After designating only one player as questionable on Friday’s final injury report, S Kyle Dugger (knee) is inactive on Sunday. The Patriots game-day inactives are S Kyle Dugger (knee), DE Keion White, LB Caleb Murphy, DT Eric Gregory, G Caedan Wallace, WR Efton Chism III, and QB Tommy DeVito is the emergency quarterback.
Although the Patriots being mostly healthy is a good thing, it creates a logjam on the 48-man game day roster where New England needed to declare seven players inactive, including six healthy scratches (53 active players+two practice squad elevations = 55. 55-48 = seven inactives). Therefore, the Patriots needed to make some tough roster decisions on Sunday.
Those tough decisions were declaring undrafted rookie WR Efton Chism III and DE Keion White inactive. Chism had a small role on offense, primarily as a blocker, in last week’s win over the Titans while serving as the primary kickoff returner in the last two games. White, on the other hand, is a mild surprise to be the odd man out at edge rusher. White has had some struggles playing outside the tackle, but played 16 snaps in Week 7.
With the rookie wideout inactive this week, the Patriots will need to turn to someone else alongside RB Terrell Jennings on kickoff returns. Two possibilities could be putting second-rounder TreVeyon Henderson back on kickoff returns, with Henderson returning kicks in the first five games. Another option is third-round WR Kyle Williams, who has warmed up with the returners each week but hasn’t gotten an opportunity yet.
Besides some moving parts on kickoff returns due to roster constraints, second-year QB Drake Maye’s supporting cast will look the same as during the Patriots four-game winning streak. All the Patriots key contributors around Maye are available on Sunday. The Pats offense is in for its biggest test of the season against Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett and the Browns defense. Cleveland’s defense is fifth in DVOA, first in yards allowed, and leads the NFL in pass-rush and run-stop win rate. On paper, this is the best defense New England has faced.
QB Drake Maye’s Supporting Cast
OL – LT Campbell, LG Wilson, C Bradbury, RG Onwenu, RT Moses
WR – Diggs, Boutte, Hollins, Douglas, Williams
RB – Stevenson, Henderson, Jennings
TE – Henry, Hooper, Westover (FB)
With the offensive line going toe-to-toe with Garrett and company, the Patriots are expected to start the same five-man combination along the O-Line for the seventh time in eight games. Although the continuity is promising, one would expect that the Patriots will support the offensive line with significant help in a tough matchup. OC Josh McDaniels could dial up quick-games, bootlegs, and seven-man protections to prevent Garrett and others from taking over Sunday’s game.
As for the Patriots skill players, the interesting storyline to monitor will be the running back snaps. Last week, Stevenson played 45 snaps, or 75%, while rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson was only on the field for nine snaps (14%), and Jennings was given the final nine snaps in garbage time. The Pats rode the hot hand with Stevenson, who started fast vs. the Titans to tally a season-high 88 rushing yards on 18 attempts (4.9 YPC).
Henderson is explosive, but the Patriots haven’t gotten the second-rounder loose yet. Plus, Henderson has had some rookie growing pains in pass protection and with reads and pacing on traditional runs. Although the offense is doing well overall, getting Henderson going would be a positive development for the Pats backfield, while Jennings is active after being elevated from the practice squad for the third consecutive week.
Defensively, the Patriots also continue to rotate at safety. Dugger has started and played every defensive snap alongside rookie S Craig Woodson in starter Jaylinn Hawkins’ place over the last two games. Now, New England will likely return to its starting safety tandem for the first five games, with Dugger (knee) inactive and Hawkins returning after a two-game absence to play next to Woodson. On Saturday, the Patriots elevated S Richie Grant from the practice squad as depth, while the Pats also have DB Dell Pettus and special-teamer Brenden Schooler.
Dugger first appeared on the practice participation report on Thursday with his knee injury as a limited participant. He was then limited again on Friday, while being listed as questionable on the team’s final injury report, putting his game status in doubt. New England’s defense has moved to more deep-safety coverages, like quarters and cover-two, compared to past seasons. The Pats have played split-safety (two-high) coverages on 42.3% of their coverage snaps, the most New England has played since at least the 2018 season (NGS era).
Due to the uptick of two-high safety shells, the Patriots have relied more on Hawkins and Woodson, who fit that style slightly better than Dugger. In the first five weeks, Dugger only played 75 defensive snaps, including just one snap in the Week 5 win vs. the Bills. Then, Hawkins hurt his hamstring, leading to Dugger playing 109 snaps (100%) in the last two games. Besides a tricky coverage assignment that led to a big Saints play, Dugger has been mostly solid playing alongside Woodson, but is now inactive due to a mid-week knee injury.
This week, the Patriots will face a Browns offense with a rookie quarterback who doesn’t throw the ball downfield much. Browns QB Dillon Gabriel ranks last in air yards per attempt (5.9) and deep-pass attempt rate, attempting a throw over 20 air yards on just 2.8% of his 107 pass attempts (0-3 on deep pass attempts). Based on Gabriel’s tendencies, the Patriots safeties won’t be tested much down the field.
However, Cleveland will test New England’s ability to cover tight ends. Star TE David Njoku (knee) is officially active after being listed as questionable on the Browns injury report. Njoku currently ranks second in receptions (23) behind rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. (32) in the Browns offense, so Gabriel targets his tight ends often. The Pats currently rank 23rd in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends (61.3), with Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (six catches, 108 yards) and Raiders TE Brock Bowers (five catches, 103 yards) having big games vs. the Pats defense. It’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots fare against two productive tight ends.
Ultimately, we’d all love to see Maye and the Patriots offense air it out on Sunday. If he were to have similar success vs. a stingy Browns defense, it would be a feather in Maye’s cap in the early MVP race. However, it’s hard to envision a Browns upset unless the Pats give Cleveland easy scores off turnovers like the Dolphins did last week in a 31-6 win for the Browns. The Browns defense will be a good litmus test of how far Maye and the Patriots offense have come.
The Patriots host the Browns at Gillette Stadium with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.