in the Browns defense is using bootlegs or keepers. Cleveland’s defense ranks 24th in EPA per play against bootlegs (+0.30), likely due to their aggressiveness, heavy single-high safety usage, and moving the pocket keeps Garrett away from the QB. Over the last three weeks, the Vikings, Steelers, and Dolphins have hit chunk plays against the Browns defense off bootlegs.