As the prime minister dusts off his T-shirt for a rock star return after his critically acclaimed White House gig, the biggest danger he faces may be the depth and breadth of his own success.
Having won over his party, the Australian people and now the US president, Anthony Albanese and his government must now deal with the structural challenges presented by a lack of effective opposition.
To riff off Joy Division, the Mancunian post-punk legends who graced his torso as he arrival back in Australia, will it be love that tears his government apart?
You don’t need a poll to tell you the Liberal party and broader Coalition are both in strife, but this week’s Guardian Essential report numbers reinforces that this may be more than a cyclical glitch.
On primary vote, the Coalition is wallowing below its abject election failure, with a steady flow of votes to One Nation and no recovery from those who turned to independents in the past two cycles.
Most striking is the continued collapse in the conservative vote from younger voters. Previous analysis from both ANU’s Australian Election Study and Essential’s own tracking suggests this decline is ongoing, with a disproportionate percentage of Liberal voters dying off every political cycle.
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While we don’t give people a formal exit interview when they leave this mortal coil, roughly two-thirds of those departing are Coalition voters, while those turning 18 are just as likely to vote Green as blue. This creates a generational mirror, with two-thirds of under-35s now voting for a progressive party.
In contrast, Labor has managed to stabilise its generational decline, although the particularly strong 2025 election result may distort this somewhat. But it is Greens and independents from both the right and left who are picking up the scraps with their share of the under-35 vote.
Tories have always taken heart from the adage that people become more conservative as they get older, but the impact of rising intergenerational inequity is that younger people are now acquiring little to conserve as they age.
These demographics mean any Coalition leader, no matter how dynamic and focused, will always be swimming against a demographic tide.
To be fair, Sussan Ley’s approvals have been no worse than most first term opposition leader; it’s just that her team is so hopelessly divided and lacking in direction and discipline that all she can try to do is bag her opponent’s wardrobe.
The proxy for leadership has become the Coalition’s dalliance with net zero, something that the Australian public still overwhelmingly supports but which inside forces seek to weaponise.
As the traditional killing season for leaders approaches, a veritable Melbourne Cup field of contenders are jockeying for position, although most punters are not prepared to throw their money at any candidate, with “someone else” or “don’t know” harnessing more than half the vote.
Which ONE of the following people would be the best person to lead the Liberal Party?
Careful readers will note we have mischievously slipped the teal independent Allegra Spender into the mix and while she only outranks Tim Wilson, a separate question finds half of all Coalition voters wishing the Liberals would take a more progressive position in general.
In those few short days after the federal election when the Coalition fractured, there was a credible scenario that the Liberals could invite the likes of Spender or the West Australian independent Kate Chaney into a unity shadow cabinet.
Our figures suggest rapprochement with these community independents, either formally or at least in a realignment of core values, remains a condition precedent for the current Coalition forming anything resembling a majority.
But the total collapse of the Liberal party’s left flank is just one of the structural challenges the party faces. The alternate chimera of a nativist majority fashioned on Maga, UK’s Reform and Sky After Dark seems more difficult in a system where compulsory voting centres political gravity.
Anthony Albanese arriving back from his US trip wearing the Joy Division T-shirt. Photograph: Nine News
Why should Albanese care about the Coalition’s existential woes? Because as the leader of a major party he too has a stake in maintaining a two-party system rather than a new order of fragmented representation and shifting alliances.
More immediately, an effective government needs genuine scrutiny and while it is true that the Greens still hold a narrow balance of power in the Senate, the lack of coherent friction with a government commanding such a strong majority does not make for robust policymaking.
Compounding this challenge is the reality that Albanese’s internal triumph has seen his loyal left faction move to a dominant position within the government, removing the internal friction that anchors effective Labor governments in their social mission.
From Jim Cairns pushing for a hastier retreat from Vietnam under Gough Whitlam, to the likes of Brian Howe and Carmen Lawrence driving the case for the social wage under Hawke-Keating to the internal debates on climate, asylum seekers and general sanity that Albo himself led under Rudd and then Gillard, internal progressive forces have played critical roles in Labor governments.
But with the PM and his key factional allies controlling the castle, those voices have fallen silent, particularly around the Aukus treaty where criticism has been outsourced to party elders like Bob Carr and Doug Cameron.
A final question shows that for all the elite elation that Trump will honour this transfer of wealth and sovereignty, none of the key elements of the Aukus deal has majority public support, leaving a significant weakness in the government’s own defences.
For all the things he has achieved so far in power, the one thing Albo lacks is an Albo; someone whose role is to keep the government on course by making his life harder from within.
Friction is democracy’s richest source of energy. It’s not just the testing of ideas, it’s the mediation of power, through committees, inquiries, legislative debates and yes, elections that need a genuine contest.
Look, if domination of the charts is the PM’s biggest problem, I don’t think he will be losing much sleep on the flight home. But for those of us who want to see a long-term progressive government, some democratic dissonance would be a welcome sound.
Peter Lewis is the executive director of Essential, a progressive strategic communications and research company that undertook research for Labor in the last election and conducts qualitative research for Guardian Australia. He is the host of Per Capita’s Burning Platforms podcast