It’s Derby day at Flemington and the three Group 1s are stacked with elite talent.
The track is likely to be rated a Good 4 and the rail will be in the true position.
Race-by-race preview, tips and best bets for the nine-race card below.
Race 1 – G3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)
Regal Award (5) obliterated his BM70 rivals over this trip at Caulfield last start when leading throughout. He’s a keen-going horse and the decision to just let him roll paid big dividends. This is tougher but a repeat of that performance would see him winning this.
Panova (9) was a stylish Group 3 winner in Sydney last start and Waller has an excellent record in this race. The way she savaged the line over 1400m suggests she’ll handle the rise to 1600m fourth-up.
Outside of a soft kill here over 1400m, Vinrock (1) has been a touch disappointing this prep. A slow start was costly at The Valley two-back, before running okay in the Guineas when given every possible chance. Barrier two helps.
West Of Swindon (2) should probably be closer to Vinrock odds-wise. He overdid it in the Guineas last start.
VERDICT: Regal Award (5) on top.
Race 2 – G3 The TAB Vanity (1400m)
Sheza Alibi (4) ran a cracker first-up for Moody and Coleman, finishing 3rd to Tentyris who looks the horse to beat in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. She’s drawn ideally in barrier three, blinkers go on, and her last run over 1400m was a second to Autumn Boy.
Teine Aulelei (9) was ridden for luck in the Crockett Stakes (1200m) last Saturday and didn’t get any. She went to the line with a lot more to give, so it’s not a huge shock to see her back-up over 1400m here. The gate means she’ll be spotting the top pick a decent start.
Icarian Dream (1) could be a sharp improver getting to a bigger track with the blinkers going on for the first time. She’s shown glimpses of above-average ability but hasn’t been able to put it together on a consistent basis.
Stardom (2) was a tough winner at The Valley last start but loses J-Mac.
VERDICT: Sheza Alibi (4) looks hard to beat.
Race 3 – G3 Rising Fast Stakes (1200m)
No great confidence here so happy to have something small on Libertad (1) at big odds. His first-up run when 4th to Rothfire was full of merit, working home strongly from 9th at the 400m to finish just out of the placings. He was a second-up winner over this distance last campaign.
Caballus (5) comes out of the same race and produced a better performance but is a quarter of the price (of Libertad). He’s won 2 from 3 when second-up and he’s run well here previously.
Hedged (10) has been a costly horse to follow but has the ability and the draw looks suitable.
Star Patrol (4) has been good in two runs since resuming but he’s an injury-prone horse who generally does his best work early in the campaign. Third-up, he’s a riskier betting proposition.
VERDICT: Small bet on Libertad (1).
R4 – G2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m)
She’ll be short odds but Getta Good Feeling (1) looks the banker of the day and the horse to anchor in multis etc. She was third in the G1 Thousand Guineas, finishing ahead of Salty Pearl who won easily last Saturday. She gives every indication she’ll eat up 2000m.
Fashionable (7) is only coming off a Hawkesbury maiden win but she’s improved with each start and the blinkers go on for the first time. The horse who finished 3rd to her last start, Tommy Thug (beaten 0.3L), won by a lazy 8L over this trip at Doomben on Wednesday.
Ethereum Girl (2) was well-held in the Thousand Guineas but was good prior and can settle closer in this from barrier two.
Prestige Snitzel (4) is going okay but a win would shock.
VERDICT: Getta Good Feeling (1) should justify her short quote.
R5 – G2 The Damien Oliver (1400m)
Enxuto (12) was excellent second-up over this route last start, finishing a length off Von Hauke who then won impressively last Saturday. He drops to 53kg, has drawn perfectly in barrier three, and is open to further improvement third-up. Him being roughly three times the price of Warnie seems a little odd.
King Zephyr (13) gave away too big a start at Caulfield last time when unable to run down the in-form Zou Sensation. He beat the rest comfortably and should find Flemington more to his liking.
Ndola (14) has come back really well and possesses a genuine will to win. The gate means it will take a good steer from Luke Currie but she can’t be overlooked.
Zou Sensation (4) will be right up on the speed and will give them something to run down deep into his preparation. It seems likely that he’ll cop a bit more pressure than he did last start though.
VERDICT: Enxuto (12) makes each-way appeal. BEST VALUE
R6 – G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
Tentyris (3) wasn’t in the A-ground in the Danehill first-up but ran well behind the quinella pair who raced in the best part of the track. He stepped up to 1200m last start and won impressively in a real duck and weave job from Zahra. He’s proven down the straight and should be peaking third-up.
Beadman (10) needed the run first-up but showed plenty of fight under pressure to be beaten less than a length. He clearly should have won last start when hopelessly held-up in the straight. His recent jumpout down the straight was easy to like.
Beiwacht (1) ran a track record in the Golden Rose and Tempted and Autumn Boy have both franked the form. That was a big spike on previous efforts so the query is whether he can repeat the dose coming back to 1200m.
Legacy Bound (9) recorded a gritty win in the Poseidon here two-back. He was a bit plain last start but might be looking for 1200m now. He’s had two goes over this distance for two dominant wins.
VERDICT: Tentyris (3) for the win. Beadman (10) looks the main danger.
R7 – G1 Victoria Derby (2500m)
Observer (1) couldn’t have drawn any better than barrier four. He can roll forward and lead or take a sit if the pace from out wide is hot. He could have won by 2L+ last Saturday but Zahra throttled him right down. It’s a big difference from 2040m to 2500m but he clearly looks the class runner in this field.
Deal Done Fast (16) looks the best roughie at around $41. His last start in the Norman Robinson (2000m) was a really good Derby trial. He made an early move around them, looked to peak on the effort, but then came again late to be as strong as anything on the post.
Providence (6) caught the eye late in the Vase and looks suited stepping up in distance. He loses J-Mac but Williams is a handy replacement in a big Group 1.
Options (5) was given none last week – it was a shocker of a ride but Coffey gets a chance to atone here from barrier seven.
VERDICT: Deal Done Fast (16) looks a good place bet. Will also be playing exotics around 1, 5, 6 and 16.
R8 – G1 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)
Leica Lucy’s (6) two runs back have been outstanding. She came from last to finish a close 4th to Lazzura here first-up, then stepped up to the mile and chased home Transatlantic and Evaporate in the G1 Toorak. This will be a proper mile test with Pride Of Jenni engaged, so there are no issues with her staying at 1600m given you probably want a horse that can run a strong 1800m+.
Pride Of Jenni (1) will lead and Idle Flyer looks the only horse that could really make her work in the early stages. She was poor last time but that has become her pattern these days. Her form reads: last – 1st – 9th – 1st – 10th – 1st – 7th.
Idle Flyer (10) probably has a higher ceiling than most here. It’s a bit of a guessing game with her but her last-start win over this distance was mighty impressive, running fast time with big margins to 2nd and 3rd.
Abounding (3) is airborne and got a much-deserved win last start. This will be a true test of her stamina though – first time at a mile and POJ setting the speed.
R9 – G3 Kirin Ichiban Sprint (1100m)
Near-impossible race to close the card. New York Lustre (10) looks well-drawn out very wide and won her only previous straight-course run in soft fashion. Her last-start effort was her best for some time.
Soft Love (13) beat home New York Lustre last start and was excellent over 1100m here three-back.
Stretan Angel (5) is in the mix now that she’s back in winning form, while the same can be said for She’s Bulletproof.
It’s a raffle (imo).
VERDICT: Very small play on New York Lustre (10) but will be casting a wide net in the quaddie.