Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers hold a press conference after the release of the latest decision.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
10/29/25 14:43Stocks, U.S. dollar hold gains after Fed cuts rates
– Reuters
Global stocks held gains and were on pace to advance for a fifth straight session, while the U.S. dollar remained higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates and ahead of earnings from several U.S. megacap companies.
The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points, noting the limited data visibility due to the current government shutdown, and said it is ending the drawdown of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet, also known as quantitative tightening (QT) amid evidence money market liquidity conditions have begun tightening and bank reserve levels dropping.
“Rather than risk a blow-up in short-term debt markets, it only made sense to stop QT. There were already some signs of stress, so there was little to be gained in pushing QT further,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
“In a head nod to the dearth of data, the Fed had to qualify the entire statement by saying ’available indicators,’ because there aren’t a lot of them with the government shutdown. The dissents weren’t surprising, so this was a no surprise kind of statement.”
On Wall Street, U.S. stocks were higher, continuing their recent rally that has pushed major indexes to record levels on cooling trade tensions between the U.S. and China, expectations of a rate cut from the Fed, outsized spending related to artificial intelligence, and a solid start to the corporate earnings season.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 99.13 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 47,805.50, the S&P 500 gained 8.66 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 6,899.55 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 113.34 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 23,940.84.
10/29/25 14:05U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, nods to limits of data during shutdown
– Reuters
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference in Washington on Sept. 17.Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
A divided U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and announced it will restart limited purchases of Treasury securities after money markets showed signs that liquidity was becoming scarce, a condition the U.S. central bank has pledged to avoid.
The rate cut, which included a nod to the data limits the central bank faces during the current federal government shutdown, drew dissents from two policymakers, with Governor Stephen Miran again calling for a deeper reduction in borrowing costs and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid favoring no cut at all given ongoing inflation.
The balance sheet decision will as of December 1 keep the total amount of the Fed’s holdings steady on a month-to-month basis, but shift its portfolio by reinvesting the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills.
The 10-2 decision to lower the policy rate to a range of 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent was expected by investors as a way for the Fed to temper any further decline in a job market policymakers worry may be losing steam.
But Fed policymakers acknowledged the limits in their decision-making process posed by the government shutdown, dating their view of the unemployment rate to August – the month of the last official jobs release – while noting that “available indicators suggest” the economy continued growing at a moderate pace.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET to discuss the results of the meeting and update his views about an economy that policymakers say has been giving off contradictory signals, with a strong run of business investment suggesting underlying strength, but hiring slowing to a crawl.
10/29/25 13:05Opinion: The Bank of Canada’s rate cut makes sense. But now what?
– Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler
On the basis of economic data alone, the Bank of Canada’s latest rate cut was a tough call. While the governor helped shape market expectations this time, we believe the future path of the overnight rate remains murky.
Start with the data. Headline inflation jumped to 2.4 per cent in September, above the 2-per-cent target for the first time since March. Core inflation measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median – which remove volatile components in the consumer price index – remain stuck above 3 per cent. In September, the economy surprisingly added 60,000 jobs, with the net gain driven entirely by full-time jobs. With these numbers, a pause in cuts would have been justified.
However, at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington DC, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem expressed skepticism to reporters about September’s strong employment numbers and insisted that economic growth, while positive, would remain sluggish. We agree.
10/29/25 12:35What’s next?
– Mark Rendell
The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today, followed by a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Fed is widely expected to cut by a quarter-point. The next Bank of Canada rate decision is on Dec. 10.The federal government will release its budget on Nov. 4. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget is expected to show a significant increase in the deficit as a result of slower economic growth combined with significant new spending on defence, infrastructure and housing. Statistics Canada will publish August GDP numbers on Friday. October job numbers are out on Nov. 7 while October inflation numbers will be published on Nov. 17.10/29/25 11:38Lower mortgage rates will attract more homebuyers, but don’t expect a stampede
– Erica Alini
The latest Bank of Canada cut will send variable-rate mortgages lower.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
Today’s interest rate cut will send variable-rate mortgages lower almost immediately. Concerns about the trade war are also putting downward pressure on fixed-rate mortgages, which follow trends in the bond market. Cheaper mortgages, in turn, will convince more people to pull the trigger on a home purchase.
But don’t expect a stampede, said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.
“At this particular juncture, the impact of rate cuts seems to be muted by the weight of negative consumer confidence,” he said.
Canadians remain concerned about the state of the economy and the security of their own jobs, he said. Lower mortgage rates will entice some people to buy, but others will hold off.
Over all, Mr. Soper sees a stronger pickup in sales activity in more affordable cities, such as Quebec City, Montreal, Edmonton, and Halifax. Buyers there may see multiple offers on coveted properties, although nothing resembling the pandemic housing craze.
In Vancouver and Toronto, on the other hand, bidding wars are likely to remain less common, with buyers often able to put in conditional offers, Mr. Soper said. Still, even Canada’s prices markets will get a boost from lower rates, he added.
10/29/25 11:14BoC’s Carolyn Rogers on the housing market
– Mark Rendell
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers hold a press conference in Ottawa.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers on the housing market:
“We always look at housing activity as part of the overall economy and every rate decision. The difficult thing about the housing market in Canada right now is there’s a lot of regional disparity. If you look at the big urban centres, Vancouver and Toronto, you’re seeing pretty soft activity and some steeper declines. But of course, those are on much higher price increases, and you still see pretty acute affordability challenges in those markets. If you move into the Prairies, you see a bit more momentum. Housing starts are a bit healthier. Price declines aren’t as big there. And then as you go east, you’ve got even a more balanced market and even a bit of price uptick in the Atlantic provinces. So it’s really diverse housing market right now. There’s some more acute challenges in the Toronto area, in the condo market.”
10/29/25 11:09Macklem on artificial intelligence
– Matt Lundy
Tiff Macklem on artificial intelligence:
“AI does have great potential to improve productivity and raise standards of living. Over history, we’ve seen a series of very important, sometimes called general purpose technologies – computers, the internet – and they’ve been fundamental in creating new products, changing the way people do business, and those have been instrumental in raising the standard of living of Canadians, and frankly, people around the world. AI … is sort of the next one of these potential general purpose technologies. It has great potential. At the same time, it also has potential to disrupt. … The process of innovation can, even as it’s creating new industries and new products, destroy others. That can put people out of work. So it can be disruptive. … Our sense is this will probably play out faster than previous ones, but we’ll see.”
10/29/25 11:07Macklem on the BoC‘s role in supporting price stability
– Mark Rendell
Tiff Macklem on the bank staying focused on price stability:
“There is a role for monetary policy to play in supporting the economy through this adjustment, but we can’t lose sight of our inflation objective. Canadians have lived through a painful bout of inflation; cost of living is still very much in the minds of most Canadians. It’s really important that the Bank of Canada is a source of confidence in the value of money.”
10/29/25 11:03Macklem on the benefits of free trade
– Matt Lundy
Tiff Macklem on the benefits of free trade:
“The reality is, open trade with the United States has benefited both our countries for many years now. It allows for a more efficient allocation of production. It allows us to specialize in the production of certain goods, export those, import goods from the United States that they specialize in. We can both benefit from economies of scale. … Increased trade friction with the United States means all that works less efficiently, and unfortunately what that means is that unless something else changes, our incomes will be lower. … What’s most concerning is that unless we change some other things, our standard of living as a country, Canadians, is going to be lower than it otherwise would have been.”
10/29/25 10:58Macklem on the role of monetary policy in the U.S. trade war
– Matt Lundy
Tiff Macklem on the role of monetary policy in the trade war:
“We’re now at the lower end of our range of neutral [interest rates]. So monetary policy is providing some stimulus. … What we’re going through is not just a cyclical downturn. And what do I mean by cyclical? Cyclical means you go down and you come back up, you go back to your previous trend path. It’s not just a cyclical downturn. … Part of it is structural. The U.S. has swerved to protectionism. It’s harder to do business with the United States. That has destroyed some of the capacity in this country. It’s also adding costs. Businesses are looking for new markets. They’re reconfiguring their supply chains, that adds costs. The fact that this is partly structural, and the fact that it’s adding costs, limits the ability of, or limits the role of monetary policy, in boosting demand, while keeping inflation low.”
10/29/25 10:55Key quotes from Macklem’s press conference opening statement
– Mark Rendell
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Is the bank done cutting rates?
If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our MPR, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2 per cent while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. We will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s outlook.
Economic weakness is structural
The weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition. The U.S. trade conflict has diminished Canada’s economic prospects. The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs. This limits the ability of monetary policy to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.
Economy will be permanently smaller because of trade war
Even as growth recovers, the entire path for GDP is lower than it was before the shift in U.S. trade policy. By the end of 2026, the level of GDP is about 1.5 per cent lower than forecast in January. About half of this downward revision reflects lost capacity as a result of the trade disruption. The other half is due to weaker demand.
What the bank expects for inflation
CPI inflation was 2.4 per cent in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3 per cent but upward momentum has dissipated. Looking at a broader range of indicators, underlying inflation looks to be around 2.5 per cent. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2 per cent over the projection horizon.
10/29/25 10:45What the BoC expects for GDP growth and inflation
– Mark Rendell
The Bank of Canada published its first base-case economic forecast since January, and the outlook isn’t pretty. It is not projecting a recession, but economic growth is expected to be weak owing to a combination of trade uncertainty and slow population growth.
After contracting an annualized 1.6 per cent in the second quarter, the bank expects GDP to grow 0.75 per cent in the second half of the year, according to the bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Looking further out, the bank expects GDP to grow by a tepid 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.6 per cent in 2027.
There are plenty of downside risks to this projection, given the uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. The forecast assumes that tariff levels remain relatively stable and that Ottawa, Washington and Mexico City successfully renew the continental free-trade agreement, USMCA, next year. There is no guarantee this will happen.
When it comes to inflation, the bank expects the headline Consumer Price Index number to fluctuate in the coming months, but settle back around 2 per cent. Core inflation is expected to decline back toward 2 per cent.
Here’s how the bank puts it in the MPR: “Inflation is expected to drop in October as energy prices decline, reflecting both lower oil prices and reduced refinery margins. Year-over-year inflation is anticipated to rise slightly by January, 2026. This is mainly because prices will be compared with those from the same time last year, when the GST/HST holiday temporarily lowered some prices. After January, 2026, inflation is projected to dip below 2 per cent owing to lower energy prices and the end of the volatility associated with the GST/HST holiday.”
10/29/25 10:38Economists react to today’s BoC rate cut
– Darcy Keith
Here’s how economists are reacting to today’s rate decision:
Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist, Capital Economics
“With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut today widely anticipated, the key development was that it signalled that it now thinks the policy rate is ‘at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2 per cent while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment’. That is a sure sign that it is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in December, as we anticipate, although we still think the Bank will eventually be forced to cut interest rates by another 50bp next year.”
Robert Kavcic, senior economist, BMO Capital Markets
“That’s likely it, for now, for Bank of Canada easing. The Bank appears to believe that the easing to date will offer support; inflation is steadily on its way back to 2 per cent; and the usefulness of monetary policy is somewhat limited in this unique economic environment. That said, we believe that ongoing softness in the job market leaves the door open for some further support, and another 25 bp rate cut is still on the table for early-2026.”
Andrew Grantham, senior economist, CIBC World Markets
“Following today’s cut, the Bank of Canada appears to be moving back onto the sidelines to assess incoming data, the potential impact of next week’s Federal Budget and the progression of trade discussions. On our base case assumptions that the economy starts to gradually recover, and that a trade deal is reached to lower some sectoral tariffs and reduce uncertainty surrounding CUSMA, today’s move would be the final one. However, further cuts would certainly be justified if the economy continues to weaken and/or if the outlook for trade doesn’t improve.”
Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie, economists at National Bank
“To us, it’s reasonably likely that the Bank is now done as we share similar outlooks for growth and inflation. At the same time, we still judge risks as being skewed to the downside which warrants markets discounting some probability of further rate cuts. We’d not close the door on a potential December cut as we will get some important data between now and then, but at this juncture, it seems a ‘hold’ is the more likely outcome.”
Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy, Desjardins Securities
“The communiqué accompanying the rate decision was explicit that, if growth and inflation evolve in line with the central bank’s latest projections, Governing Council is comfortable leaving the policy rate unchanged at the current 2.25%. The Bank of Canada’s GDP projections are relatively tame, meaning that it would take a prolonged period of weakness or a new shock for central bankers to move off of the sidelines.
As a result, while we still see the risks to the economy and inflation as skewed to the downside, our base case no longer assumes the Bank of Canada will reduce its policy rate any further.”
10/29/25 10:31Does this rate cut mean it’s time to choose a variable-rate mortgage?
– Erica Alini
Variable-rate mortgages are generally pegged to the Bank of Canada’s rate and will adjust lower almost immediately after today’s cut.Tijana Martin/The Globe and Mail
The Bank of Canada cut its trend-setting rate once again today because of signs, such as higher unemployment, that the Canadian economy is on shaky ground. Variable-rate mortgages are generally pegged to the central bank’s rate and will adjust lower almost immediately.
Does that mean it’s time to time to go variable, if you’re trying to choose between a fixed- and a variable-rate mortgage? Maybe, but it’s not a slam dunk. Here are a few pointers to help you choose.
Going variable
If you believe Canada’s economy will continue to weaken, leading to more central bank cuts, there’s a case for going variable. The risk, as always, is that unexpected events could push rates back up before the end of your mortgage term. Variable-rate holders have the option to lock into a fixed rate, but getting the timing right is tricky.
Good to know. Going variable is typically riskier if you’re in the earlier stages of paying down your mortgage, when interest charges make up a bigger chunk of your mortgage payments.
Going fixed
If rates fall further, you won’t pocket those savings. But you also won’t have to worry about how economic forces affect interest rates until your mortgage is up for renewal.
Good to know. Keep in mind that fixed rates generally come with steep penalties if you have to break your mortgage. Those penalties tend to become steeper when interest rates are falling.
10/29/25 10:21The future of BoC rate cuts, according to Macklem’s opening statement
– Matt Lundy
Is that it for rate cuts? At first glance, that seems to be the case.
Here was the key line from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s opening statement on Wednesday: “If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our [Monetary Policy Report], Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.”
Heading into the BoC decision, analysts were skeptical that the central bank would deliver additional cuts beyond Wednesday, and those views were only reinforced by Mr. Macklem’s comments. Swaps markets are suggesting there’s only a 50-50 chance of another cut over the coming year, based on Bloomberg data.
Of course, it’s worth emphasizing the conditional aspect of Mr. Macklem’s quote: Interest rate levels are appropriate if the economy evolves in line with the BoC’s forecast. That’s a big if.
The economy is expected to strengthen over the next couple years, with annual growth averaging 1.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027. Still, that is tepid growth. And with the North American trade agreement up for renegotiation – and the possibility that Canada’s export sector gets harmed further – the economy could easily find itself on an even slower growth track.
“U.S. trade policy remains unpredictable, as events over the weekend reminded us,” Mr. Macklem said, a reference to U.S. President Donald Trump threatening an additional 10-per-cent duty on Canadian goods. “There continues to be considerable uncertainty, both about U.S. tariffs and their impacts. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual – we need to be humble about our forecast. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.”
So yes, that could be it for rate cuts. Or maybe not.
10/29/25 10:15Traders appear to interpret BoC’s latest decision as hawkish cut
– Darcy Keith
Given markets were nearly fully positioned for this rate cut, the reaction to the decision has been limited in scope. If anything though, traders appear to be interpreting this as a hawkish cut, given the Bank of Canada’s signalling that this could mark an end to its cutting cycle unless the outlook for inflation and economy changes.
Canada’s two-year bond yield, sensitive to monetary policy decisions, rose to about 2.3980 per cent in the wake of the decision, from about 2.3800 per cent prior, testing its highs of mid-October. Both the two-year and five-year yields are up four-to-five basis points now for the session.
The Canadian dollar is trading well within its range of the day, however, last at 71.75 US cents – marginally higher for the North American trading session.
The Canadian stock market, especially the financial sector, isn’t reacting favourably to the central bank suggesting the current cycle of rate cuts may be over. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is down 0.2 per cent, even as the three major U.S. indexes are marginally higher and as gold and oil prices this morning trend higher. Royal Bank is down about half a percentage point, as is the financials sector in general.
Implied interest rate probabilities in swaps markets are putting about equal odds on whether there will be another cut over the next year. For the bank’s next policy decision on Dec 10, traders are putting very slim odds of a cut, rising closer to 50-50 odds by next March, according to LSEG data.
10/29/25 09:49Bank of Canada cuts rate to 2.25 per cent, signals easing cycle may be over
– Mark Rendell
The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, but signalled that it might be at the end of its easing cycle even as U.S. tariffs inflict significant and lasting damage on the Canadian economy.
The bank’s governing council voted to lower the policy rate by a quarter-percentage-point to 2.25 per cent. This was the bank’s second consecutive cut, and the fourth cut this year.
The decision was driven by a weakening economic outlook and a belief that inflation is largely contained. But Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that it may be the bank’s last rate cut for some time.
If the economy evolves in line with the bank’s new forecast, Mr. Macklem said, “governing council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2 per cent while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.”
The bank didn’t mince words about the outlook for the Canadian economy. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionism and moves to dismantle continental free trade have hammered Canadian businesses and workers, and will leave lasting scars on the country’s economic capacity.
The bank estimates that Canada’s gross domestic product will be about 1.5 percentage points smaller by the end of next year than it would have been without U.S. tariffs and the uncertainty they have sowed.
“The weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition,” Mr. Macklem said, according to the prepared text of his remarks.
Read more about today’s Bank of Canada decision.
10/29/25 09:00U.S. Federal Reserve also expected to cut on Wednesday
– Mark Rendell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a news conference on Sept. 17, when the U.S. central bank announced a rate cut. Another cut is expected on Wednesday.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Several hours after the Bank of Canada rate announcement, the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver its own rate decision, which is widely expected to be a quarter-point cut.
Like the Bank of Canada, the Fed resumed easing last month after a long period on the sidelines. The two central banks, however, are in very different positions.
The Fed has cut interest rates much less than its northern counterpart, reflecting the more robust U.S. economy and the risk that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will touch off another round of inflation at home. The target range for the benchmark Federal Funds rate is 4 per cent to 4.25 per cent, compared with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate at 2.5 per cent.
The higher starting point suggests that the Fed still has a ways to go with its easing cycle. And the latest U.S. inflation numbers, published Friday, offer little reason not to cut again today.
Annual Consumer Price Index inflation in the U.S. ticked up to 3 per cent in September, from 2.9 per cent the prior month. But this increase was less than Wall Street expected, suggesting the inflationary impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs remains subdued.
The Fed won’t have several other key pieces of data, including the latest jobs numbers, as the U.S. federal government shutdown has prevented their publication.
With markets fully expecting another cut, the key question for the Fed decision is more technical: Will the central bank stop shrinking its US$6-trillion balance sheet, ending a three-year process of quantitative tightening?
QT is the inverse of quantitative easing, or QE, which saw the Fed buy trillions of dollars of government bonds and other assets during the COVID-19 pandemic in an attempt to hold down interest rates. Since 2022, the Fed has been trying to get its holdings back to a more normal level by letting these assets mature without replacing them.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech earlier this month that the central bank was nearing a point where it would stop shrinking its balance sheet. This could influence market interest rates as the Fed would resume bond buying to replace the ones that mature.
10/29/25 08:15What analysts and investors expect
– Mark Rendell
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is seen during a news conference in Ottawa on Sept. 17.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
A Bank of Canada rate cut today is all but guaranteed, according to financial markets. As of Wednesday morning, interest rate swap markets, which capture expectations about monetary policy, put the odds of a quarter-point cut at around 85 per cent, according to Bloomberg data.
Bay Street analysts also expect a cut, although with slightly less conviction. Of the 34 analysts polled by Reuters last week, 23 expect the bank to cut and 11 expect it to remain on hold.
Looking further ahead, financial markets aren’t pricing in any further cuts this year, and only one more cut next year. Analysts likewise think the Bank of Canada is near the end of its easing cycle. Only eight of the 34 analysts polled by Reuters think the policy rate will be at or below 2 per cent by the end of 2026.
10/29/25 07:00Bank of Canada expected to cut rate to 2.25 per cent
– Mark Rendell
For weeks, financial markets have been betting on another rate cut from the Bank of Canada. The latest eruption of trade turbulence – with U.S. President Donald Trump calling off trade negotiations with Ottawa and threatening new tariffs – likely seals the deal.
The central bank resumed rate cuts last month, citing a “weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation.” Since then, some economic indicators have come in stronger than expected and inflation has ticked higher.
But overall, the Canadian economy remains on shaky ground as U.S. tariffs hammer the country’s steel, aluminum, auto and forestry industries and freeze business investment. Canada added some 60,000 jobs in September, but the unemployment rate remains at an elevated 7.1 per cent.
This should be enough to convince Governor Tiff Macklem and his colleagues to lower the policy rate by quarter-percentage-point to 2.25 per cent, according to Bay Street analysts and investors. The key question is what, if anything, Mr. Macklem signals about the path ahead for interest rates.
The economy is clearly in need of support, and lower borrowing costs would be welcomed by homeowners and businesses. But the central bank is constrained by the fact that inflation remains above its target.
Consumer Price Index inflation came in hotter-than-expected in September, with headline inflation rising to 2.4 per cent from 1.9 per cent. Measures of core inflation continue to hover around 3 per cent – the top end of the bank’s inflation-control range.
Mr. Macklem has said repeatedly that monetary policy can’t take the lead in responding to a trade shock that both weakens the economy and pushes up prices. That’s better handled by fiscal policy, which will be laid out in the federal government’s budget on Nov. 4, only a few days after the rate decision.
The bank will publish a new forecast for economic growth and inflation in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Since January, the bank has chosen to publish upside and downside economic scenarios instead of one central forecast to account for the extreme uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.