The fiery battle between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill to become New Jersey’s next governor is a dead heat just days before Election Day, according to a new survey from a pollster that was recently ranked as the nation’s most accurate.
The poll from AtlasIntel, out Friday night, found Sherrill in front by less than 1 percentage point, drawing support from 50.2% of likely voters, compared to Ciattarelli’s 49.3%.
Less than 1% of voters remain undecided.
The survey comes on the heels of six polls Thursday that show Sherrill up anywhere from 1 to 9 points in the nationally watched Nov. 4 election to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. That includes a Fox News poll that showed her leading by 7, up from 5 earlier this month.
AtlasIntel has been lauded for having the most accurate polling of the 2020 and 2024 presidential races. The firm received an A+ in Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” rankings earlier this year.
Other findings in the group’s Friday poll:
Ciattarelli leads 54% to 64% among independents.Ciattarelli leads with men 60% to 41% and Sherrill with women 59% to 41%. Ciattarelli leads with Black voters 60% to 40% and Sherrill with Latino voters 62% to 28%. Both are considered critical voting blocs.President Donald Trump‘s rating with Jersey voters is underwater, 47% approval to 52% disapproval.Murphy is also underwater, at 43% to 53%.Of those who voted for Trump in last year’s presidential election, 99% back Ciattarelli and 1% Sherrill. Of those who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris, 97% back Sherrill and 3% Ciattarelli.Affordability (66%), taxes (34%), and the economy/jobs market (21%) are the top issues for voters.
The survey was conducted with 1,639 likely New Jersey voters between Oct. 25-30. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 2.2 percentage points.
The race will determine whether Sherrill, a congresswoman, keeps the governor’s office in Democratic hands or Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker running for governor a third time, turns it red.
It comes four years after Ciattarelli came surprisingly close to unseating Murphy in the last governor’s race. This time, the seat is open.
It’s also one of only two gubernatorial contests in the country this year, along with Virginia. And it’s considered an early referendum on Trump’s return to the White House.
Ciattarelli scored Trump’s endorsement and has praised the president. Sherrill has said she would protect the state from Trump.
Axios reported Saturday morning that Trump’s political operation will pour $1 million apiece into the New Jersey and Virginia races to help drive turnout in the home stretch.
Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama is set to appear alongside Sherrill at a rally in Newark on Saturday afternoon — the latest in a series of big-name Democrats to stump for her.
Predicting the race has been a challenge, with the majority polls having Sherrill leading Ciattarelli, but mostly by single digits and with some surveys showing her lead shrinking in recent months.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin told NJ Advance Media on Friday that the party is “not taking anything for granted.”
“There’s nothing in any of the polling or anything we’ve seen to date that suggests that Mikie’s in danger of losing this election. Just the opposite,” Martin said. “What we’re doing is we’re going to go out there and work extremely hard to talk to every voter in these final few days left and to turn out every single voter we can to vote in this all-important election.”
Sherrill insisted during a campaign Saturday that “New Jersey is not a red state.”
“I’ve got some even better news, guys: New Jersey is not a purple state,” she added. “New Jersey is a blue state. … I have seen the polling numbers, guys. … So when we vote, we win.”
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, appeared at a town hall broadcast live Wednesday night on Fox News with host Sean Hannity in Point Pleasant. Hannity pointed out recent polls that show a close race.
“I came up here because this is a huge political earthquake,” Hannity told the crowd before the taping, according to a report by the New Jersey Monitor.
In addition to the Trump factor, both Ciattarelli and Sherrill have made taxes and affordability a crux of their campaigns.
Mail-in voting has been underway for a month. Early in-person voting runs through Sunday. Election Day is Tuesday.
More than 1.1 million voters have already cast ballots in the race — more than 567,600 via mail and more than 510,900 in person. About 245,800 more Democrats than Republicans have voted, while 204,500 voted have come from unaffiliated voters.
People in line Saturday at the Monmouth County library in Manalapan to vote early in New Jersey’s 2025 elections.Karin Price Mueller | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
There were about 100 people on line Saturday at a polling place in Manalapan, including people with children, baby carriages, couples and singles.
A poll worker peeked outside of the room where the voting booths were to see how long the line was. “It’s been like this all week,” she said with a broad smile. “All week.”
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