A top-heavy season means with a month left, we have a ridiculous race to 15 wins which could still catch somebody out… and nobody has ever even missed the top eight with 14 before.
This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.
Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games? See our predicted final ladder below.
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How does The Run Home work?
We’re trying to predict who makes the eight, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’ve predicted. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.
Baz gets into it with cheeky North fan | 00:55
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn at People First Stadium
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): GWS Giants vs Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Adelaide Crows vs Geelong at Adelaide Oval
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (17.5 projected wins)
2. Adelaide Crows (16.75)
3. Geelong (16.05)
4. Brisbane Lions (15.6)
5. Gold Coast Suns (15.5)
6. GWS Giants (15.3)
7. Fremantle (15.05)
8. Hawthorn (14.8)
9. Western Bulldogs (14)
10. Sydney Swans (11.4)
11. Port Adelaide (9.65)
12. Carlton (8.9)
13. St Kilda (8.45)
14. Melbourne (7.7)
15. Essendon (6.85)
16. North Melbourne (6)
17. Richmond (5.85)
18. West Coast Eagles (1.9)
Key Talking Points
– Look, it’d definitely be nice if more clubs were in the finals race. This time last year, 13 teams still had a chance, instead of nine. But don’t let anyone tell you this race isn’t interesting; it’s the most top-heavy season we’ve had in years, meaning there’s a genuine chance someone misses finals with 15 wins. Nobody had ever even missed the eight with 13 wins until last season;
– Collingwood and Adelaide should be the top two unless something goes very wrong. The Crows really can’t go worse than 2-2, making it impossible for anyone bar Brisbane or Geelong to catch them, while the Pies have a harder draw but an extra banked win. They’re both virtual top-four locks;
– Geelong would almost certainly still make the top four if they lose one game (vs PA, ESS, SYD away, RIC) and maybe even if they lose two. But they really should win out;
– Brisbane, Gold Coast and GWS (in that order) are the realistic contenders for the final top-four spot. If the Lions only win three of four (vs COL away, SYD, FRE away, HAW) they’ll have a chance to hold on, because the Suns and Giants play each other in Round 23. The winner there will have a good shot at pinching fourth;
– Hawthorn and Fremantle are clearly the two top-eight sides most at risk. The Hawks will find it hardest to reach 15 wins (vs ADE away, COL, MEL, BL away) while the Dockers should get there (vs CAR, PA away, BL, WB away) but have the worst percentage of the contenders making them susceptible to losing tiebreakers;
– The Bulldogs very likely play finals if they win their last four games (vs GWS, MEL, WC, FRE) because of their excellent percentage and the near-certainty someone else will join them on 15 wins. If they only win three of four, there’s some chance they can’t catch the pack, with the most likely teams to get stuck on 14 wins with them being (in order) the Hawks, the Dockers or the Giants (the latter two because the Dogs play them);
– Sydney cannot catch anyone 7th or above and the scenario where they catch 8th-placed Gold Coast is absurd, so we can stop pretending this is a thing now. Reckon they should be good next year though?
– Final note; if we were purely tipping every game like on a ladder predictor, we would have Hawthorn missing the eight on 14 wins.
Greene’s Heeney strike ‘not a good look’ | 02:17
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.
1. COLLINGWOOD (15-4, 135%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Already safe unless something absurd happens
As long as the Magpies go 3-1 over the next month, they’ll host a qualifying final. Heck, they could even hold onto second if they go 2-2, though that’s less likely. Otherwise the real focus remains the minor premiership, which is probably on the line in Round 23 against the Crows, in a potential Grand Final preview. It’s not a massive deal finishing 1st vs finishing 2nd unless you care about recent history; the last four minor premiers have made the Grand Final (and three won the flag), while only one second-placer (Brisbane in 2023) made the decider.
Fox Footy’s projection: 17.5 wins, finishing 1st
“He’s looking overweight” | 00:21
2. ADELAIDE CROWS (14-5, 146%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 23: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval
Round 24: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? One to be certain, but likely safe now due to their percentage
They’re as close to mathematically certain of playing finals as you can get; three wins and percentage safe inside the eight with four games left, and two of those games are against the Eagles and Kangaroos. We can’t see seven teams below them passing them, so the September drought is over. Instead the Crows are looking up, to see if they can catch Collingwood for an unlikely minor premiership; and even if they lose to the Magpies in Round 23, they’ve got a great chance of holding on for a home qualifying final (because Brisbane likely won’t finish 4-0).
Fox Footy’s projection: 16.75 wins, finishing 2nd
“You DREAM about performances like that” | 09:57
3. BRISBANE LIONS (13-5-1, 110.8%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 22: Sydney Swans at the Gabba
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 24: Hawthorn at the Gabba
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Two to be certain, but one likely enough due to the draw
This was a fixture loss (like an NBA ‘schedule loss’). We’re not saying the Lions lost to the Suns because of a short break or anything; we mean their absolutely brutal draw was always going to make them stumble at some point, though we didn’t think it would get that bad against their little brothers. In fact now not only should Queensland have two finals representatives, but Brisbane and Gold Coast look to be fighting for the final spot in the top four. (GWS has a good shot too.) The Lions’ one-and-a-half game lead may not be enough given the Suns play four more bottom-nine teams while Chris Fagan’s men play one (and it’s the best one, Sydney). They still control their fate but could very realistically slip into sixth or seventh if things really go wrong. Even finishing 3-1 could cost them the double chance if Geelong and the Round 23 Suns/Giants winner both go the rest of the season unbeaten.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.6 wins, finishing 4th
Fagan on ‘a game to forget’ for Lions | 05:40
4. GEELONG (13-6, 134.2%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium
Round 23: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 24: Richmond at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Two to be certain, one and they’re likely fine on percentage
When you’re in ‘captain eating a mid-game kebab and your star forward is getting even more fed’ territory, you’re going alright. The Cats’ only real stumbling block remaining should be Sydney away in Round 23, but even if they’re upset there, 16 wins plus their percentage should be enough for a top-four finish. If they win out they should catch Brisbane (because their draw is hard enough to lose at least once more), and then it’d be about whether they can catch the loser of Adelaide v Collingwood (also in Round 23) to earn a home qualifying final. Either way it looks pretty likely the Cats will be facing the Crows or Magpies in week one of the finals, it’s just about the specifics of the bracket.
Fox Footy’s projection: 16.05 wins, finishing 3rd
Classic Scott lauds whole team showing | 05:05
5. HAWTHORN (13-6, 119.9%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 23: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Two to be all-but-certain, one and they’re at risk of missing on percentage
They still have such a wide range of potential outcomes; after all, the Hawks are fifth with a very solid percentage! Two more wins should get them into September and there are definitely scenarios where their Round 24 game is for a top-four spot. But it’s crunch time, because if they can’t beat any of Adelaide, Collingwood or Brisbane away we’re pretty sure the Hawks will miss the finals entirely. They’d be stuck on 14 wins, with every other top-eight side having a clear path to 15, while the Bulldogs will surely join them on 14 by beating the Demons, Eagles and either Freo or GWS. In that scenario the Hawks would need Freo or GWS to also get stuck on 14 wins with them to survive.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.8 wins, finishing 8th
Mitchell on ’embracing the villain role’ | 09:37
6. GWS GIANTS (13-6, 118.4%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: North Melbourne at Manuka Oval
Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Round 24: St Kilda at ENGIE Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Two to be all-but-certain, one and they’re at risk of missing on percentage
A miraculous second-half comeback, clearly driven by a level of genuine hatred for the Swans, has the Giants almost certainly playing finals from here. While we could see them losing to the Bulldogs and Suns away, surely they’ll get the job done against North and St Kilda, and while there’s a fringe scenario where they miss the eight with 15 wins because of percentage it seems pretty unlikely. We were doubters for a while but having genuinely improved across their six-game winning streak, the Giants have a real shot at the top four; though 16 wins likely wouldn’t be enough because of their percentage.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.3 wins, finishing 6th
Kingsley concedes GWS must improve | 10:34
7. FREMANTLE (13-6, 111.7%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Carlton at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Two to be all-but-certain, one and they’re at risk of missing on percentage
Ideally they would’ve built a bit more percentage in the Derby; at this point it’s very likely Freo finishes with the worst percentage of the top nine. That will be a huge problem if they get stuck on 14 wins (but if they’re losing three of their last for, they have bigger problems than percentage). It would come into play if they finish in a big tie on 15 wins, too, either costing them with finals seeding (a road elimination final looks likely) or costing them finals entirely. If every top-nine team reaches 15 wins we would expect the Dockers to miss the eight; they just have to try and reach 16 OR hope another team, most likely the Dogs or Hawks, doesn’t get to 15.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.05 wins, finishing 7th
Longmuir reflects on fiery derby | 08:43
8. GOLD COAST SUNS (12-6, 119.5%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Richmond at People First Stadium
Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: GWS Giants at People First Stadium
Round 24 Part 1: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 24 Part 2: Essendon at People First Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Three to be all-but-certain, two and they’re at risk of missing on percentage
This is officially the Suns’ best ever season and, if they can just win three of their last five games, they’re playing finals. And we would have them favourites in all five of those games. Remarkably Damien Hardwick’s men have now beaten the top three teams on the ladder; all at home, and two of them in very narrow circumstances, but they all count for four points on the ladder. Those wins are going to be the difference between them playing finals and missing out, because a more regulation 12 or 13-win season where the Suns just beat the bad teams but failed against the contenders wouldn’t have been enough in 2025. A remarkable top-four finish is achievable; if they win four of their last five, they’ll need to hope Brisbane or Geelong stumble a couple of times (most likely Brisbane), but if they win all five they should get there.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.5 wins, finishing 5th
Dimma proud & heaps praise on Witts | 08:15
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-8, 132.6%)
Remaining games
Round 21: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Four to be all-but-certain, three and they’re a slim chance
Strangely enough their season might’ve been ruined in the fourth quarter on Friday night; not because of anything that happened in the Dogs’ domination of Essendon, but because at the same time, GWS was producing an absurd turnaround to beat Sydney. The Bulldogs really could’ve used a Giants loss… or a Freo loss… or a Suns loss… or a Hawks loss… and instead got NONE of them. They still have a path to September because with their excellent percentage, they should win any tie on 15 wins. Simply win all their games and they’ll be fine; but if they even lose once, the Dogs are in big trouble. Hawthorn is a realistic chance of getting stuck on 14 with them, but Geelong, GWS, Fremantle and Gold Coast all play enough bottom-nine teams who they should definitely beat to reach 15. Even beating the Giants or Dockers wouldn’t guarantee the Dogs can catch them at this point; whoever finishes ninth will likely be the best team to ever miss the finals under the top-eight system… and that just sounds like a Bulldogs thing, doesn’t it?
Fox Footy’s projection: 14 wins, finishing 9th
Bevo talks Darcy & Naughton combo | 09:24
WON’T OR CAN’T PLAY FINALS
10. SYDNEY SWANS (9-10, 93.9%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Essendon at the SCG
Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Round 23: Geelong at the SCG
Round 24: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest
How many more wins do they need to play finals? Four and pray
It may seem slightly harsh putting the Swans here, but just look at the numbers. They can get to 13 wins, but can’t realistically catch any team already there due to percentage. To play finals, they must win out while neither of the Bulldogs or Suns reach 13 wins. Which would mean the Suns losing to both Richmond and Essendon at home (plus losing all their other games). Which won’t happen.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.4 wins, finishing 10th
‘They scored easily’: Cox on derby loss | 06:32
11. PORT ADELAIDE (8-11, 83.2%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 9.65 wins, finishing 11th
Ken: ‘Didn’t wave the white flag’ | 08:24
12. CARLTON (7-12, 93.3%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Essendon at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest
Fox Footy’s projection: 8.9 wins, finishing 12th
Voss “disappointed” in farewell loss | 11:30
13. MELBOURNE (6-13, 90%)
Remaining games
Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.7 wins, finishing 14th
Goody states May is ‘devastated’ by ban | 02:29
14. ST KILDA (6-13, 86.4%)
Remaining games
Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Richmond at the MCG
Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest
Fox Footy’s projection: 8.45 wins, finishing 13th
Greene & Hogan on ‘all-time’ HT spray | 01:49
15. ESSENDON (6-12, 71.7%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 24 Part 1: Carlton at the MCG
Round 24 Part 2: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 6.85 wins, finishing 15th
Scott sympathises with ‘frustrated’ star | 09:48
16. RICHMOND (5-14, 68.1%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at the MCG
Round 23: North Melbourne at Ninja Stadium
Round 24: Geelong at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest
Fox Footy’s projection: 5.85 wins, finishing 17th
Papley’s gesture that sparked carnage! | 00:48
17. NORTH MELBOURNE (4-14-1, 72.8%)
Remaining games
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval
Round 23: Richmond at Ninja Stadium
Round 24: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 6 wins, finishing 16th
Clarko reflects on dark night for Roos | 11:11
18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-18, 63.5%)
Remaining games
Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 1.7 wins, finishing 18th
McQualter praises ‘selfless’ Harley Reid | 09:47