Struggling to settle on a Cup winner? Racing.com’s Sam Lyons pieces together the clues to picking the winner

CLUES TO FIND THE CUP WINNER

If there’s one race that loves a good pattern, it’s the Melbourne Cup. History doesn’t just repeat here, it drops hints. From the right age and weight to the right barriers and bloodlines, there’s plenty in the numbers that might just help you narrow it down this Tuesday.

JOCKEYS

Of the riders going around, Kerrin McEvoy has the pick of the record books with three Cup wins to his name. Mark Zahra is the only other multiple winner with two, while Craig Williams, Blake Shinn, James McDonald and Jye McNeil have each done it once before.

Verdict: If you like to follow the hoops who’ve had the most success, Kerrin McEvoy rides Absurde and Mark Zahra will be aboard Al Riffa.

TRAINERS

Bart Cummings’ 12 Cup wins is miles clear of anyone else and probably always will be. The only multiple Cup winner lining up this year is Joseph O’Brien, who’s done it twice. Three others – Ciaron Maher, Chris Waller and Gai Waterhouse – have each had their moment in the Cup sun and will be out to add another.

Verdict: Joseph O’Brien will saddle two runners this year, the well-fancied Al Riffa and stablemate Goodie Two Shoes.

BARRIERS

Barriers 5 to 12 have been the sweet spot since 1924, producing more winners than any other section of the gate. Barrier 5’s been the golden ticket, throwing up nine Cup winners, including last year’s $301 upset with Knight’s Choice. The inside gates (1 to 4) haven’t been much help, and barrier 18’s only win came from Verry Elleegant in 2021.

Verdict: If you’re hunting a lucky draw, Japan’s Chevalier Rose landed the right number this year.

AGE

Four and five-year-olds are the Cup’s golden age bracket. They’ve won 91 editions between them, making up 56 percent of all winners. Six-year-olds come next at 21 percent, while three-year-olds haven’t won since 1941 and only account for 14 percent. Seven-year-olds make up 8 percent of the winners, and eight-year-olds just 2 percent.

Verdict: Only a few in the right age zone this year, one 4YO in Furthur, and five 5YOs including Half Yours, Parchment Party, Meydann and Royal Supremacy.

WEIGHTS

Since Rising Fast won with 56kg or more in 1954, it’s been rare air carrying a big weight to Cup glory. Only seven have managed it since, with Makybe Diva in 2005 and Gold Trip in 2022 the most recent. Last year’s blowout winner Knight’s Choice carried just 51.5kg.

Verdict: Most of this year’s field sits under that 56kg mark, which is right in the sweet spot. If you’re looking for a little further advantage, River Of Stars gets in beautifully with 51.5kg and also gets a 2.5kg swing on Half Yours from their Caulfield Cup clash.

BREEDING

We’ll count the Kiwis as locals here, but it’s no secret that international breeding has had the Cup in a chokehold for decades. Since Kingston Rule in 1990 and Vintage Crop in 1993, the internationals have been rolling through the Cup at will. From Media Puzzle in 2002 onwards, 16 of the 23 winners have been internationally bred. Only four Aussie-breds have broken through since 1996, Knight’s Choice, Vow And Declare, Shocking and Viewed. This year, there are just three locally bred runners flying the flag.

Verdict: They may not be statistically apparent, but if a local can pull it off, it’ll be Half Yours as the lone Aussie in the field, while Kiwis Torranzino and Smokin Romans are our best half-home hopes.

SEX

It’s still a boys’ club. Males have won 91 percent of Cups, leaving the mares just 9 percent. Of the boys, 44 percent were entires and 34 percent geldings, with only 12 percent being colts. This year’s line-up is again almost all entires and geldings.

Verdict: The girls are short on numbers but not without a shot. If you do love an underdog, let’s cheer on River Of Stars and Goodie Two Shoes who will fly the flag for the girls.